With 5 teams projected to go 13-7 // 12-8 based on KenPom, I took a look through their stats to see what stands out and why each may fail. In order of current standings:
Michigan (4-0)
Their offense revolves around a freshman. That isn't ideal. Hunter Dickinson looks good so far, but while Austin Davis is sidelined, they don't have a true backup center. They also seem to play more inside the arc than the Michigan teams under Beilein. This makes me wonder if they aren't really built to play from behind, as they don't have as many options to stretch the floor and score quickly. Michigan is my most vulnerable contender, as their 2-0 has come against Penn St. and Nebraska, who are a combined... 0-4.
Update: Dickinson is looking really good, although most of the pieces of games I've caught have been wide open dunks as teams leave him to help on defense. Combined opponent B1G record: 4-13
Illinois (4-1)
Illinois is good. Very good, according to their adjusted efficiency margin (+23.97 pts/100). With Kofi Cockburn in the middle and Ayo Dosunmu on the perimeter, it's hard to find a lot of flaws with this team. However, I think they look better than they actually are. Through 10 games, Illinois is shooting 42.6% from beyond the arc. Did a team that shot 30% last year suddenly find their stroke? I'm not so sure. I'm willing to accept that they may be a better shooting team this year, but looking at their players, let's see how they're shooting so far:
Ayo Dosunmu: 2020 - 44.4%; career (including 2020) - 34.3%
Da'Monte Williams: 2020 - 69.6%; career - 33.8%
They also have Giorgi Bezhanishvili at 2/2 and Trent Frazier shooting 40.9% (career 36.2%); so are they truly good shooters, or are they just on a heater to start the year? I think it's more likely that this team will be closer to 35% than 40% by the end of the year.
Update: In their only game since the original post, they shot 35% (7/20) from 3. Combined B1G opponent records: 10-13
Rutgers (3-3)
Similar to Illinois, I think Rutgers is just starting on a bit of a shooting heater... here are their shooters:
Ron Harper Jr: 2020 - 50%, career 35%
Jacob Young: 2020- 40%, career 27%
Montez Mathis: 2020 - 39.4%, career 29.6%
Paul Mulcahy: 2020 - 38.5%, career 31.4%
The Scarlet Knights also aren't a good free throw shooting team (62.4% overall), but in a 5 point win over Purdue they shot 82.4% and in their upset over Illinois they shot 69.4%. Will they continue to get their better free throw performances in close games that make the difference between wins and losses?
Update: 0/2 week for Rutgers with a combined 10-29 from the FT line. Combined B1G opponent records: 14-15
Iowa (3-1)
Defense, defense, defense. We know we can score, and we know about Luka Garza, but can we actually defend good offensive teams? We're currently 11th of 14 B1G teams in conference play, and hovering in the 90s for nationwide efficiency.
Update: Up to 9th in B1G defensive efficiency. Combined B1G opponent records: 11-10
Wisconsin (3-1)
I think we'll know a lot more about Wisconsin after their game against Minnesota on NYE. They are 2-1, but their wins are against Nebraska and Michigan St. (combined 0-5). They've also suffered a home loss already. While this is a solid team all around (as almost all Wisconsin teams are), they aren't great at winning the close games. Teams that can stick around with Wisconsin have been able to deliver, but in their wins, they just grind teams away with their slow pace and execution. What happens when they have to play catch up? Can they do anything other than grind the game to a halt? They also only go 7-8 deep, so what happens if any of their contributors get COVID?
Update: In a pretty non-competitive game against Minnesota, Wisconsin looks the part of a contender, although they did allow the final margin to shrink to 12. Combined B1G opponent records: 6-13
Michigan (4-0)
Their offense revolves around a freshman. That isn't ideal. Hunter Dickinson looks good so far, but while Austin Davis is sidelined, they don't have a true backup center. They also seem to play more inside the arc than the Michigan teams under Beilein. This makes me wonder if they aren't really built to play from behind, as they don't have as many options to stretch the floor and score quickly. Michigan is my most vulnerable contender, as their 2-0 has come against Penn St. and Nebraska, who are a combined... 0-4.
Update: Dickinson is looking really good, although most of the pieces of games I've caught have been wide open dunks as teams leave him to help on defense. Combined opponent B1G record: 4-13
Illinois (4-1)
Illinois is good. Very good, according to their adjusted efficiency margin (+23.97 pts/100). With Kofi Cockburn in the middle and Ayo Dosunmu on the perimeter, it's hard to find a lot of flaws with this team. However, I think they look better than they actually are. Through 10 games, Illinois is shooting 42.6% from beyond the arc. Did a team that shot 30% last year suddenly find their stroke? I'm not so sure. I'm willing to accept that they may be a better shooting team this year, but looking at their players, let's see how they're shooting so far:
Ayo Dosunmu: 2020 - 44.4%; career (including 2020) - 34.3%
Da'Monte Williams: 2020 - 69.6%; career - 33.8%
They also have Giorgi Bezhanishvili at 2/2 and Trent Frazier shooting 40.9% (career 36.2%); so are they truly good shooters, or are they just on a heater to start the year? I think it's more likely that this team will be closer to 35% than 40% by the end of the year.
Update: In their only game since the original post, they shot 35% (7/20) from 3. Combined B1G opponent records: 10-13
Rutgers (3-3)
Similar to Illinois, I think Rutgers is just starting on a bit of a shooting heater... here are their shooters:
Ron Harper Jr: 2020 - 50%, career 35%
Jacob Young: 2020- 40%, career 27%
Montez Mathis: 2020 - 39.4%, career 29.6%
Paul Mulcahy: 2020 - 38.5%, career 31.4%
The Scarlet Knights also aren't a good free throw shooting team (62.4% overall), but in a 5 point win over Purdue they shot 82.4% and in their upset over Illinois they shot 69.4%. Will they continue to get their better free throw performances in close games that make the difference between wins and losses?
Update: 0/2 week for Rutgers with a combined 10-29 from the FT line. Combined B1G opponent records: 14-15
Iowa (3-1)
Defense, defense, defense. We know we can score, and we know about Luka Garza, but can we actually defend good offensive teams? We're currently 11th of 14 B1G teams in conference play, and hovering in the 90s for nationwide efficiency.
Update: Up to 9th in B1G defensive efficiency. Combined B1G opponent records: 11-10
Wisconsin (3-1)
I think we'll know a lot more about Wisconsin after their game against Minnesota on NYE. They are 2-1, but their wins are against Nebraska and Michigan St. (combined 0-5). They've also suffered a home loss already. While this is a solid team all around (as almost all Wisconsin teams are), they aren't great at winning the close games. Teams that can stick around with Wisconsin have been able to deliver, but in their wins, they just grind teams away with their slow pace and execution. What happens when they have to play catch up? Can they do anything other than grind the game to a halt? They also only go 7-8 deep, so what happens if any of their contributors get COVID?
Update: In a pretty non-competitive game against Minnesota, Wisconsin looks the part of a contender, although they did allow the final margin to shrink to 12. Combined B1G opponent records: 6-13
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