Things Are Not Looking Good In The Housing Market

[tumorboy]

I'm at a 2.375 on a 30 year fixed because my BIL is a mortgage guy and I had him eat all his wiggle room and make no money on the deal in December of 2019. I bought him the treager he wanted for Xmas that year from my nephew using his Fleet Farm discount. Best 1300 bucks I've ever spent.

Did u blow him in the Farm & Fleet lot too. I would have considered it.

 

[TonyTheTiger.1865]

Great time to be a cash buyer.

Only if prices drop

 

[soybean]

The Fed can only use the one tool they have, and that's monetary policy. They can't control fiscal policy. Controlling interest rates is and can be only a partial fix. Some of the criteria cited by the Fed is dubious, like unemployment, which ignores the Labor Participation Rate.

Bottom line is the Fed would not have increased rates to the current level and at the same pace if deficit spending didn't explode in 2021.

2020 was the biggest defici in history at $3.1T 2021 was down to $2.7T and 2022 was back down to $1.4T

 

[GES4]

Don't want to claim my local situation is representative of the national market though by any means. Just an observation.

Perhaps the market is different in trailer parks?

 

[soybean]

I bought my first house with 20% down @ 11.75% in 1976. I sold it 8 years later for double what I paid for it. It more than held my spot in the inflation line so I could build a bigger home later. 8% is far from the end of the world...

Bought my first house in 1974 for $13,500 with a FHA loan at 8.125%. Sold it to a single woman on a no money down 7% 15 year contract in 1985 for $22,000...this house had sat empty for over two years before I finally got it sold. I thinl it was in 1990 that she married a guy from down in Oklahoma and he paid it off for her.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

2020 was the biggest defici in history at $3.1T 2021 was down to $2.7T and 2022 was back down to $1.4T

$2T for 2023

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/politics/federal-budget-deficit/index.html

 

[Viv_Savage]

View embedded media

This dude is a moron. Inflation isn't 0, it's just not going up as fast as it was previously.

Reckless spending by Congress is what is keeping inflation going. And before you get your pitch forks and torches out, both sides ran up the deficit.

 

[Scruddy]

Perhaps the market is different in trailer parks?

It could be, I wouldn't know. Have you spoken to your mother to get her take?

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

Did u blow him in the Farm & Fleet lot too. I would have considered it.

How bout Nooooooooo....... ya crazy Dutch bastard.

 

[Masterprime]

 

[tumorboy]

How bout Nooooooooo....... ya crazy Dutch bastard.

At least give him a quick reach around.

 

[anon_911569jwrmy3z]

2020 was the biggest defici in history at $3.1T 2021 was down to $2.7T and 2022 was back down to $1.4T

2023 back to $2 Trillion. This is with low unemployment and high economic growth.

 

[seminole97]

2020 was the biggest defici in history at $3.1T 2021 was down to $2.7T and 2022 was back down to $1.4T

Media will cite different sources that don't count different types of spending.
e.g. When discussing the 'surplus' in the Clinton years they'll not count debt financing costs, that required us to continue borrowing more every year of his presidency.

Simplest metric is to observe the nominal growth in outstanding debt.
It doesn't change. It is historical record.

Debt has grown $647,287,931,875.10 since the federal FY started.
The pace will vary, but that would be over $3.8 trillion annualized, so hopefully it slows significantly.

 

[seminole97]

And it normally does from an historical viewpoint. Right?

Prior to the Federal Reserve system prices in the U.S. were very stable outside of major wars.
It was the switch to full fiat in 1971 that really got the inflation going.
50 years later people think it's 'normal' for the value of the dollar to rapidly decline.

What historical period have we ever seen where the value of the dollar actually increases in relation to goods and services?

You see it constantly in tech, because the pace of innovation and productivity outpaces the rate of inflation.
More mature industries have a harder time eeking out productivity gains at the pace the money supply is inflated, so their prices rise.