The Truth’s Bracketology

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

This includes an update through Sunday’s games. There will be wild disagreement with a certain team’s seeding but one bracketologist agrees with me. Also, if someone can still put Iowa as an 11 seed then my crazy ass can put them where I did. Let’s thank Penn St for moving up to 75 in the NET rankings, probably temporarily, for another Quadrant 1 win for Iowa.

1 Duke
16 Sam Houston/Prairie View

8 Kansas St
9 Cincinnati

5 LSU
12 Lipscomb

4 Wisconsin
13 Yale

6 Nevada
11 Seton Hall

3 Kentucky
14 Radford

7 Villanova
10 Syracuse

2 Gonzaga
15 UC Irvine

1 Michigan
16 Bucknell

8 NC State
9 Texas

5 Louisville
12 Minnesota/Arizona

4 Marquette
13 Vermont

6 Nebraska
11 San Francisco

3 Houston
14 Texas St

7 Mississippi
10 Ohio St

2 Kansas
15 S Dakota St

1 Virginia
16 Rider

8 Indiana
9 Wofford

5 Virginia Tech
12 VCU

4 Iowa
13 New Mexico St

6 Oklahoma
11 UCF

3 Maryland
14 Loyola Chicago

7 Iowa St
10 St John’s

2 Tennessee
15 N Kentucky

1 Michigan St
16 Norfolk/Robert Morris

8 Florida St
9 TCU

5 Miss St
12 Murray St

4 Buffalo
13 Hofstra

6 Purdue
11 Florida/Butler

3 Texas Tech
14 N Texas

7 Auburn
10 Washington

2 North Carolina
15 Montana

 

[SotaHawk87]

Meh.. not that controversial I’ve seen Iowa anywhere from 12-19 on most seed lists.. I do however think there’s a 0% chance Iowa plays Iowa St second round

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

NCAA would be wise to pod both in DSM if reasonable. Would guarantee a sellout.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Meh.. not that controversial I’ve seen Iowa anywhere from 12-19 on most seed lists.. I do however think there’s a 0% chance Iowa plays Iowa St second round

You’re right about the Iowa/ISU matchup. It would be a ton of fun though, especially with the sweet 16 on the line.

 

[Kurt Warner]

That was my most favorite shot in my time following the hawks. It was just plain awesome

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

That was my most favorite shot in my time following the hawks. It was just plain awesome

It was the best of times (Gamble’s shot), it was the worst of times (UNLV 2nd half). We had the team to win it all that year too. Gah!

 

[owenhawk]

NCAA would be wise to pod both in DSM if reasonable. Would guarantee a sellout.

It’s already a sellout according to the website that is selling the tickets.

 

[NI hawk]

NCAA would be wise to pod both in DSM if reasonable. Would guarantee a sellout.

I have been thinking the same thing. 3-6 or 4-5 2nd round.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

It’s already a sellout according to the website that is selling the tickets.

I looked for tickets over the weekend too. The cheapest I could find were $300 each the full session.

 

[owenhawk]

I looked for tickets over the weekend too. The cheapest I could find were $300 each the full session.

Stub mHub has tickets for Session 1 around $90 last I looked.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Stub mHub has tickets for Session 1 around $90 last I looked.

Yeah, that looks right. I was going to go to all sessions including Saturday. Would be a really fun time.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

I decided to redo the brackets this week through Sunday’s games based on what is found in the team sheets. I also increased the weighting of the NET rankings.

Quadrant 1 H 1-15 N 1-25 A 1-40
Quadrant 1 H 16-30 N 26-50 A 41-75

Quadrant 2 H 31-55 N 51-75 A 76-100
Quadrant 2 H 56-75 N 76-100 A 101-135

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Conference breakdown

B1G 10
ACC 8
Big 12 7
SEC 7
Big East 5
AAC 3
PAC 12 2
WCC 2

First 4 out
Alabama
Utah St
Temple
Baylor

Next 4 out
Clemson
Arizona St
Oregon
Fresno St

 

[Underscore2]

I was going to knock down that 4 seed which seems high at this point, then I see this from the matrix top 10. Nicely done.
http://www.gadepool.com/bracketology.html
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

I was going to knock down that 4 seed which seems high at this point, then I see this from the matrix top 10. Nicely done.
http://www.gadepool.com/bracketology.html
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

A couple other top 10’ers, who updated yesterday or today, have them 4 and 5 respectively. This is my first year really taking a stab at it and there’s a balancing act between actual results and those NET rankings. I have the NET rankings as a really big component of what I do because I know how the selection committee works.

Iowa’s NET ranking plus, as of the Jan 20 update, 4 quad 1 and 4 quad 2 wins calculates to a 4 based on my completely made up, and probably wrong, formula. I thought about knocking teams, like Iowa, Virginia Tech, and Nebraska, down a seed if their NCOS was 200+. I left it alone for the time being but I may revisit that idea this week.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Out of curiosity, do you mind sharing your formula?

My rough stab took:
Q1 Wins × 4 + Q2 Wins × 2 + Q3 Wins - Q2 Losses - Q3 Losses × 2 - Q4 Losses × 3 + KenPom's Net EM.

I've avoided including NET rankings, since I don't have the actual values, just the ranks.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Out of curiosity, do you mind sharing your formula?

My rough stab took:
Q1 Wins × 4 + Q2 Wins × 2 + Q3 Wins - Q2 Losses - Q3 Losses × 2 - Q4 Losses × 3 + KenPom's Net EM.

I've avoided including NET rankings, since I don't have the actual values, just the ranks.

I’m slightly more slanted towards the Q1 wins and less so I’m Q3. Also, I adjusted it to match Q1/Q2 differences on the team sheets.

Q1 x 3.5
Q1 x 3

Q2 x 1.5
Q2 x 1.25

Q3 x .5

Q4 x .1

Losses were trickier to figure out, at least for me. I went with a very simple Loss x -5 using the NET rankings as the value for the loss.

So it’s the quad calculation + NET ranking calculation, really heavily weighted here, + margin of victory calculation + Kenpom efficiency calculation, +SOR calculation - losses.

Honestly, it’s trial by fire. I’ve made several adjustments since I put out my first bracket about a month ago. However, this feels like a finished product now, at least for this season.