http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/24/p...s-of-president-trump-range-between-97-and-99/
Did anyone post this when it came out? I might have missed it.
Did anyone post this when it came out? I might have missed it.
Trump has 97% chance of beating hillary?
- Thread starter Metuo Accipiter
- Start date
I'm not. In order to believe one guy's random opinion over the data from multiple other sources that say something completely different, you have to reject science.
He's been pretty accurate since he's correctly predicted the results of every election except for one in the last 104 years.
Are you comparing polls to this? If not, what specifically are you claiming is disproving this.political scientists work?
I have no idea if he will be correct or not but remember, most of his results involve back testing. This model was first used for forward predictions in 1996.
He must be really old ...
True, maybe I shouldn't question the judgement of somebody who must be pushing 120 years old.
It's not really hard to make a model "predict" the outcome of an election you already know the results to.
When Nate Silver and RCP start saying something like this, then I'll give it some credibility. Until then, I wouldn't take stock advice from this guy.
The Iowa Electronics Futures Market has the it about 66/34 Dems.
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres16_quotes.html
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres16_quotes.html
But, what about Trump's being investigated by the FBI, his Family Foundation Scandal, taking million$ from Saudi Arabia, etc and botching Benghazi, then lying to the families of the fallen?
Oh wait, I guess that's all on Rodham's side of the equation, isn't it?
Oh wait, I guess that's all on Rodham's side of the equation, isn't it?
Unfortunately, we learned in the Iowa caucuses that Hillary having a 2% chance of winning consecutive coin flips was no sweat, so he's gonna have to do a lot better than 97%.
Seriously, this professor is wacky.
Seriously, this professor is wacky.
I thought we were taught not to question science on HROT? And then we learn BioHawk is a luddite. Now everything is in disarray. Cats and dogs sleeping toether. You know the rest. I knew I should have stuck with the coffee bean caucus as my political science of choice
Well, this isn't so much a case of statistics being manipulated, as somebody making a reasonable hypothesis that has not yet had enough test cases to validate. I'm sure there are dozens of ways to fit some kind of statistic to match most of the last 20 to 25 elections. But without a causation to match the correlation, there is not a real good reason to think it can be used to predict future elections.
The last time I checked the polls, most of them had Trump beating Hillary. But that would be popular vote.
Well one political science professor said it, so it must be true. Guess I'll just skip voting now.
A pretty clear example of how people like LC live within an alternate reality created by rightwing web sites. It's actually really sad.
Remember that U of Colorado model that had "predicted" all elections since 1980 and said Romney was going to win?
link
The model also suggests that Romney will win every state currently considered a swing state which includes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.
Got 1 out of 9 there. Not bad.
Political science isn't a hard science.
link
The model also suggests that Romney will win every state currently considered a swing state which includes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.
Got 1 out of 9 there. Not bad.
Political science isn't a hard science.
OK, now the last time I checked, most polls had Clinton beating Trump.
Actually, what I did was misremember a previous discussion. The polls to which I referred showed Cruz beating Hillary.
My bad.
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Read Pat Buchanan regarding Trump and why he is doing so well. People are mad at the fact that the establishment has been pushing free trade, which is great for the corporations of America, but terrible for the average man on the street. Not just mad, angry as hell. People understand that he is flawed, however they do not see another viable option.
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