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The US cattle herd is at it's lowest size since 1951

lucas80

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Jan 30, 2008
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Down 2 percent from last year, and 5 straight years of decline. The calf crop is at its lowest since 1948. Prices for beef will remain stable for now, but are expected to rise in the Fall. Feed usage is up for now, but expected to fall, affecting farmers who count on supplying cattle with feed.
Not linking, the Iowa Farm Bureau Spokesman doesn't make that easy. Their article does not give reasons as to why farmers are not holding herd size stable, or increasing herd size. I believe 6 months or so ago when the last US herd report was released prolonged drought was blamed as the principle reason for the declines.
 
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Live cattle prices are at all time highs. There’s 870 acres of pasture touching some of our family land. My brother thinks it will go for $3000+/acre.
 
American farmers are falling for that woke green agenda! Less cows means less cows farting and that’s good for the environment. Yeah farmers!!!
 
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At least in America, the majority of beef is eaten by the older generations. I would expect the largest producers and processors to continue to dwindle supply to keep the price up as long as possible. Every sector along the production chain is going to try to squeeze as much blood from the turnip as they can before their largest customer demographic stops buying.
 
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They project breakeven price points for corn and soybean farmers to be at 5$ and 12$ respectively.
Current cash prices are at 4.20 and 11.30 and sinking fast.
It is a boom and bust business...the 3 year boom is over..brace for the bust.
 
Florida is a major breeding state for cattle. The calves are shipped to the midwest to be fattened up for slaughter.

As always, blame Florida.
 
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They project breakeven price points for corn and soybean farmers to be at 5$ and 12$ respectively.
Current cash prices are at 4.20 and 11.30 and sinking fast.
It is a boom and bust business...the 3 year boom is over..brace for the bust.
Pics of busts?
 
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Live cattle prices are at all time highs. There’s 870 acres of pasture touching some of our family land. My brother thinks it will go for $3000+/acre.
This doesn't appear to be a cyclical decline, do you have thoughts on this trend?
 
This doesn't appear to be a cyclical decline, do you have thoughts on this trend?
I have no idea. Farmers have an old saying. High prices take care of high prices. Meaning when prices are high, farmers generally produce more, leading to increased supply and lower prices.
Beef cattle is a little different game though. Stocking rates are generally very stable on pasture and range; unlike crops which see natural variability due to environmental conditions. I would expect with high cattle prices and low corn prices we might see a slight uptick in production, but I honestly don’t know where that increase in production would come from.
 
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