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Trump leads Biden in 4 key swing states, new polling finds.

RicoSuave102954

HB Heisman
Jul 17, 2023
8,788
6,892
113
Montezuma, Iowa
Former President Donald Trump holds an edge over President Joe Biden in a series of hypothetical matchups among registered voters in four key swing states, new polling from The New York Times and Siena College shows.

In Nevada, a state Biden narrowly carried in the 2020 presidential election, Trump boasts 52% support to Biden’s 41%. Trump also tops Biden in Georgia, a state that was central to his ploy to overturn the last presidential election, with 49% to Biden’s 43%.

Trump leads Biden in Arizona, too, with 49% to the president’s 44%. In Michigan, Trump holds a 5-point lead as well: 48% to Biden’s 43%.

Each poll has a margin of sampling error between 4.4 and 4.8 points, and the head-to-head matchup remains theoretical — primary voting does not begin until next year. Trump overwhelmingly remains the Republican front-runner, while Biden, who drew a primary challenge from Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips last month, is heavily favored for the Democratic nomination.

The latest battleground state polling underscores the considerable challenges facing Biden’s reelection bid, including low job approval ratings and questions about his age and ability to steer the country. The poll results are especially striking for Biden given Trump’s mounting legal troubles.

Biden campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz downplayed the polling in a statement Sunday, telling CNN: “Predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later.”

In Pennsylvania, a state Trump won in 2016 but Biden recaptured in 2020, Trump is at 48% to Biden’s 44%.

One Pennsylvania voter the Times spoke with, who supported Biden in 2020 but now backs Trump, told the outlet: “The world is falling apart under Biden.”

“I would much rather see somebody that I feel can be a positive role-model leader for the country. But at least I think Trump has his wits about him,” Spencer Weiss said.

In Wisconsin, meanwhile, Biden takes 47% to Trump’s 45%, well within the survey’s margin of error.

With roughly a year until the general election, these polls, which were conducted by telephone from October 22 to November 3, capture only one snapshot of the electorate as it currently stands. But they show a broad sense of discontent.

Across these six battleground states, registered voters give Biden low job approval marks (38% approve), with just 19% describing the economy as excellent or good.

Registered voters in these six states give Trump the edge in trust over Biden to handle the economy, immigration, national security and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trust Biden more on abortion, with a close split on handling democracy.

As CNN previously reported, Biden is just as low in the White House’s internal polls as in any of the public ones, but his advisers remain confident that he is the Democrats’ best option in 2024.

 
Joe Biden Falling GIF by GIPHY News
 
Anyone know how the question was worded in the NYT poll? It's behind a paywall...

I always find how they word the question interesting in these polls...can tweak it to get a desired result.
 
Anyone know how the question was worded in the NYT poll? It's behind a paywall...

I always find how they word the question interesting in these polls...can tweak it to get a desired result.
Nuance is a 4 letter word in today’s “news reporting”

I can’t see him winning. Trump isn’t gaining voters.

I will say turnout will be an all timer

Some analysts say RFK running hurts Trump more than Biden.
 
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Nuance is a 4 letter word in today’s “news reporting”

I can’t see him winning. Trump isn’t gaining voters.

I will say turnout will be an all timer

Some analysts say RFK running hurts Trump more than Biden.
Only CNN shills say that RFK running hurts Trump, a Kennedy is a Kennedy and he will garner votes only from the Democrat side period end of story.
 
Anyone know how the question was worded in the NYT poll? It's behind a paywall...

I always find how they word the question interesting in these polls...can tweak it to get a desired result.
AZGAMINVPAWIMENWOMEN18-2930-4445-6465+WHITEBLACKHISPANICOTH.B.A.+NO B.A.WHITE, COLLEGEWHITE, NO COLLEGENON-WHITE, COLLEGENON-WHITE, NO COLLEGECITYSUBURBRURALUNDER $50K$50-100KOVER $100KBIDENTRUMPOTH.DEM.REP.IND.DEM.REP.BIDENTRUMPDID NOT VOTE
REGISTERED VOTERSSTATEGENDERAGERACE/ETHNICITYEDUCATIONRACE/EDUCATIONCITY TYPEINCOME2024 VOTE CHOICEPARTY I.D.PARTY I.D. + LEANERS2020 VOTE
(Includes leaners) Thinking about the upcoming presidential election in 2024, if the election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican?

FOLLOW UP: Are you definitely or probably voting for them?

[IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today...]
Joe Biden44%44%43%43%41%44%47%37%50%47%43%42%46%39%71%50%39%52%39%51%32%58%54%53%48%32%46%46%43%100%0%0%88%5%44%88%6%88%2%35%
Donald Trump48%49%49%48%52%48%45%55%42%46%47%52%46%54%22%42%51%38%54%40%62%32%38%38%45%60%46%48%49%0%100%0%7%91%45%7%88%6%94%50%
[VOL] Another candidate2%2%3%2%<1%2%3%2%2%2%3%2%2%2%2%<1%3%3%2%3%2%2%1%2%2%2%2%2%2%0%0%27%<1%1%4%1%2%1%1%3%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices3%2%2%4%4%3%2%3%3%2%4%3%2%3%3%2%4%3%3%3%3%4%3%4%3%2%2%2%3%0%0%37%2%1%4%2%2%2%<1%8%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused3%3%3%3%2%3%3%3%3%3%3%1%3%2%3%5%2%3%2%3%2%4%4%3%3%3%3%2%3%0%0%36%2%1%3%2%2%2%1%4%
Number of respondents3,6626036296166116006031,7911,8276468681,2347932,4874034632251,6052,0361,1581,3204006859371,4931,2328741,1601,3771,6061,7592971,0751,1181,1641,6341,7701,5261,387556
Percent of total electorate100%17%17%17%17%17%17%48%51%17%23%31%26%68%11%13%6%35%64%25%42%9%21%25%41%33%27%31%34%44%48%8%30%32%30%45%49%41%38%16%
 
Only CNN shills say that RFK running hurts Trump, a Kennedy is a Kennedy and he will garner votes only from the Democrat side period end of story.
He has the anti Vax crowd. His vaccination views are not 100% No, he actually has some food for thought but I realize nobody is going to listen to a 3 hour podcast to hear him out.
 
I've asked this before but can't seem to find an answer... they say it was conducted by phone... do they make sure they are getting a wide demographic of the population? Or is it just whoever answers? I can see this being a bunch of old farts who actually answer their phone and not getting anything from younger people who don't answer their phones if they don't know who it is. I'm sure they do what they can to avoid this? But I've never gotten an explanation to this question.
 
Idiocracy being a documentary becomes more and more real with each passing day.
 
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