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Tuesdays With Torbee: Is Wisconsin a "must-win?"

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by:Tory Brecht•about 1 hour•
https://twitter.com/ToryBrecht

Deacon Hill
Photo by Jeffrey Becker, USA TODAY Sports.

Iowa’s upcoming game against the Wisconsin Badgers inside a hostile Camp Randall isn’t a “must-win” by any conventional metric. It may, however, fit in that category in terms of fan goodwill.

Despite its 5-1 record and two-game winning streak engineered by flawed-but-game backup quarterback Deacon Hill, a large contingent of the black and gold fan base remains agitated, irritable and dissatisfied.

The old cliché states winning cures all ills, but in Iowa City at least, winning ugly doesn’t.

Although Iowa never really looked as if it might lose to Purdue last week, a late offensive stall out, some questionable play calling on third-and-short and a quick strike touchdown from the Boilermakers made the 20-14 victory feel more precarious than it needed to be.

It didn’t help that Hill, in his first start, was erratic and uncomfortable most of the day. It also didn’t help that wide receivers caught a total of zero balls (although they were targeted seven times, or on one-third of Hill’s attempts.) The offense, statistically, was better and the running game was – dare we say it – a legitimate weapon. But enough warts remain to keep Iowa fans cagey and skeptical.
I believe the only way to truly get fans back on board is for the Hawkeyes to find a way to win against the last remaining good team on its schedule this weekend. Win in Madison – ugly or not – control your Big 10 Championship Game destiny and the bandwagon will start filling up again.

It’s a tall, but not impossible task.

Iowa has won two out of its last three games against the Badgers, including last year’s relatively comfortable 24-10 victory inside Kinnick Stadium.
Over those three games, the Badgers have averaged just over 14 points a game. Iowa, by contrast, has averaged just under 13 points in those three tilts.

The path to victory, as it has been over the past several offensively challenged seasons, is to claw out an early lead, then use a suffocating defense and killer special teams to secure the win. Iowa could not achieve this against an uber-talented Penn State team, but I believe Wisconsin talent-wise is much closer to the Hawkeyes.

Lost in the hand wringing over Deacon Hill’s bad day and a handful of missed scoring attempts against Purdue is that Iowa shored up a couple prior weaknesses.

A defensive line that couldn’t generate sacks across its first five games pummeled the Boilermakers’ quarterback six times. The running game got on track with 181 yards highlighted by Kaleb Johnson’s impressive 8.6 yards per carry – and that was into a stacked box because of the passing game woes.

Wisconsin’s defense will present a much bigger challenge than Purdue’s, but if Iowa can get production on the ground, it can find a way to put up points. What must change is Iowa’s third-down production. The Hawkeyes were a woeful 3 of 13 on third down last Saturday. If the Hawkeyes don’t find a way to convert a few more against Bucky, a win will be very difficult to achieve.
Iowa’s last road game in Happy Valley was an unmitigated disaster and did much to set the sour tone that is lingering in the fan base, despite wins piling up. It doesn’t help that both the Michigan State and Purdue games were uncomfortable, white-knuckle affairs at times.

Unfortunately, nearly every Iowa-Wisconsin game plays out as an uncomfortable, white-knuckle affair and there is no reason to believe that won’t once again be the case this Saturday in Madison.
What will be tested is this Iowa team’s resiliency. Thus far, outside of one rainy night in Pennsylvania, this patchwork team has shown the heart and grit to grind out ugly wins.

Do that again this coming Saturday and the heat on the coaching staff will be significantly turned down. If the Hawkeyes flail and fail on offense and drop this game in ugly fashion, the heat will be turned way, way up.

Saturday against Wisconsin may not be a must-win. However, it needs to be competitive and somehow show that Iowa’s relatively gaudy record isn’t fraudulent. The opportunity exists for the Hawkeyes to shift the negative narrative. Here’s hoping they find that path on the road.

Follow me on Twitter @ToryBrecht and the 12 Saturdays Podcast @12Saturdays.
 
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One has to evaluate what the criteria for a must-win is:

Is it a must-win for:

Winning the National Championship?: Yes
B1G Championship?: Yes
B1G West? Yes
Rose Bowl? Yes
NY6 Bowl? Yes
Bowl eligibility? No
KF to keep his job? No
BF to keep his job? No
Life and death for anyone? No
Fan support of this team? No, only because this win will not change the critics mind nor will a loss make the supporters abandon this team.
 
One has to evaluate what the criteria for a must-win is:

Is it a must-win for:

Winning the National Championship?: Yes
B1G Championship?: Yes
B1G West? Yes
Rose Bowl? Yes
NY6 Bowl? Yes
Bowl eligibility? No
KF to keep his job? No
BF to keep his job? No
Life and death for anyone? No
Fan support of this team? No, only because this win will not change the critics mind nor will a loss make the supporters abandon this team.
Indeed. “Must win” is an overused term.
 
One has to evaluate what the criteria for a must-win is:

Is it a must-win for:

Winning the National Championship?: Yes
B1G Championship?: Yes
B1G West? Yes
Rose Bowl? Yes
NY6 Bowl? Yes
Bowl eligibility? No
KF to keep his job? No
BF to keep his job? No
Life and death for anyone? No
Fan support of this team? No, only because this win will not change the critics mind nor will a loss make the supporters abandon this team.
It isn't must win for the BIG Champ or West. It does put Iowa in a HUGE hole to achieve those 2 goals. Wisky would have to lose 3 games after Iowa while Iowa wins out.
 
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Wisky is a bit of a benchmark for Iowa, and really for the B1G West. It is an oddity that the past 2 seasons the B1G West champ lost to Wisky, because every other season of its existence the B1G West Champ was either Wisky or a team that beat them, as will be the case this season.

Wisky is coming off of its first losing B1G season since 2008 and had a total coaching overhaul this past offseason - and they are 10-point favorites over Iowa on Saturday as an unranked team, and Iowa is probably their only competition for the division. That is a testimonial to how lousy the B1G West is, and IMO a red flag on Iowa's program, which has rock-solid stability at the top but controversial coaching hires and retainees on the offensive side of the ball, not to mention major misses in recruiting, very poor player development, & questionably outdated and ineffective offensive philosophy, have resulted in underperforming for 3-4 seasons now despite elite defense and special teams.

This game has the feeling of huge implications. Losses to Wisky in 1997 and 2010 seemed to send the program into a tailspin. I have a feeling that a beatdown on Saturday is something that Iowa wouldn't recover from for a long, long time. OTOH, a win could mean that, despite the problems, Iowa could be headed for a special season, and maybe that would bring more hope for the future of the program under KF.

I know that puts a lot of importance on just one game, but I think a lot of you would agree with me that this game is a bit of a referendum on the Ferentz boys.
 
In other words, it's a must win for the B1G Champ or West.
No, it’s not.

Until everyone got sloppy with word meaning, “must win” always meant, “must win, or there is no chance, no matter how slim, of achieving the goal in question”.

We could lose to Wisconsin, win the rest, Wisconsin could lose out, and we’d be West champs.

So game this Saturday is not a “must win”.
 
No, it’s not.

Until everyone got sloppy with word meaning, “must win” always meant, “must win, or there is no chance, no matter how slim, of achieving the goal in question”.

We could lose to Wisconsin, win the rest, Wisconsin could lose out, and we’d be West champs.

So game this Saturday is not a “must win”.
Yes, it is. I like living in reality.
 
This game has the feeling of huge implications. Losses to Wisky in 1997 and 2010 seemed to send the program into a tailspin. I have a feeling that a beatdown on Saturday is something that Iowa wouldn't recover from for a long, long time. OTOH, a win could mean that, despite the problems, Iowa could be headed for a special season, and maybe that would bring more hope for the future of the program under KF.
Referendum is an excellent word to use here.

I agree 100%

I think even if Iowa went 10-2 and won its bowl game - if it loses this game in ugly fashion - even a bowl win wouldn't elevate this into a "good" season. Which seems insane to say for a 10-win, bowl game winning season - but I truly believe that would be the case.
 
by:Tory Brecht•about 1 hour•
https://twitter.com/ToryBrecht

Deacon Hill
Photo by Jeffrey Becker, USA TODAY Sports.

Iowa’s upcoming game against the Wisconsin Badgers inside a hostile Camp Randall isn’t a “must-win” by any conventional metric. It may, however, fit in that category in terms of fan goodwill.

Despite its 5-1 record and two-game winning streak engineered by flawed-but-game backup quarterback Deacon Hill, a large contingent of the black and gold fan base remains agitated, irritable and dissatisfied.

The old cliché states winning cures all ills, but in Iowa City at least, winning ugly doesn’t.

Although Iowa never really looked as if it might lose to Purdue last week, a late offensive stall out, some questionable play calling on third-and-short and a quick strike touchdown from the Boilermakers made the 20-14 victory feel more precarious than it needed to be.

It didn’t help that Hill, in his first start, was erratic and uncomfortable most of the day. It also didn’t help that wide receivers caught a total of zero balls (although they were targeted seven times, or on one-third of Hill’s attempts.) The offense, statistically, was better and the running game was – dare we say it – a legitimate weapon. But enough warts remain to keep Iowa fans cagey and skeptical.
I believe the only way to truly get fans back on board is for the Hawkeyes to find a way to win against the last remaining good team on its schedule this weekend. Win in Madison – ugly or not – control your Big 10 Championship Game destiny and the bandwagon will start filling up again.

It’s a tall, but not impossible task.

Iowa has won two out of its last three games against the Badgers, including last year’s relatively comfortable 24-10 victory inside Kinnick Stadium.
Over those three games, the Badgers have averaged just over 14 points a game. Iowa, by contrast, has averaged just under 13 points in those three tilts.

The path to victory, as it has been over the past several offensively challenged seasons, is to claw out an early lead, then use a suffocating defense and killer special teams to secure the win. Iowa could not achieve this against an uber-talented Penn State team, but I believe Wisconsin talent-wise is much closer to the Hawkeyes.

Lost in the hand wringing over Deacon Hill’s bad day and a handful of missed scoring attempts against Purdue is that Iowa shored up a couple prior weaknesses.

A defensive line that couldn’t generate sacks across its first five games pummeled the Boilermakers’ quarterback six times. The running game got on track with 181 yards highlighted by Kaleb Johnson’s impressive 8.6 yards per carry – and that was into a stacked box because of the passing game woes.

Wisconsin’s defense will present a much bigger challenge than Purdue’s, but if Iowa can get production on the ground, it can find a way to put up points. What must change is Iowa’s third-down production. The Hawkeyes were a woeful 3 of 13 on third down last Saturday. If the Hawkeyes don’t find a way to convert a few more against Bucky, a win will be very difficult to achieve.
Iowa’s last road game in Happy Valley was an unmitigated disaster and did much to set the sour tone that is lingering in the fan base, despite wins piling up. It doesn’t help that both the Michigan State and Purdue games were uncomfortable, white-knuckle affairs at times.

Unfortunately, nearly every Iowa-Wisconsin game plays out as an uncomfortable, white-knuckle affair and there is no reason to believe that won’t once again be the case this Saturday in Madison.
What will be tested is this Iowa team’s resiliency. Thus far, outside of one rainy night in Pennsylvania, this patchwork team has shown the heart and grit to grind out ugly wins.

Do that again this coming Saturday and the heat on the coaching staff will be significantly turned down. If the Hawkeyes flail and fail on offense and drop this game in ugly fashion, the heat will be turned way, way up.

Saturday against Wisconsin may not be a must-win. However, it needs to be competitive and somehow show that Iowa’s relatively gaudy record isn’t fraudulent. The opportunity exists for the Hawkeyes to shift the negative narrative. Here’s hoping they find that path on the road.

Follow me on Twitter @ToryBrecht and the 12 Saturdays Podcast @12Saturdays.
They are Iowa's #1 contender for the West title, yes it's a must win.
 
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Wisky is a bit of a benchmark for Iowa, and really for the B1G West. It is an oddity that the past 2 seasons the B1G West champ lost to Wisky, because every other season of its existence the B1G West Champ was either Wisky or a team that beat them, as will be the case this season.

Wisky is coming off of its first losing B1G season since 2008 and had a total coaching overhaul this past offseason - and they are 10-point favorites over Iowa on Saturday as an unranked team, and Iowa is probably their only competition for the division. That is a testimonial to how lousy the B1G West is, and IMO a red flag on Iowa's program, which has rock-solid stability at the top but controversial coaching hires and retainees on the offensive side of the ball, not to mention major misses in recruiting, very poor player development, & questionably outdated and ineffective offensive philosophy, have resulted in underperforming for 3-4 seasons now despite elite defense and special teams.

This game has the feeling of huge implications. Losses to Wisky in 1997 and 2010 seemed to send the program into a tailspin. I have a feeling that a beatdown on Saturday is something that Iowa wouldn't recover from for a long, long time. OTOH, a win could mean that, despite the problems, Iowa could be headed for a special season, and maybe that would bring more hope for the future of the program under KF.

I know that puts a lot of importance on just one game, but I think a lot of you would agree with me that this game is a bit of a referendum on the Ferentz boys.
It definitely has big implications IMO. A win over Wisconsin puts Iowa in the driver's seat for the West. A loss does the same for Wisconsin. Winning the West ensures that there will be few if any changes to the Iowa offensive staff next year. Not winning the West makes things a little more interesting in the off-season. So yeah, it's a pretty important game in the grand scheme of Iowa football.
 
They have averaged just under 13 ppg in their last three games against Wisconsin.

Wisconsin, however, has only averaged just over 14 ppg in its last three games against Iowa.

This has the makings of another 13-10 slugfest.
That's what I am talking about, 2020, Iowa 28, Wisky 7, 2021, Iowa 7, Wisky 27, 2022, Iowa 24, Wisky 10. Last I checked 28 + 7 + 24 = 59, 59/3 = 19.667
 
Referendum is an excellent word to use here.

I agree 100%

I think even if Iowa went 10-2 and won its bowl game - if it loses this game in ugly fashion - even a bowl win wouldn't elevate this into a "good" season. Which seems insane to say for a 10-win, bowl game winning season - but I truly believe that would be the case.
95% of the time, it would certainly be insane.

But at Iowa, where we do the same shit season after season…

…Where coaches aren’t fired after years of being [pretty much] the worst in the country…

…Where signs of poor recruiting and development are glaring issues.

It’s not insane to be bored as hell with Iowa football. Just tired of it.

We desperately need to inject some life and energy into this program.
 
Add in 2019's game of Iowa 22, Wisky 24, and you get iowa at 20.25, and wisky 17.
This is stupid. It's an entirely new staff. Any idiot knows you have to take the previous numbers and divide them by the square root of pi in order to normalize them. Then, and only then can you accurately predict the outcome. 🧐
 
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It definitely has big implications IMO. A win over Wisconsin puts Iowa in the driver's seat for the West. A loss does the same for Wisconsin. Winning the West ensures that there will be few if any changes to the Iowa offensive staff next year. Not winning the West makes things a little more interesting in the off-season. So yeah, it's a pretty important game in the grand scheme of Iowa football.
Hmmm - now you got me thinking about putting some coin against Iowa…a Win/Win scenario…. 🤪

Note: I have never had the guts to bet against Iowa!
 
It definitely has big implications IMO. A win over Wisconsin puts Iowa in the driver's seat for the West. A loss does the same for Wisconsin. Winning the West ensures that there will be few if any changes to the Iowa offensive staff next year. Not winning the West makes things a little more interesting in the off-season. So yeah, it's a pretty important game in the grand scheme of Iowa football.
With this basically being the last chance we will ever have to win anything, (the West) is definitely a must win. Lose this and probably in my lifetime we won’t ever sniff any kind of championship game with the PAC 12 schools coming in. Now while we know we’d get blitzkrieged again by Michigan, OSU or PSU, it’s basically our last chance. Let’s at least get there. Now if we go out and lose 20-0 then hopefully the administration realizes it’s just time for this to find it’s ending.
 
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With this basically being the last chance we will ever have to win anything, (the West) is definitely a must win. Lose this and probably in my lifetime we won’t ever sniff any kind of championship game with the PAC 12 schools coming in. Now while we know we’d get blitzkrieged again by Michigan, OSU or PSU, it’s basically our last chance. Let’s at least get there. Now if we go out and lose 20-0 then hopefully the administration realizes it’s just time for this to find it’s ending.
Good lord, remind me to never ask you for pep talk 😂
 
Just yanking your chain.

Iowa will have some great teams in the future. The program is on a solid foundation.

The stability of two HOF coaches at the helm since 1979, solid NIL program in place, great fan support, excellent facilities, lots of money.

It won’t be easy - it never has for Iowa - but I’d rather be us than about 8-10 other Big 10 teams.
 
With this basically being the last chance we will ever have to win anything, (the West) is definitely a must win. Lose this and probably in my lifetime we won’t ever sniff any kind of championship game with the PAC 12 schools coming in. Now while we know we’d get blitzkrieged again by Michigan, OSU or PSU, it’s basically our last chance. Let’s at least get there. Now if we go out and lose 20-0 then hopefully the administration realizes it’s just time for this to find it’s ending.
You should change your handle to LittleMissSunshine.
 
Just yanking your chain.

Iowa will have some great teams in the future. The program is on a solid foundation.

The stability of two HOF coaches at the helm since 1979, solid NIL program in place, great fan support, excellent facilities, lots of money.

It won’t be easy - it never has for Iowa - but I’d rather be us than about 8-10 other Big 10 teams.
Oh, I totally agree. But do we just let Kirk stay as long as he wants? 75? Not sure I’ve actually read your opinion on this.
 
You should change your handle to LittleMissSunshine.
Do you disagree? Under the current regime, and probably almost any regime, it’s going to be tougher and tougher moving forward against the current Big 3 in the Big Ten plus 3 of the 4 PAC schools. UCLA still has work to do but it’s a big climb.
 
Oh, I totally agree. But do we just let Kirk stay as long as he wants? 75? Not sure I’ve actually read your opinion on this.
I don’t think it’s gonna matter. I think he’s going to retire within 3 seasons. He doesn’t strike me as a hang around until forced out kind of guy.
 
Nebraska has a big bone for them and don't count out Minnesota as that is just like when we play Iowa State.
I don't see Nebraska beating them but Minnesota...I could absolutely see. I just feel it will be a close one. Actually, I can see Minnesota finally beating both us and Wisconsin this year. Hope not but it's been a long while since that's happened.
 
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