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Team Rankings Out

Iowa vs Okie State
125: Iowa 4-0
133: Iowa 7-0
141: Iowa 7-3
149: Iowa 10-3
157: Iowa 10-6
165: Iowa 10-9
174: Okie State 12-10
184: Iowa 13-12
197: Okie State 15-13
285: Iowa 16-15

Should be one hell of a dual again this year
 
Iowa vs Penn State

125: Iowa 3-0
133: Iowa 6-0
141: Iowa 6-3
149: Tied 6-6
157: PSU 9-6
165: PSU 12-6
174: PSU 12-9
184: PSU 15-9 (most important match of the dual)
197: PSU 18-9
285: PSU 18-12
 
Iowa vs Okie State
125: Iowa 4-0
133: Iowa 7-0
141: Iowa 7-3
149: Iowa 10-3
157: Iowa 10-6
165: Iowa 10-9
174: Okie State 12-10
184: Iowa 13-12
197: Okie State 15-13
285: Iowa 16-15

Should be one hell of a dual again this year
Iowa has a solid chance to win 57,65,and 74. OSU has a solid chance to take 84.
 
Iowa vs Ohio State

125: Iowa 4-0
133: Iowa 7-0
141: Iowa 7-3
149: Iowa 7-6
157: Iowa 10-6
165: Iowa 13-6 (could be more with Marinelli)
174: Iowa 13-9
184: Iowa 16-9
197: Iowa 16-12
285: Iowa 16-15 (Stoll needs to avoid the major)
 
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Putting PSU at #6 is ridiculous. In the writeup, CP states that he is only giving PSU 7.5 team pts for the combined efforts of the 7 wrestlers outside of Retherford, Nolf and Nickal. This is an absurd assumption. CP offers up that it may be too low, and then states that PSU is still "the team to beat." Right... sounds like #6 all right.

My sense from this is that FLO has some pro PSU leanings (Willie has downplayed the quality of recruits Cael gets in the past, and attributes PSU's success to Cael "developing" those top 10 p4p guys that PSU has been inundated with). Any discussion about the quality of recruits Cael starts with is simply "whining."

I can see it now.... when PSU gets more than 7.5pts out of the team outside of Retherford, Nolf, and Nickal, we'll then hear how great Coach Cael was in developing such lowly talent.
 
Putting PSU at #6 is ridiculous. In the writeup, CP states that he is only giving PSU 7.5 team pts for the combined efforts of the 7 wrestlers outside of Retherford, Nolf and Nickal. This is an absurd assumption. CP offers up that it may be too low, and then states that PSU is still "the team to beat." Right... sounds like #6 all right.
When Flo uses a flawed methodology for preseason individual rankings, they'll end up with a flawed preseason team ranking as well. I think a little more intuition and investigative reporting could be used to gauge the potential of stud freshmen. There aren't more than 15-20 stud freshmen that warrant a closer scrutiny in preseason so that the rankings are more believable. That number does not seem overwhelming to me when you have a couple months to prepare the rankings and do this for a living 24/7.
 
Putting PSU at #6 is ridiculous. In the writeup, CP states that he is only giving PSU 7.5 team pts for the combined efforts of the 7 wrestlers outside of Retherford, Nolf and Nickal. This is an absurd assumption. CP offers up that it may be too low, and then states that PSU is still "the team to beat." Right... sounds like #6 all right.

My sense from this is that FLO has some pro PSU leanings (Willie has downplayed the quality of recruits Cael gets in the past, and attributes PSU's success to Cael "developing" those top 10 p4p guys that PSU has been inundated with). Any discussion about the quality of recruits Cael starts with is simply "whining."

I can see it now.... when PSU gets more than 7.5pts out of the team outside of Retherford, Nolf, and Nickal, we'll then hear how great Coach Cael was in developing such lowly talent.
You think that PSU being ranked 6th is evidence of PSU bias by Flo? And that it is all an elaborate plan for Flo to praise the almighty Cael when the team does better than 6th? Take off the tinfoil hat and step away from the keyboard.
 
It'd be nice to see tournament point totals used in these rankings. Curious to see how much of a difference a top 8 Marinelli would be.
 
Guys, sheesh. It's the preseason. Preseason rankings are usually based on proven guys returning. OkState returns 7 guys that have finished R12 or higher and also has Brock(was 19-2 with win over Brewer before season ending injury). tOSU returns 6 NCAA qualifers with 1-R12, 1-2x 3rd placer and 3 NCAA Champs.

None of you need me to tell you what Iowa returns. They are VERY CLOSE to the above 2 teams and could be argued ahead of them.

We all know/expect PSU to be better due to their recent history of successful Freshmen. However, how do you fairly rank Suriano(who hasn't wrestled 1 NCAA match), Cortez, Joseph,Rasheed(174?), Cassar(or who is at 197?) and Nevills? That is 60% of their lineup that combines for a NCAA career record of 0-0(Nevills DNQ). That doesn't even include Gulibon, who has been very up and down in his own right.

Halfway through the season, PSU will sort itself out. For now, by the numbers, you can't put PSU higher without being very subjective(I used it correctly again).
 
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PSU at 6 isn't as much of a dig at psu as it shows how competitive the teams are this year. At least 6 teams have the fire power to won it all this year. That said, I still think Penn states the team to beat
 
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I'm certainly not a PSU fan, but they're the defending champs and return a bunch of talent in addition to some great newcomers. Nobody seriously considers them the #6 team and most consider them the favorite. On that basis alone, it's absurd to rank them #6. Maybe 2 or 3, but that's about as far as any self-respecting analyst should go in ranking PSU pre-season.
 
Guys, sheesh. It's the preseason. Preseason rankings are usually based on proven guys returning. OkState returns 7 guys that have finished R12 or higher and also has Brock(was 19-2 with win over Brewer before season ending injury). tOSU returns 6 NCAA qualifers with 1-R12, 1-2x 3rd placer and 3 NCAA Champs.

None of you need me to tell you what Iowa returns. They are VERY CLOSE to the above 2 teams and could be argued ahead of them.

We all know/expect PSU to be better due to their recent history of successful Freshmen. However, how do you fairly rank Suriano(who hasn't wrestled 1 NCAA match), Cortez, Joseph,Rasheed(174?), Cassar(or who is at 197?) and Nevills? That is 60% of their lineup that combines for a NCAA career record of 0-0(Nevills DNQ). That doesn't even include Gulibon, who has been very up and down in his own right.

Halfway through the season, PSU will sort itself out. For now, by the numbers, you can't put PSU higher without being very subjective(I used it correctly again).
I understand what you are saying, but it doesn't require a great deal of subjectivity to know that a Marinelli or a Kemdog or a Suriano will be in the mix come March. Maybe not top 2, but point scorers and maybe more. For that matter, subjectivity was used last year to rank Gulibon #1 preseason. So subjectivity goes both ways, but that word seems to only be uttered when supporting one's position.
 
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We're a bad matchup for tOSU.
Actually, tOSU doesn't look like an elite duel team. I see them doing well at tournaments, but they don't match up well at all against psu, Iowa or ok st
 
Iowa vs Okie State
125: Iowa 4-0
133: Iowa 7-0
141: Iowa 7-3
149: Iowa 10-3
157: Iowa 10-6
165: Iowa 10-9
174: Okie State 12-10
184: Iowa 13-12
197: Okie State 15-13
285: Iowa 16-15

Should be one hell of a dual again this year

Damn... this dual is going to be awesome. I could see matches going either way at 33, 49, 57, 65, 74, and 84. Iowa heavy favorites at 25 & heavy. Okie heavy favorites at 41 and 97. Should be a great one
 
Damn... this dual is going to be awesome. I could see matches going either way at 33, 49, 57, 65, 74, and 84. Iowa heavy favorites at 25 & heavy. Okie heavy favorites at 41 and 97. Should be a great one
It will be fun. I mostly agree, right now with Dayhawks original. IMO Boyd-Brooks will be THE swing match of the dual. Can see Heil opening up and getting a major. Should be great wrestling all around!
 
The outrage over PSU at 6 is funny.

They are rankings, not projections. I don't think anyone feels PSU won't be in the top 4 by March, but you can't rank them above proven commodities based on hype from true freshman/RS freshman.
I agree, the individual rankings are just rankings based on each wrestlers results at the college level. CP states all the time that he thinks this guy or that guy will move up quickly but he can't move them up until they have results. Its really not any different than wrestlestats or SHP. The team rankings are just plug and chug from the individual rankings. After one month they will be drastically different. If you listened to the podcast he has clearly stated this multiple times including eating crow over comments about WIN team rankings. He did state that WIN clearly made mistakes on individuals.
 
The outrage over PSU at 6 is funny.

They are rankings, not projections. I don't think anyone feels PSU won't be in the top 4 by March, but you can't rank them above proven commodities based on hype from true freshman/RS freshman.
So Lee and Hall will rightfully be unranked because someone said you can't rank freshmen? Even though many say they could already AA as high school kids?
 
So Lee and Hall will rightfully be unranked because someone said you can't rank freshmen? Even though many say they could already AA as high school kids?

Yes. They're not unranked because they are freshman; they're unranked because they don't have quality folkstyle wins over anybody at this level.

You really don't understand the difference between a ranking and a projection?
 
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Yes. They're not unranked because they are freshman; they're unranked because they don't have quality folkstyle wins over anybody at this level.

You really don't understand the difference between a ranking and a projection?
Oh, I do indeed. I just think it's quaint when people use past practice without any regard to exceptions or new practices. It's how mistakes are repeated over and over again. If you know something is likely incorrect, change it. Simple concept. It isn't like they are batting a 1,000 on those with histories, so why not take your best shot?

CP knows his rankings are incorrect, so why not make them better by changing how you make preseason rankings? To write an article essentially admitting that you're looking past the elephants in the room is silly thinking imo.
 
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Great. So if these guys are acknowledging that their pre-season team rankings are essentially worthless, the question follows: "Why bother?"

If they're going to make all kinds of caveats about the fallacies of their rankings as they are, they could just as easily base their rankings on common sense and assert the caveat that their rankings aren't necessarily based on college results in the case of great newcomers, but common sense, instead. That kind of ranking is actually worth doing.

This nonsense that has minimal correlation to reality is pretty much a waste of time for the analyst and for the reader.
 
Actually rankings can't be incorrect, they just don't have all of the data yet. CP, SHP, and wrestlestats are all the same on this. The latter two use mathematical models while CP goes through all the results and weighs them against each other. He doesn't mean his rankings are incorrect he means they will change. The example that gets brought up alot is Gullibon last year. First of all he was ranked second behind Henderson, but also there wasn't anyone to rank ahead of him. You could have made an argument for Heil but it was splitting hairs. If a tanker has a set of criteria and sticks to it then it can't be wrong. People can lose and the rankings change based on that, but that doesn't make them wrong.
 
Great. So if these guys are acknowledging that their pre-season team rankings are essentially worthless, the question follows: "Why bother?"

his nonsense that has minimal correlation to reality is pretty much a waste of time for the analyst and for the reader.
Because it gets people to start doing exactly what everyone is doing-reading their article, and talking about it. The only one that matters will come out early March, right after conference tourneys.
 
Because it gets people to start doing exactly what everyone is doing-reading their article, and talking about it. The only one that matters will come out early March, right after conference tourneys.
I would say that one doesn't even really matter, it doesn't affect seeds. It might align with them, but it is just for reading and discussing.
 
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I would say that one doesn't even really matter, it doesn't affect seeds. It might align with them, but it is just for reading and discussing.
the final coaches ranking is one of the seeding criteria;

Criteria Weighted Percentage Head-to-head 25% Quality wins 20% Common opponents 10% RPI 10% Qualifying placement 10% Coaches rank 15% Win percentage 10%
 
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PSU poster (jtothemfp) on BWI posted a pretty interesting tidbit regarding their 174-197 situation from credible sources.
_____________________________________________________________________________
"
Since it's clear to me now I'll never get a BSD post written about it...here's the info I got, from 3 different highly credible sources. For each bullet, first number = number of confirmed sources and second number = my confidence in its validity, out of 10:
  • Nickal only certified at 184, cannot compete collegiately at 174 at all this season. (3 / 10)
  • McCutcheon certified at 174. His minimum allowed weight is 174.0. On the dot. (2 / 10)
  • McCutcheon & Nickal will wrestle off for 184 next week, 10/18 - 10/20. (2 / 10)
  • Morelli certified at 174, but not 165. (1 / 9)
  • Cassar hasn't been cleared to compete (1 / 10)
Here are some personal guesses / takes from all of that:
  • Nickal winning 184 is not at all automatic
  • I'd guess Cael is....let's call it disappointed... with Nickal for not certing at 174
  • Probably also pissed at Morelli for not certing at 165
  • Very curious how Cael manages this situation--even more so if McCutcheon wins whatever the coaches structure the wrestleoffs as, across three days. Although then my curiosity will include how Nickal manages the situation
  • McCutcheon cutting to 174 would be brutal af, but is still considered realistically viable--for now--by himself and the coaches
  • If Nickal wins, McCutcheon will probably try to cut to 174 and compete there in Reno. I'm curious af to picture what cutting to 174.0, but not to 173.9 looks like
  • Cassar may not be cleared all year
  • For 197, if Nickal wins, I'd guess Stout will start the season. If McCutcheon wins, I'd guess Nickal will start the season
  • I'd guess McCutcheon *can* make 174 for Reno, but will be so uncomfortable that he'll abandon it before season's end."

    _______________________________________________________________________

    This tells me that PSU's lineup is still kind of a big question mark from 174-197. Obviously Bo is going to be good wherever he goes, but I mean regarding to which weight class everyone is going. Personally, I thought PSU's strongest lineup was with Bo at 174 for one more year, but this helps us a bit IMO.
 
Where do you rank guys with a 0-0 record? Projections and rankings aren't the same thing
they can be the same thing. It's semantics that separates them. In reality, they are the same. Ranking a guy #1 says that you project them to be #1 at the end of the year. If that is not true, then why do it? Who cares that you rank a guy #1 in October. I want the best assessment as to who the best is by end of year.
 
they can be the same thing. It's semantics that separates them. In reality, they are the same. Ranking a guy #1 says that you project them to be #1 at the end of the year. If that is not true, then why do it? Who cares that you rank a guy #1 in October. I want the best assessment as to who the best is by end of year.
No it doesn't
 
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