ADVERTISEMENT

Tuesdays With Torbee: Is Wisconsin a "must-win?"

torbee

HR King
Gold Member

Tuesdays with Torbee​

by:Tory Brecht•about 1 hour•
https://twitter.com/ToryBrecht
Deacon Hill
Photo by Jeffrey Becker, USA TODAY Sports.


Iowa’s upcoming game against the Wisconsin Badgers inside a hostile Camp Randall isn’t a “must-win” by any conventional metric. It may, however, fit in that category in terms of fan goodwill.
Despite its 5-1 record and two-game winning streak engineered by flawed-but-game backup quarterback Deacon Hill, a large contingent of the black and gold fan base remains agitated, irritable and dissatisfied.

The old cliché states winning cures all ills, but in Iowa City at least, winning ugly doesn’t.

Although Iowa never really looked as if it might lose to Purdue last week, a late offensive stall out, some questionable play calling on third-and-short and a quick strike touchdown from the Boilermakers made the 20-14 victory feel more precarious than it needed to be.

It didn’t help that Hill, in his first start, was erratic and uncomfortable most of the day. It also didn’t help that wide receivers caught a total of zero balls (although they were targeted seven times, or on one-third of Hill’s attempts.) The offense, statistically, was better and the running game was – dare we say it – a legitimate weapon. But enough warts remain to keep Iowa fans cagey and skeptical.
I believe the only way to truly get fans back on board is for the Hawkeyes to find a way to win against the last remaining good team on its schedule this weekend. Win in Madison – ugly or not – control your Big 10 Championship Game destiny and the bandwagon will start filling up again.

It’s a tall, but not impossible task.

Iowa has won two out of its last three games against the Badgers, including last year’s relatively comfortable 24-10 victory inside Kinnick Stadium.
Over those three games, the Badgers have averaged just over 14 points a game. Iowa, by contrast, has averaged just under 13 points in those three tilts.

The path to victory, as it has been over the past several offensively challenged seasons, is to claw out an early lead, then use a suffocating defense and killer special teams to secure the win. Iowa could not achieve this against an uber-talented Penn State team, but I believe Wisconsin talent-wise is much closer to the Hawkeyes.
Lost in the hand wringing over Deacon Hill’s bad day and a handful of missed scoring attempts against Purdue is that Iowa shored up a couple prior weaknesses.

A defensive line that couldn’t generate sacks across its first five games pummeled the Boilermakers’ quarterback six times. The running game got on track with 181 yards highlighted by Kaleb Johnson’s impressive 8.6 yards per carry – and that was into a stacked box because of the passing game woes.

Wisconsin’s defense will present a much bigger challenge than Purdue’s, but if Iowa can get production on the ground, it can find a way to put up points. What must change is Iowa’s third-down production. The Hawkeyes were a woeful 3 of 13 on third down last Saturday. If the Hawkeyes don’t find a way to convert a few more against Bucky, a win will be very difficult to achieve.

Iowa’s last road game in Happy Valley was an unmitigated disaster and did much to set the sour tone that is lingering in the fan base, despite wins piling up. It doesn’t help that both the Michigan State and Purdue games were uncomfortable, white-knuckle affairs at times.

Unfortunately, nearly every Iowa-Wisconsin game plays out as an uncomfortable, white-knuckle affair and there is no reason to believe that won’t once again be the case this Saturday in Madison.
What will be tested is this Iowa team’s resiliency. Thus far, outside of one rainy night in Pennsylvania, this patchwork team has shown the heart and grit to grind out ugly wins.
Do that again this coming Saturday and the heat on the coaching staff will be significantly turned down. If the Hawkeyes flail and fail on offense and drop this game in ugly fashion, the heat will be turned way, way up.

Saturday against Wisconsin may not be a must-win. However, it needs to be competitive and somehow show that Iowa’s relatively gaudy record isn’t fraudulent. The opportunity exists for the Hawkeyes to shift the negative narrative. Here’s hoping they find that path on the road.
 
What is the context of "must win"?

If the goal is to win the B1G West, the answer is probably yes. Wisconsin should be favored in all remaining B1G games except THE OSU. If they beat Iowa, Wisconsin can still lose 2 B1G games and win the B1G West. If Iowa wins, Iowa is then in the drivers seat because it's probably going to come down to Iowa and Wisconsin for the West.

If the goal is to win 10 games and go to a nice bowl game, it's not "must win".
 
  • Like
Reactions: torbee and BioHawk
I realize Wisconsin has a new head coach and I haven't watched much of them this year. But if I'm thinking about recent Wisconsin teams, this is a game we go and put like 6 points (maybe 13 with a defensive TD) and look totally inept on offense. That said, I don't know if their defense is as good as it has been in the past.

Largely agree with the observations in the column though.
 
No matter the outcome Saturday afternoon, I seriously doubt I will be changing my opinion that KF needs to retire so that Iowa's offensive philosophy and scheme can move forward from the dark ages.


And if were forced to bet on how Iowa wins - if they do - it will be because of some combination of the D & STs being stout most of the game and giving the offense ridiculously great starting field position multiple times (meaning lots of FGs) and/or those units exchanging Wisconsin turnovers & miscues into immediate points, IE Pick6(s) and ST return/blocked punts/fumbles by UW-turned-into TD(s).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Greenway4Prez
I realize Wisconsin has a new head coach and I haven't watched much of them this year. But if I'm thinking about recent Wisconsin teams, this is a game we go and put like 6 points (maybe 13 with a defensive TD) and look totally inept on offense. That said, I don't know if their defense is as good as it has been in the past.

Largely agree with the observations in the column though.
Their defense definitely isn't what it has been. Purdue ran it well on them.

Good run game. QB and pass game are ok.

I feel like we have a good shot at limiting them to 21 or so... which means the offense has to do a little something. I'm hopeful we can run on them... pass game just needs a little more juice. Say, 175 plus yards.

Naturally turnovers and special teams could do it for us, but hard to count on that. (Well, sorta)
 
Their defense definitely isn't what it has been. Purdue ran it well on them.

Good run game. QB and pass game are ok.

I feel like we have a good shot at limiting them to 21 or so... which means the offense has to do a little something. I'm hopeful we can run on them... pass game just needs a little more juice. Say, 175 plus yards.

Naturally turnovers and special teams could do it for us, but hard to count on that. (Well, sorta)
Definitely a "first team to 20 wins" kind of vibe. I wouldn't be shocked if neither team reaches 20, TBH.

Kind of feeling a 17-13 game.
 
Kinda like 2015...the whole rest of the season opens up after the Wisconsin game. You can see the clear path there with a win.

If Iowa wants to win the west (given both programs' remaining schedules), yes - a must win.
 
Kinda like 2015...the whole rest of the season opens up after the Wisconsin game. You can see the clear path there with a win.

If Iowa wants to win the west (given both programs' remaining schedules), yes - a must win.

Yeah, Iowa will likely be favored or at worst a narrow underdog (maybe Nebraska?) but we should have a good chance to win out after Saturday. Wisconsin has Ohio state with MAYBE Minnesota lurking in that rivalry game.
 
3rd & 11 - incomplete pass
3rd & 5 - incomplete pass
3rd & goal - rushed for 9 yds from the 18
3rd & 8 - incomplete pass
3rd & 6 - passed for 4 yds
3rd & 10 - passed for 11 yds (CONVERTED!!!)
3rd & goal - incomplete pass from the 5
3rd & 4 - incomplete pass
3rd & 9 - rushed for 15 yds (CONVERTED!!!)
3rd & 2 - passed for 22 yd (TOUCHDOWN!!!)
3rd & 13 - rushed for 4 yds
3rd & 7 - rushed for 3 yds
3rd & 1 - rushed for 2 yd loss

Are you not entertained?!?!?!
 
I wonder what it would be like to be a fan of an East team that has a shot at the Big Ten Championship game this year. The the playoffs are in reach, but first you have to get by a down Wisconsin, Iowa, or a surging Nebraska or Minnesota. It must be stressful.
 
Hill was off but there were a few drops in there that couldn't have helped the kids confidence.

The receivers just have to step up in that regard.

Many of his attempts fell into that category of him trying to “throw” instead “passing”; trying to make everything perfect instead of good enough.

Would have liked some easy passes to try and help calm him down.
 
Many of his attempts fell into that category of him trying to “throw” instead “passing”; trying to make everything perfect instead of good enough.

Would have liked some easy passes to try and help calm him down.
He had that nice little easy pass to Kaleb for 13 yds before KJ took it to the house on the next play. Thought that was a good way to get him going but was wrong.....had 6 straight incompletions after that.

You could see him pressing...probably needed a few "easy" completions to get settled down like you said. He did have some horrible misses though...All wide open over the middle was a horrible overthrow.

Seems like our WR's just don't ever...or rarely...bail the QB out the last few years. Balls batted for its...drops...

Seems our QB's have to put it on the money and they press...which adds to the inaccuracy.

Frustrating to watch.
 
The winner of this game will likely win the West Division, so it’s a “must win” in that respect.
zero faith that anything about this squad is "likely"... Iowa could blow out Wiscy and turn around and manage only a FG against Minne.... In fact, I think that is mostly likely to happen... expect squeakers from here on out.
 
He had that nice little easy pass to Kaleb for 13 yds before KJ took it to the house on the next play. Thought that was a good way to get him going but was wrong.....had 6 straight incompletions after that.

You could see him pressing...probably needed a few "easy" completions to get settled down like you said. He did have some horrible misses though...All wide open over the middle was a horrible overthrow.

Seems like our WR's just don't ever...or rarely...bail the QB out the last few years. Balls batted for its...drops...

Seems our QB's have to put it on the money and they press...which adds to the inaccuracy.

Frustrating to watch.

Yeah, it has kinda turned into a vicious cycle hasnt it.

I am hoping that Hill vs Sparty in relief is more of an indicator of his accuracy vs last week…his passes two weeks ago were largely on-target when he just went in and didn’t have time to think.
 
I wonder what it would be like to be a fan of an East team that has a shot at the Big Ten Championship game this year. The the playoffs are in reach, but first you have to get by a down Wisconsin, Iowa, or a surging Nebraska or Minnesota. It must be stressful.
the big ten title game is like a bye week for the B1G east team
 
Last edited:
So the Wisky run game does worry me. It's the best we'll have faced this year. We'll be on the road. Thankfully our front 7 seems to be ascending... and we do have a history of stoning run games pretty well. We're not doing at the rate we usually this season, however.
 
Not now Torbee, no time for sports. Can’t you see we are busy world war-ing?

Oh also, **** Wisconsin.
 
The glass is half full.

1. With the return of Kaleb Johnson, 186 yards rushing. Run blocking has improved.

2. Hill is throwing the ball down field, and completed a couple on Saturday. He will be motivated for this game. He will show some touch on his throws, tamping them back to sub sonic velocity.

3. Six sacks on Saturday! This was the only legit criticism of the Iowa defense going into the game.

4. 5-1 baby!

Hawks 24-10 with defense/special teams accounting for seven points.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: torbee
While it would be nice to win the west, I believe best case scenario for Iowa would be to go 10-2 a not win the West, Just sayin…
 
4 of 5 on Gameday just picked Wisky vs Iowa. C’mon Hawks! Couple of safeties, a blocked kick or three, and several int. run backs should do it.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT