Throwback Tuesday? - Revisiting summary of B1G teams invited to tournament

[AuroraHawk]

Another late lunch project.

Below is a copy and paste from a thread started 4/26/22 when Iowa was 8-4 in B1G play/23-12 overall and had a RPI of 57.

The previous post detailed history of B1G teams getting into the NCAA tournament since 2014. It obviously did not include last year's results:

2022 Big 10 - Top 6 teams - conference record - RPI - invite status
Maryland (18-5) (13) - at-large invite (host)
Rutgers (17-7) (43) - no invite
Iowa (17-7) (61) - no invite
Illinois (17-7) (76) - no invite
Michigan (12-12) (57) - automatic; conf tourney winner
Penn State (11-13) (148) - no invite
TOTAL - 2 teams; Rutgers gets hosed with 17-7 record and #43 RPI rating. Very nice conference records don't help Iowa or Illinois; likely hurt by B1G's overall conference RPI being so low. 5 teams with RPI less than 100. B1G ranked as 8th conference overall by RPI.

NOTABLE: Since 2014, with the exception of Michigan in 2016 (RPI #39), any B1G team finishing with a RPI of 40 RPI or better has received an at-large invitation. This goes directly to @BigOHawk 's point about Iowa needing to finish off its season with a RPI somewhere in the 30s or better. In fact, as shown below, the B1G has traditionally had its teams receive at-large bids when final RPIs in the 30s or 40s.

B1G teams with final RPIs in the 30s and 40s who played in NCAA tournament:
'14 - Nebraska (33); '15 - Maryland (42), Indiana (34); '16 - OSU (36) (AQ); '17 - Michigan (40), Maryland (44), Indiana (34); '18 - Purdue (40), Indiana (34), Ohio State (46); '19 - Indiana (35), Illinois (38), Nebraska (40); '21 - Nebraska (30) (AQ)

B1G teams with final RPIs in the 30s and 40s who did NOT play in NCAA tournament:
'16 - Michigan (39); '22 Rutgers (43)

Since 2014, 14 of 16 B1G teams that finished with RPIs in the 30s and 40s received a bid to play in the NCAA tournament.

Link: https://iowa.forums.rivals.com/threads/big-10-baseball-a-little-history.389695/#post-10140283

Took a late lunch at my desk and did some digging. Thought that some on here would like to view some historical data . . . expanding upon @KyleHuesmann 's tweet from last week.

2014 Big 10 - Top 6 teams - conference record - RPI - invite status
Indiana (21-3) (9) - automatic; conf tourney winner
Nebraska (18-6) (33) - at large
Illinois (17-7) (56) - no invite
Minnesota (13-11) (118) - no invite
Michigan (13-11) (108) - no invite
Michigan State (11-13) (100) - no invite
TOTAL - 2 teams; Illinois left hanging with 17-7 record and #56 RPI rating. Clearly not a stellar year in the Big 10. Indiana, Nebraska and Illinois were the only B1G teams with RPI ratings less than 100.

2015 Big 10 - Top 6 teams- conference record - RPI - invite status
Illinois (21-1) (13) - at large
Iowa (19-5) (29) - at large
Maryland (14-10) (42) - at large
Michigan (14-10) (61) - automatic; conf tourney winner
Michigan St. (14-10) (51) - no invite
Indiana (12-10) (34) - at large
TOTAL - 5 teams; Indiana likely got a bid because of its RPI. Top 3 received at large. All with RPI less than 50. We will never know if Michigan would have gotten in as an at large since it won the tournament. Given that MSU did not get in with same record and better RPI, it is fair to conclude that Michigan winning the B1G tournament was likely a good thing.

2016 Big 10 - Top 6 teams - conference record - RPI - invite status
Minnesota (16-7) (50) - at large
Nebraska (16-8) (53) - at large
Ohio State (15-9) (36) - automatic; conf tourney winner
Indiana (15-9) (104) - no invite
Michigan (13-10) (39) - no invite
Illinois (12-12) (55) - no invite
TOTAL - 3 teams; RPI and "name" didn't save Michigan this year. Nebraska's second place victory likely sealed its bid - even after going 0-2 in the B1G baseball tournament as a #2 seed. Given its RPI, OSU likely gets an invite but mooted the point with the close victory over Iowa in the B1G tournament championship game. Notable . . Indiana's 3rd place tie with OSU did not get them into the dance; likely hurt by its #104 RPI rating.

2017 Big 10 - Top 6 teams - conference record - RPI - invite status
Nebraska (16-7-1) (54) - at large
Michigan (16-8) (40) - at large
Minnesota (15-8) (72) - no invite
Maryland (15-9) (44) - at large
Iowa (15-9) (80) - automatic; conf tourney winner
Indiana (14-9-1) (34) - at large
TOTAL - 5 teams. Would Iowa have received an at large bid if it didn't win the tournament? The 3rd place Gophers would say "no" as they were on the outside looking in with a better record and a better RPI. Maryland, with its #44 RPI ranking, received an at-large despite finishing behind Minnesota in the B1G standings. Notably, Indiana also received an at-large bid even though it finished 1.5 games behind Minnesota; its #34 RPI likely tipped the balance in its favor over #72 RPI Minnesota.

2018 Big 10 - Top 7 teams - conference record - RPI - invite status
Minnesota (18-4) (12) - automatic; conf tourney winner
Purdue (17-6) (40) - at large
Michigan (15-8) (63) - no invite
Illinois (15-9) (50) - no invite
Indiana (14-9) (34) - at large
Iowa (13-9) (78) - no invite
Ohio State (14-10) (46) - at large
TOTAL - 4 teams. 1st, 2nd, 5th and 7th place finishers. 3rd place Michigan (#63 RPI), 4th place Illinois (#50 RPI) left out. 5th place Indiana (#34 RPI) invited. 7th place Ohio State (#46 RPI) invited. Certainly looks like RPI played a role here. #12, #40, #34 and #46 RPI teams get invites; #50, #63 and #78 left out of the NCAA tournament. Perhaps OSU making it to B1G tournament final four teams tipped the scale? Well . . 4th place Illinois also made final four teams in that tournament and was left hanging. Illinois also beat Indiana twice in the B1G tournament that year and won 1 of 3 games in Bloomington (lost one of the games in 10 innings) . . . and Indiana received an at large. Indiana was 38-17 overall; Illinois was 33-20 overall.

2019 Big 10 - Top 7 teams - conference record - RPI - invite status
Indiana (17-7) (35) - at large
Michigan (16-7) (19) - at large (finishes 2nd in CWS)
Illinois (15-9) (38) - at large
Nebraska (15-9) (40) - at large
Minnesota (15-9) (64) - no invite
Ohio State (12-12) (118) - automatic; conf tourney winner
Iowa (12-12) (106) - no invite
TOTAL - 5 teams. Clearly, OSU only qualified by winning the B1G tournament. Otherwise, the bids would have gone to the top 4 teams - all of whom had RPIs at #40 or better. Minnesota had the same B1G record as Nebraska but was 29-27 overall and had an RPI of #64.

2020 Big 10 - CANCELLED DUE TO COVID - IOWA GETS SHAFTED

2021 Big 10 - Top 6 teams - conference record - RPI - invite status
Nebraska (31-12) (30) - automatic; conf champ
Maryland (28-16) (56) - at large
Michigan (27-17) (94) - at large
Iowa (26-18) (76) - no invite
Indiana (26-18) (107) - no invite
Ohio State (22-20) (102) - no invite
TOTAL - 3 teams. Michigan benefits from its 2019 CWS runner-up status and a messed up COVID schedule which called accuracy of B1G's RPI ratings into question. Michigan's selection was not without a fair number of critics.

Is Iowa in the tournament if it finishes in the top 3 of the B1G? Here are the latest 3rd place finishes:
2014 - Illinois (17-7; 56) - no bid
2015 - Maryland (14-10; 42) - invite
2016 - Ohio State won tournament
2017 - Minnesota (15-8; 72) - no bid
2018 - Michigan (15-8; 63) - no bid
2019 - Illinois (15-9; 38) - invite
2021 - Michigan (27-27; 94) - invite

Currently Iowa sits at 23-12 overall (RPI = 57). If it can win its mid-week games and 9 of its final 12 B1G games, it will finish 17-7; 35-15.

At 17-7, Iowa would need the following teams to finish as follows to catch them:

Rutgers (currently 12-3); would have to go 5-4 against Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan
Illinois (currently 11-3); would have to go 5-4 against Indiana, Nebraska, Penn State
Maryland (currently 9-3); would have to go 8-4 against Northwestern, Rutgers, Michigan, Purdue
Michigan (currently 8-4); would have to go 9-3 against Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers

Going to be a fun weekend of games. No head-to-head match-ups. Real easy to figure out whom to root for.

 

[BigOHawk]

Nice analysis and write up, SIAP but what was Iowa's RPI in 2015 and 2017 when they got a regional bid? For some reason, I don't recall the 2017 regional as much as 2015, were we close to Supers in either of those years?

I know the 2016 Big Ten tournament was a doozy vs. OSU a nd Iowa fans were rocking that day, was pretty damn amazing hearing Let's Go Hawks flowing through the concourse that day, I thought we had OSU beat! Was it the B10 tournament the year before two when Iowa had a walkoff HR @Target field?

Also, does Kyle H still cover Iowa baseball or post here? Always had good info and intel as well!

 

[AuroraHawk]

Nice analysis and write up, SIAP but what was Iowa's RPI in 2015 and 2017 when they got a regional bid? For some reason, I don't recall the 2017 regional as much as 2015, were we close to Supers in either of those years?

If you click "expand," you'll see a breakdown of every year from 2014 to 2021 and it includes Iowa's RPI in 2015 (29) and 2017 (80 - AQ by winning tournament).

2015 was the painful year. Late season swoon cost Iowa the chance of hosting a Regional when it looked like it was eminently possible. Received a #2 seed. Beat Oregon in Game 1, Lost to #1 seed Missouri State, beat Oregon again and then lost in the Regional final to Missouri State (Iowa would have had to beat them twice to advance). If memory serves, Iowa endured an extra inning affair to beat Oregon the second time and lost a close one to Missouri State in the final game. I think that Iowa had the bases loaded in the 9th inning and couldn't push across the game tying run. I really thought that Iowa was going to the Super Regional that year.

The 2015 B1G tournament is what you were thinking of with the walk off HR. Iowa beat OSU that year and then lost its next two games (can't remember opponents). Disappointing results.

2017 was a fun run. Won the B1G tournament to get in. Received a #4 seed. Knocked off the top seed Houston in the first game of the regional but lost to Texas Tech or Texas A&M in game 2 and then lost again to Houston. All of the games were close.

I know the 2016 Big Ten tournament was a doozy vs. OSU a nd Iowa fans were rocking that day, was pretty damn amazing hearing Let's Go Hawks flowing through the concourse that day, I thought we had OSU beat!

The 2016 tournament was nuts. Iowa won its first 3 games, including one against OSU. Frustrating fact . . . to get to the final game, OSU had to win two games against MSU because MSU did not have any losses. However, OSU only had to beat Iowa once in the championship game to be B1G champs even though Iowa had not been previously beaten. Double elimination doesn't apply in final game. I understand the constraints for timing and scheduling but always felt that the structure is unduly punitive to a team that is 3-0 being eliminated with only one loss. The last two innings of that game were intense. Two out hysteria for Iowa in B8 and then two out heartbreak for Iowa in T9.

Also, does Kyle H still cover Iowa baseball or post here? Always had good info and intel as well!

Kyle H still covers Iowa baseball but doesn't post here.

 

[AuroraHawk]

Historically speaking, Iowa finished the regular season in a good spot for at-large consideration. Helps that the B1G is stronger this year than last.

Right now, worst case scenario is a loss to #113 Michigan and #87 Illinois in Omaha. Iowa (at #32) is 70 RPI points ahead of #40 UCSB. Two neutral site losses won’t be devastating and Iowa would likely be at/near #40 at the worst.

Losing two would make watching the selection show interesting but I’m thinking that Iowa would remain a strong candidate.

Of the #6-#8 seeds, Michigan is probably the team struggling the most. MSU won a big series and has a really good hotting team. Illinois had the chance to line up its pitching this weekend. Michigan swept by a not very good OSU.

I’m curious as to how Heller is going to handle the rotation. If I had to bet, I’m thinking that Morgan will go Game 1 (that’s hardly a stretch) but I’m thinking that he’ll start Brecht in Game 2 on Thursday if Iowa wins and Iowa is playing IU. If the opponent is Illinois on Thursday, I could see him running Langenberg out there and saving Brecht for a Saturday match-up. If the opponent is Illinois and the game is Wednesday, I think he’ll start Langenberg as well.

If (knock on wood) Iowa is a Regional team (assuming a 3 seed), I think that that Morgan throws Game 1 and Brecht throws Game 2.

 

[chonk]

Historically speaking, Iowa finished the regular season in a good spot for at-large consideration. Helps that the B1G is stronger this year than last.

Right now, worst case scenario is a loss to #113 Michigan and #87 Illinois in Omaha. Iowa (at #32) is 70 RPI points ahead of #40 UCSB. Two neutral site losses won’t be devastating and Iowa would likely be at/near #40 at the worst.

Losing two would make watching the selection show interesting but I’m thinking that Iowa would remain a strong candidate.

Of the #6-#8 seeds, Michigan is probably the team struggling the most. MSU won a big series and has a really good hotting team. Illinois had the chance to line up its pitching this weekend. Michigan swept by a not very good OSU.

I’m curious as to how Heller is going to handle the rotation. If I had to bet, I’m thinking that Morgan will go Game 1 (that’s hardly a stretch) but I’m thinking that he’ll start Brecht in Game 2 on Thursday if Iowa wins and Iowa is playing IU. If the opponent is Illinois on Thursday, I could see him running Langenberg out there and saving Brecht for a Saturday match-up. If the opponent is Illinois and the game is Wednesday, I think he’ll start Langenberg as well.

If (knock on wood) Iowa is a Regional team (assuming a 3 seed), I think that that Morgan throws Game 1 and Brecht throws Game 2.

Agree totally those two will be 1 & 2 in the regional.

 

[hawkfan0319]

I was watching the IU/MSU game on Saturday, and the announcers were saying how well IU is hitting against hard throwers (like Brecht). Do you throw Langenberg against IU?

 

[chonk]

I was watching the IU/MSU game on Saturday, and the announcers were saying how well IU is hitting against hard throwers (like Brecht). Do you throw Langenberg against IU?

Brody beat them 7-1, 7 innings, 2 hits.

That being said if we beat Michigan I’m not sure if they push him up to Thursday. He could go this Friday or Saturday & be on time for Game 2, Saturday, in the regional which is much more important.