Trump Leads Harris 64-29 on Polymarket Betting Site
- Thread starter BustingNarratives
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Trump has a hard ceiling. The hardest of ceilings...
Joe Biden in his diminished capacity had a shot at beating him. Kamala can beat him if she's focused and stays on message.
Joe Biden in his diminished capacity had a shot at beating him. Kamala can beat him if she's focused and stays on message.
I mean I think people are fooling themselves if they think she’s the favorite. But it certainly gives the Dems a shot in the arm.
Trump was up on Biden like 78-22 earlier this week.
Trump was up on Biden like 78-22 earlier this week.
It'll take some pretty major stumbles for Trump to have a chance. The Prosecutor vs The Criminal is a potent slogan. Trump is almost assured of losing the women voting bloc as well as young people. It will be disgusting but Trump's only shot will be to lean as heavily as possible into racism and misogyny.
Or put out ads with Kamala's word salads and defense of Joe's cognitive abilities.
There is not a candidate in the world against whom Trump would get 60% of the vote.
Problem is that Trump's word salad is worse. Way worse. And Joe is a hero now. Donny trying to make the election about him and not her is pretty weak.
This, and I don't even know how much she has to stay on message.
I think any Dem but Joe, including Kamala can get back the small margin of moderates who was going to switch from Biden to Trump (even they weren't sure about switching).
There is always a chance but Kamala’s #1 job as VP was to solve the border crisis. She failed miserably. She has little focus and her word salad responses are the farthest thing from staying on message. I think these Polymarket odds are probably as accurate as any to the real world chances of either candidate winning.
Joe would have been a hero if he had done this prior to the primaries.
The only reason he's doing it now is he inexplicably agreed to a debate in June. If he had gone with the traditional debate dates he'd still be the candidate and the D's would have been F'd in October.
Thanks Joe?
Actually her part of the immigration issue was to work on the root causes of this migratory behavior of citizens of central and South America. This work with Mexico and other countries I s bearing fruit now as the #s of border crosses on the southern border are at a 4 yr low.
Whoever on his team that convinced them a June debate was the way to go did the nation and the D's a favor.
If the debate happened in October it would have been a complete catastrophe.
It is one of several sites that allows you to place bets on political races and other worldwide events. Really not much different than betting on sports. It is probably as unbiased as you can get vs. regular political polling. Check out their website in the original link for more details.
How could that be, it doesn't even appear to be a domestic organization?
Seems reactionary. From the link....
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market. Put your money where your mouth is on politics, sports, crypto, culture & more.
This.
Abortion. Abortion. Abortion.
She starts yammering about anything else, she’s gonna make it really hard on herself.
Exactly. That makes it even more unbiased. No different than if you bet on a sports team you have no allegiance to. If you think their odds on Kamala are too low put some money on her.
Kamala does make a mean word salad, but she’ll never unseat the word salad champion.
Again, Trump seems to get a pass for his incoherent jabbering.
It’s far too early to call her the favorite, but it’s also an entirely new race. Trumps primary weapon against Biden was his age…that’s gone now.
This remains a misleading narrative, albeit the major blot on her resume.
VP in any administration has the least amount of power in the US government, so her mistakes aside, what exactly was she going to do? Mind you, I still don’t get why she took forever to go to the border and at least get photo ops.
And not to mention, bins - haven’t millions of Americans who’ve voted for Trump multiple times (the goldmoms, trads etc.) defended a senile buffoon’s cognitive abilities?
If Harris can stay disciplined, that leaves the door open for Trump to start getting noticed for that again. He’s gotten a pass because Biden couldn’t shake the too old label…he got outmaneuvered there.
The Iowa electronic market has seen massive swings, on the night of the 2000 election, it was almost 90% gore, I could see the maps, now I know it is an exclusive market rather small, but I made a couple hundred dollars that night picking up some cheap Bush shares. The Betting markets give you an idea of the current set up, what they don't show is the momentum and it is very tough to get a read on the full electorate any more as most are unwilling to take polls. I still think close to 55% of America would never vote for Trump. Now in the swing states it is tighter, however, if you put up a solid candidate you will win.
The both sides brigade here are not disappointing. All we've heard for 3 and a half years is for the Dems to give us anyone besides Biden because he's too old. And already they have all kinds of complaints with Kamala (who isn't even the nominee yet). Yep they totally aren't trump dick suckers 🙄
Not sure you could claim that. Betting markets are biased by the views of only people who like to gamble and given that it's a bet on who's going to win the presidency, I would say that these are people who like to gamble a lot. I don't know if there is a link there between political affiliation or anything like that but it's a pretty select group.
It would be neat to see Cap’n ¡BoTh sIdEs! FAU just one time start a thread, unprompted, about Trump’s failings, be it moral, business, command of the English language, as a parent… ANYTHING. Of course being a Trump dick sucker, he (and the rest of em) doesn’t have it in him.
I think there were/are very few who would have switched from Biden to Trump; the number is far bigger when you look at those who were going from Biden to not voting. To have any chance, Harris has to pull those people back into the election.
There were still undecideds who couldn't figure out which old man scared them the least. Maybe she has a chance of winning them over.
Don’t talk about Trump failing as a parent. When you put your children in daycare so you can post Marxist propaganda on the internet all day.
No, thank you. I also have no idea how you can think offshore betting odds are "unbiased" or are in any way an accurate predictor, especially when there are presumably non-american entities informing the betting line.
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