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Team Rankings

Eternal Return

HB Heisman
Oct 15, 2009
6,098
6,507
113
I was reading through some threads about team rankings (cough, cough, iowalaw, cough, cough) so I decided to look back at all the Rivals B10 rankings (plus ISU's) from 2011 to 2015 to see how everyone stacked up during Iowa's 12-2 season last year. What I found was ... fascinating.

Iowa:
2011: 31
2012: 44
2013: 51
2014: 56
2015: 59

That's the team that ran the table in the regular season and wound up ranked #10 in the country in the final AP poll. Records from 2011 to 2105: 7-6, 4-8, 8-5, 7-6, 12-2. You could argue that Iowa performed better than their recruiting rankings every year except for 2012 ... which speaks for coaching and the character of the players recruited and developed under Ferencz and staff ... 2015 was just beyond anyone's expectation and truly speaks to just how good this coaching staff is with the kids that they get on campus.

Iowa State:
2011: 54
2012: 95
2013: 58
2014: 56
2015: 67

Records from 2011 through 2015: 6-7, 6-7, 3-9, 2-10, 3-9. As bad as those recruiting rankings are, they're only somewhat worse than Iowa's if you throw out the 2012 year. And yet ... they still managed to perform below even those putrid recruiting rankings. Coaching says it all.

Cheeseheads:
2011: 42
2012: 60
2013: 54
2014: 33
2015: 44

Somewhat better recruiting results compared to Iowa and the teams prior to last year showed that, but what's not shown was the quality of recruiting WI had prior to 2011. Still, they get high marks for performing at or above their recruiting rankings year-in and year-out. They beat USC in a bowl game last year, too, and USC had at least 3 top 10 recruiting classes on that squad. I'm seeing a pattern relating to quality of coaching trumping recruiting rankings here (within certain limits, at least).

Purple Putrid People (aka, NW):
2011: 97
2012: 64
2013: 55
2014: 68
2015: 56

No wonder the Hawks crushed them by 30. But still, another team that gets on-field results superior to their recruiting rankings. Somehow this team beat Stanford last year. First game of the season or not, holding the Cardinal to 6 points? That's impressive coaching. Michigan, Iowa, and Tennessee exposed them, but, as we shall see next, not every team with good recruits was able to do so.

The Big Red Stain (aka, Discarded Tampons)
2011: 16
2012: 26
2013: 17
2014: 32
2015: 28

Talk about doing a little with a lot. Pellini did underperform, but not as badly as Riley. Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin all beat Nebraska last year and yet their recruiting rankings were crap. And even with those rankings Nebraska still hasn't managed to sniff a B10 championship game out of the supposedly weak West. Really bad coaching? You betcha!

Goofers:
2011: 55
2012: 78
2013: 61
2014: 54
2015: 53

This is the one team whose on-field results pretty closely match recruiting rankings. "They are who we thought they were!"

Purdue (so bad I don't have the heart to make fun of them):
2011: NR (I couldn't find a ranking, anyway)
2012: 34
2013: 56
2014: 71
2015: 71

I can't tell if they're underperforming or not. Other than a decent class in 2012, they have sucked at everything ... and yet they beat the Big Red Stain in a shootout last year. That alone is worth giving Purdue a pass on total suckiness.

Crying Illini:
2011: 44
2012: 69
2013: 48
2014: 72
2015: 48

Pretty bad. And yet I think their on-field performance was even worse. Once again, horrible coaching.

Now the East:

Sparty:
2011: 32
2012: 42
2013: 47
2014: 22
2015: 22

Wow. Talk about proving recruiting rankings are meaningless. I don't like D'Antonio as a persona, but there's no questioning his coaching abilities. Probably the only coach on this list who is truly worthy of being called a better coach than Ferentz ... and yet Iowa, with their significantly lower recruiting rankings, nearly upset MSU in the B10CG. But D'Antonio has consistently gotten way more out of his players than the rankings indicate he should be able. Coincidence that he modeled his program on what Ferentz was doing at Iowa when he took the helm? Hmmm, I think not.

O$U:
2011: 12
2012: 4
2013: 2
2014: 3
2015: 9

One recruiting class outside the top ten, 3 in the top 5. I mean, if recruiting rankings mean anything at all, Ohio State should be in the running for a national title every year no matter what (unless coached by the clowns at the Big Red Stain). To Urban's credit, he's basically done what you would expect if recruiting rankings have meaning. Honestly, I think D'Antonio and Ferentz get even better results with these same players. But certainly Meyer hasn't underperformed in the scheme of things ... except for losing at home to D'Antonio without MSU's starting QB playing. Again, I think D'Antonio and F. could do more with the same.

Meatchicken:
2011: 22
2012: 7
2013: 5
2014: 31
2015: 51

Wow, were Michigan's past coaches BAD! Harbaugh essentially did what a coach should be able to do with that level of recruiting talent on hand. RS sophs and RS juniors from top 10 recruiting rankings plus RS seniors from top 25 rankings? Yeah, 10-3 should be expected. So Harbaugh at least looks like a coach who can do something with what he's got and is CLEARLY heads an tails above the putrid excuse for coaches who preceded him. I mean, it's firkin Michigan! How can you NOT win at that school?! Well, it's been proven that planting tree stumps as coaches there just doesn't work. Who knew?

Pedo State:
2011: 37
2012: 55
2013: 42
2014: 25
2015: 15

Hard to judge with all the pedo problems, but the coaching is definitely not that great. Underperforming. According to recruiting rankings the past two years they should start to turn it around but ... coaching.

Indiana:
2011: 64
2012: 71
2013: 57
2014: 39
2015: 50

Honestly, impressive on-field results given the rankings and the competition they face every year. They took Michigan to double OT last year, stayed with Ohio State for a bit, and lost a number of other close games to good teams. A really good offensive coach. If they could land a really good DC they might be a scary opponent in the future.

Turtles:
2011: 45
2012: 36
2013: 33
2014: 48
2015: 55

Better recruiting than Iowa (in terms of rankings). Underperforming on the field. Bad coaching. Shitty offensive scheme. Bleh. The new coach is recruiting up a storm, let's see if the recruiting rankings show up on the field. (I have my doubts even with the new coach).

Rutgers:
2011: 33
2012: 25
2013: 44
2014: 58
2015: 54

Wow. Truly awful results on the field given those recruiting rankings which are, again, better than Iowa's over that span. Horrible, horrible coaching. Ash may be just what they need. He might even be able to turn it around quickly (in terms of getting bowl eligible) and he's certainly recruiting well. We'll see. I can't see how he could do worse! But, I think both Maryland and Rutgers along with Iowa and Michigan State demonstrate how much MORE IMPORTANT having a good coaching staff is compared to landing good recruiting classes. If you can do both, watch out.
 
Purdue has a class ranked 34? That is better than Minnesota, Northwestern, Indiana and Illinois. And equal to the tops classes that Iowa, Wisconsin and Maryland had. I'd hold off on labeling them horrible. A couple in the mid 70s though, ouch.
 
It might be more interesting to compare a given year's performance on the field versus a rolling average of the previous four (or five) years' recruiting class rankings. It's still awfully simplistic and doesn't account for transfers, but it would better account for the fact that classes can be unbalanced and teams are made up of a mix of ages. To draw any real conclusions from this, though, you'd need more years worth of data.

And ideally you would weight classes by playing time, but that would take a lot more work.
 
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Actually, Eternal, I would argue that your statistics utterly disprove your point. If you look at the players who made up the teams from 2011-2015 (not counting 2015 recruits because they were not a factor in those seasons), the avg recruiting rank was around 45. Our median win/loss record from 2011-2015 was 7-6. I would say a 45th ranked recruiting class is dead on with a 7-6 win/loss record. Stars, therefore, do matter. 2015 was an amazing anomaly, brought on by a reallllly fortuitous schedule and a once in a decade QB. It was as much brought on by great coaching as the 4-8 year was brought on by poor coaching. Year in and year out, if our recruiting rankings stay in the 45 range, our records will stay in the 7-6 to 8-5 range, depending on schedule.

[QUOTE="Eternal Return
Iowa:
2011: 31
2012: 44
2013: 51
2014: 56

That's the team that ran the table in the regular season and wound up ranked #10 in the country in the final AP poll. Records from 2011 to 2105: 7-6, 4-8, 8-5, 7-6, 12-2.
 
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