There might still be a path to the four-team College Football Playoff for a little more than a dozen programs.
Some of the 13 remaining contenders require a fair bit of chaos, an element largely absent this season. Meanwhile, a selection completely devoid of argument — picking four perfect power conference champs — remains a possibility with less than a month remaining in the season.
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As we enter Week 11, here’s a rundown of what probably needs to happen for each contender’s playoff hopes to remain in play:
CFP rankings stay steady ahead of a potentially momentous weekend
Just keep on winning
The explanation for all five of these teams is the same: An undefeated power conference team is not going to be excluded from the semifinals — especially because there isn’t an unblemished Big 12 team left on the board.
(An asterisk means the team has not yet clinched a berth in its conference championship game.)
Florida State (9-0, 7-0 ACC)
Remaining schedule: Miami, North Alabama, at Florida, ACC title game
Georgia (9-0, 6-0 SEC)
Remaining schedule: Mississippi, at Tennessee, at Georgia Tech, SEC title game*
Michigan (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten)
Remaining schedule: at Penn State, at Maryland, Ohio State, Big Ten title game*
Ohio State (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten)
Remaining schedule: Michigan State, Minnesota, at Michigan, Big Ten title game*
Washington (9-0, 6-0 Pac-12)
Remaining schedule: Utah, at Oregon State, Washington State, Pac-12 title game*
Win out and get one assist
Alabama (8-1, 6-0 SEC): A 12-1 SEC champion Crimson Tide getting left out? Suppose Florida State, Washington and the Michigan/Ohio State winner all get to 13-0, and Texas (which won in Tuscaloosa in September) finishes 12-1 with a Big 12 title. Some pretzel logic would be required to get Alabama into the playoff at that point.
Remaining schedule: at Kentucky, Chattanooga, at Auburn, SEC title game*
Oregon (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12): The Ducks might not even need a hand if they plow through their next four games, which could include the chance in the Pac-12 title game to avenge their loss to Washington and create an opening in the top four. But might a 12-1 Texas team bump Oregon? Doesn’t seem impossible.
Remaining schedule: Southern California, at Arizona State, Oregon State, Pac-12 title game*
Texas (8-1, 5-1 Big 12): The Longhorns would get squeezed out with four undefeated teams left on the board. But their victory at Alabama is a major asset with the potential to carry significant value if a one-loss team must be included.
Remaining schedule: at Texas Christian, at Iowa State, Texas Tech, Big 12 title game*
Win out and get two assists
Mississippi (8-1, 5-1 SEC): The biggest impediment for the Rebels is winning at Georgia this week. But even then, it faces a similar predicament to Alabama’s. Could Mississippi hopscotch either an undefeated ACC, Big Ten or Pac-12 champ or a 12-1 Texas? And worse for the Rebels, they lost to Alabama and can’t make the SEC title game unless the Crimson Tide loses twice. Come to think of it, that means Mississippi probably needs three assists. But it definitely needs two teams in front of it to lose.
Remaining schedule: at Georgia, Louisiana Monroe, at Mississippi State, SEC title game*
Penn State (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten): A victory over Michigan would go a long way — especially if the Wolverines hold serve at home against Ohio State later this month. If Penn State can forge a three-way tie with Michigan and Ohio State at 8-1 in the conference, the other assist it needs is to win the tiebreaker. And for that to happen, it could use the West Division teams it has handled (Illinois, Iowa and Northwestern) to win as much as possible over the next three weeks.
Remaining schedule: Michigan, Rutgers, at Michigan State, Big Ten title game*
Svrluga: Let JMU play in a bowl game. It’s just common sense.
Win out and get lots of help
Louisville (9-1, 6-1 ACC): Everyone the Cardinals defeated has at least three losses already. That’s not the underpinnings of a great argument for a one-loss team, even one that would have to go through Florida State to get to 12-1. Louisville needs a scenario with no more than four other power conference teams (one of those being Florida State) holding one loss or a perfect record.
Remaining schedule: at Miami, Kentucky, ACC title game*
Oregon State (7-2, 4-2 Pac-12): No two-loss team has reached a playoff yet, so it’s a long shot for the Beavers. But if they could secure a total of three victories against Oregon and Washington as part of a finishing push? There might be a case … if Alabama, Mississippi, Penn State and Texas all lose, along with the eventual Michigan/Ohio State loser also taking on an additional stumble down the stretch. Even with that, a loss to a Washington State bunch that has flopped over the past month would have to be ignored or discounted. That’s a tough ask.
Remaining schedule: Stanford, Washington, at Oregon, Pac-12 title game*
Tennessee (7-2, 3-2 SEC): Not only do the Volunteers require pretty much all the assistance Oregon State does, they also need Georgia to lose to Mississippi to create a path into the SEC title game. A 10-2 record with a loss to a pedestrian Florida team just won’t be enough.
Remaining schedule: at Missouri, Georgia, Vanderbilt, SEC title game*
Some of the 13 remaining contenders require a fair bit of chaos, an element largely absent this season. Meanwhile, a selection completely devoid of argument — picking four perfect power conference champs — remains a possibility with less than a month remaining in the season.
Sign up for The Sports Moment, a newsletter for the biggest sports news
As we enter Week 11, here’s a rundown of what probably needs to happen for each contender’s playoff hopes to remain in play:
CFP rankings stay steady ahead of a potentially momentous weekend
Just keep on winning
The explanation for all five of these teams is the same: An undefeated power conference team is not going to be excluded from the semifinals — especially because there isn’t an unblemished Big 12 team left on the board.
(An asterisk means the team has not yet clinched a berth in its conference championship game.)
Florida State (9-0, 7-0 ACC)
Remaining schedule: Miami, North Alabama, at Florida, ACC title game
Georgia (9-0, 6-0 SEC)
Remaining schedule: Mississippi, at Tennessee, at Georgia Tech, SEC title game*
Michigan (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten)
Remaining schedule: at Penn State, at Maryland, Ohio State, Big Ten title game*
Ohio State (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten)
Remaining schedule: Michigan State, Minnesota, at Michigan, Big Ten title game*
Washington (9-0, 6-0 Pac-12)
Remaining schedule: Utah, at Oregon State, Washington State, Pac-12 title game*
Win out and get one assist
Alabama (8-1, 6-0 SEC): A 12-1 SEC champion Crimson Tide getting left out? Suppose Florida State, Washington and the Michigan/Ohio State winner all get to 13-0, and Texas (which won in Tuscaloosa in September) finishes 12-1 with a Big 12 title. Some pretzel logic would be required to get Alabama into the playoff at that point.
Remaining schedule: at Kentucky, Chattanooga, at Auburn, SEC title game*
Oregon (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12): The Ducks might not even need a hand if they plow through their next four games, which could include the chance in the Pac-12 title game to avenge their loss to Washington and create an opening in the top four. But might a 12-1 Texas team bump Oregon? Doesn’t seem impossible.
Remaining schedule: Southern California, at Arizona State, Oregon State, Pac-12 title game*
Texas (8-1, 5-1 Big 12): The Longhorns would get squeezed out with four undefeated teams left on the board. But their victory at Alabama is a major asset with the potential to carry significant value if a one-loss team must be included.
Remaining schedule: at Texas Christian, at Iowa State, Texas Tech, Big 12 title game*
Win out and get two assists
Mississippi (8-1, 5-1 SEC): The biggest impediment for the Rebels is winning at Georgia this week. But even then, it faces a similar predicament to Alabama’s. Could Mississippi hopscotch either an undefeated ACC, Big Ten or Pac-12 champ or a 12-1 Texas? And worse for the Rebels, they lost to Alabama and can’t make the SEC title game unless the Crimson Tide loses twice. Come to think of it, that means Mississippi probably needs three assists. But it definitely needs two teams in front of it to lose.
Remaining schedule: at Georgia, Louisiana Monroe, at Mississippi State, SEC title game*
Penn State (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten): A victory over Michigan would go a long way — especially if the Wolverines hold serve at home against Ohio State later this month. If Penn State can forge a three-way tie with Michigan and Ohio State at 8-1 in the conference, the other assist it needs is to win the tiebreaker. And for that to happen, it could use the West Division teams it has handled (Illinois, Iowa and Northwestern) to win as much as possible over the next three weeks.
Remaining schedule: Michigan, Rutgers, at Michigan State, Big Ten title game*
Svrluga: Let JMU play in a bowl game. It’s just common sense.
Win out and get lots of help
Louisville (9-1, 6-1 ACC): Everyone the Cardinals defeated has at least three losses already. That’s not the underpinnings of a great argument for a one-loss team, even one that would have to go through Florida State to get to 12-1. Louisville needs a scenario with no more than four other power conference teams (one of those being Florida State) holding one loss or a perfect record.
Remaining schedule: at Miami, Kentucky, ACC title game*
Oregon State (7-2, 4-2 Pac-12): No two-loss team has reached a playoff yet, so it’s a long shot for the Beavers. But if they could secure a total of three victories against Oregon and Washington as part of a finishing push? There might be a case … if Alabama, Mississippi, Penn State and Texas all lose, along with the eventual Michigan/Ohio State loser also taking on an additional stumble down the stretch. Even with that, a loss to a Washington State bunch that has flopped over the past month would have to be ignored or discounted. That’s a tough ask.
Remaining schedule: Stanford, Washington, at Oregon, Pac-12 title game*
Tennessee (7-2, 3-2 SEC): Not only do the Volunteers require pretty much all the assistance Oregon State does, they also need Georgia to lose to Mississippi to create a path into the SEC title game. A 10-2 record with a loss to a pedestrian Florida team just won’t be enough.
Remaining schedule: at Missouri, Georgia, Vanderbilt, SEC title game*
