UPDATED after 2023 Title Game: 1 Team in the Last 12 Seasons (2% of 48 teams) has made the Final 4 w/ a Defense Ranked Worse than 70th in the Nation
- Thread starter Franisdaman
- Start date
Based on the info in the orig post and on what follows, will Houston, Villanova or Kansas be our National Champion?
KenPom has been around for 19 National Champions. Of the 19 national champions tracked by KenPom:
* The lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).
* 17 of the 19 national champions in the sample (89.4%) finished in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
Here are the rankings of the Elite 8 teams as of today:
WEST REGIONAL FINAL (Saturday)
Off.....Def
53........11.....Arkansas (#16 team, per KenPom)
...2.......46....Duke (#8 team, per KenPom)
EAST REGIONAL FINAL (Sunday)
Off.....Def
.19........42.....North Carolina (#18 team, per KenPom)
216.......24.....St Peters (#99 team, per KenPom)
SOUTH REGIONAL FINAL (Saturday)
Off.....Def
...8........10.....Houston (#2 team, per KenPom)
...9........25.....Villanova (#10 team, per KenPom)
MIDWEST REGIONAL FINAL (Sunday)
Off.....Def
...6........22....Kansas (#5 team, per KenPom)
..18.......114...Miami FL (#35 team, per KenPom)
KenPom has been around for 19 National Champions. Of the 19 national champions tracked by KenPom:
* The lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).
* 17 of the 19 national champions in the sample (89.4%) finished in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
Here are the rankings of the Elite 8 teams as of today:
WEST REGIONAL FINAL (Saturday)
Off.....Def
53........11.....Arkansas (#16 team, per KenPom)
...2.......46....Duke (#8 team, per KenPom)
EAST REGIONAL FINAL (Sunday)
Off.....Def
.19........42.....North Carolina (#18 team, per KenPom)
216.......24.....St Peters (#99 team, per KenPom)
SOUTH REGIONAL FINAL (Saturday)
Off.....Def
...8........10.....Houston (#2 team, per KenPom)
...9........25.....Villanova (#10 team, per KenPom)
MIDWEST REGIONAL FINAL (Sunday)
Off.....Def
...6........22....Kansas (#5 team, per KenPom)
..18.......114...Miami FL (#35 team, per KenPom)
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Looks like the Sweet 16 was half and half (defensive ratings in parentheses) ...
Lower D beats Higher D
Arkansas (14) beat Gonzaga (9)
Duke (43) beat Texas Tech (1)
Miami (123) beat ISU (5)
North Carolina (42) beat UCLA (13)
Higher D beats Lower D
St Peters (28) beat Purdue (89)
Houston (10) beat Arizona (18)
Villanova (30) beat Michigan (78)
Kansas (26) beat Providence (58)
Miami (#114 defense) is unlikely going to make the Final 4. 10 years of history has shown you need a defense #70 or better to make the Final 4.
The other 7 Elite 8 teams, coming into today, have a defense ranked #46 or better.
And as I mentioned above, KenPom has been around for 19 National Champions. Of the 19 national champions tracked by KenPom, the lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).
Based on this, it appears that Houston, Villanova or Kansas will be our National Champion.
Here are the rankings of the Elite 8 teams as of today:
WEST REGIONAL FINAL (Saturday)
Off.....Def
53........11.....Arkansas (#16 team, per KenPom)
...2.......46....Duke (#8 team, per KenPom)
EAST REGIONAL FINAL (Sunday)
Off.....Def
.19........42.....North Carolina (#18 team, per KenPom)
216.......24.....St Peters (#99 team, per KenPom)
SOUTH REGIONAL FINAL (Saturday)
Off.....Def
...8........10.....Houston (#2 team, per KenPom)
...9........25.....Villanova (#10 team, per KenPom)
MIDWEST REGIONAL FINAL (Sunday)
Off.....Def
...6........22....Kansas (#5 team, per KenPom)
..18.......114...Miami FL (#35 team, per KenPom)
Villanova or Kansas will be our National Champion based on what follows.
KenPom has been around for 19 National Champions.
Of the 19 national champions tracked by KenPom, the lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).
Only 2 teams remain that would fit this narrative.
* Villanova's Defense should be #22 or better if/when they win the National Championship (they currently have the #9 offense and the #25 defense).
* Kansas is already there: #6 offense, #22 defense
Coming into today there are 6 teams left. Only Miami (#114) has a defense ranked worse than #70 in the country.
KemPom Rankings Heading into Today's Games:
WEST REGION
Off.....Def
...1.........45....Duke (#7 team, per KenPom)
EAST REGION
Off.....Def
.19........42.....North Carolina (#18 team, per KenPom)
216.......25.....St Peters (#98 team, per KenPom)
SOUTH REGION
Off.....Def
...9........17.....Villanova (#8 team, per KenPom)
MIDWEST REGION
Off.....Def
...6........23....Kansas (#5 team, per KenPom)
..18.......114...Miami FL (#35 team, per KenPom)
KemPom Rankings Heading into Today's Games:
WEST REGION
Off.....Def
...1.........45....Duke (#7 team, per KenPom)
EAST REGION
Off.....Def
.19........42.....North Carolina (#18 team, per KenPom)
216.......25.....St Peters (#98 team, per KenPom)
SOUTH REGION
Off.....Def
...9........17.....Villanova (#8 team, per KenPom)
MIDWEST REGION
Off.....Def
...6........23....Kansas (#5 team, per KenPom)
..18.......114...Miami FL (#35 team, per KenPom)
IOWA (26-10) right now has the #4 offense & the #82 defense, which is simply not good enough to make a Final 4. Overall, IOWA is the #13 team, per KenPom.
KenPom has been around for 19 National Champions. Of the 19 National Champions tracked by KenPom:
* The lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).
* 17 of the 19 national champions in the sample (89.4%) finished in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
Expect the Villanova/Kansas winner to be your National Champion.
FINAL 4
KemPom Rankings:
WEST REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def
...1..........45....Duke, 32-6 (#8 team, per KenPom)
EAST REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def
..18........39.....North Carolina, 28-9 (#16 team, per KenPom)
SOUTH REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def
...9.........18.....Villanova, 30-7 (#9 team, per KenPom)
MIDWEST REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def
...7.........17....Kansas, 32-6 (#4 team, per KenPom)
KenPom has been around for 19 National Champions. Of the 19 National Champions tracked by KenPom:
* The lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).
* 17 of the 19 national champions in the sample (89.4%) finished in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
Expect the Villanova/Kansas winner to be your National Champion.
FINAL 4
KemPom Rankings:
WEST REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def
...1..........45....Duke, 32-6 (#8 team, per KenPom)
EAST REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def
..18........39.....North Carolina, 28-9 (#16 team, per KenPom)
SOUTH REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def
...9.........18.....Villanova, 30-7 (#9 team, per KenPom)
MIDWEST REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def
...7.........17....Kansas, 32-6 (#4 team, per KenPom)
Can someone let me know how many National Champions Kenpom has been around for? I can't find that information anywhere.....
Well played. Fran's posts can get a bit repetitive. But pretty much if you want to win a national title have to play defense. Even with a great offense, there are going to be games where the offense falls flat (see Iowa this year against Richmond).
The game against Richmond will still a lot longer than even the game against Oregon on 2021. Team this year had the roster and the bracket to get to the Sweet 16. But life doesn't work out all the time like people want it.
Iowa getting a legitimate rim protector would go a long way into shoring up the defense. Hopefully they have a good shot at that Aimaq kid, his 87.5 defensive efficiency rating this past year is excellent and he appears to have good size.
The Hawks haven't had a true rim protector since the Woodbury/Olaseni days. During those years Iowa's defensive rankings per Pomeroy were:
2013 - 24th
2014 - 77th
2015 - 34th
2016 - 30th (only Woodbury this year)
It’s too easy to point to KenPom rankings and fall into thinking that a specific recipe is going to win it. Yeah, ISU was better defensively than ISU, but ISU limits themselves with how poor they are on offense. And then Miami gets its doors blown off by 20 minutes of elite play by Kansas. Is Kansas better defensively than ISU? No, but they have a lot of guys who can put it on the floor and create.
Villanova and Houston were nearly identical metrics-wise, but they won because they took a ferocious rebounding team off the boards. That was so impressive! #115 in rebounding margin, #208 in defensive rebounding, and they negated a HUGE component to Houston’s success.
Unfortunately with Moore’s injury, it will be really tough for them to take down Kansas. Kansas has better outside shooting then did Houston, and Remy Martin picked a great time to play like an All-American caliber guard. But…Jay Wright is ridiculous, and I could easily see him taking Martin out of the game and making Agbaji/Braun beat them.
As for Duke, they’re on a quest from the Basketball Gods, and they are so talented. That is going to be an epic game.
Villanova and Houston were nearly identical metrics-wise, but they won because they took a ferocious rebounding team off the boards. That was so impressive! #115 in rebounding margin, #208 in defensive rebounding, and they negated a HUGE component to Houston’s success.
Unfortunately with Moore’s injury, it will be really tough for them to take down Kansas. Kansas has better outside shooting then did Houston, and Remy Martin picked a great time to play like an All-American caliber guard. But…Jay Wright is ridiculous, and I could easily see him taking Martin out of the game and making Agbaji/Braun beat them.
As for Duke, they’re on a quest from the Basketball Gods, and they are so talented. That is going to be an epic game.
KenPom has now been around for the last 20 National Champions.
Of the 20 national champions tracked by KenPom:
(1) The lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).
2022 National Champion Kansas was #6 in Offensive Efficiency and #17 in Defensive Efficiency.
Runner up North Carolina was #18 in Offensive Efficiency and #35 in Defensive Efficiency.
IOWA was #4 in Offensive Efficiency and #80 in Defensive Efficiency. We have some work to do on defense in order to win a national championship,@EvilMonkeyInTheCloset !!!
(2) 18 of the 20 national champions (90%) finished in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
Of the 20 national champions tracked by KenPom:
(1) The lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).
2022 National Champion Kansas was #6 in Offensive Efficiency and #17 in Defensive Efficiency.
Runner up North Carolina was #18 in Offensive Efficiency and #35 in Defensive Efficiency.
IOWA was #4 in Offensive Efficiency and #80 in Defensive Efficiency. We have some work to do on defense in order to win a national championship,@EvilMonkeyInTheCloset !!!
(2) 18 of the 20 national champions (90%) finished in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
And Iowa picked the worst time to lose a game when out rebounding their opponent.
Lack of strong post offensively also hurt when shots aren't falling
The Richmond game is a recurring theme under Fran. It APPEARS that the players don't "double down" on their defensive effort when the shots aren't falling, they're focus APPEARS to stay the same on defensive hoping that they will shoot their way back into the game. MY OPINION, it's a poor strategy for 3 star athletes to think they don't have to go extra on D when the offense is in a funk. Instead they hope to get lucky by over playing passing lanes to get steals. The extra effort should be staying in front of your man and then boxing your man out from getting a rebound. Richmond had a quick pt guard who controlled the pace of the game. Iowa did not stop/control him.
So you need to be a complete team (both offense and defense) to win a title. Who knew.
Yeah, Iowa needs to make defense a priority. It's definitely the elephant in the room that hasn't been addressed.
If Iowa and Iowa State could combine their best attributes, the resulting team would be Final 4 material. On the flip side, a team combining Iowa’s defense and Iowa State’s offense would truly suck.
Many here have stated the dire need for a rim protector, the missing piece of a faulty defense. I beg to differ. If you watched the title game or any matchup after the Sweet 16, you saw tremendous pressure on the ball as well as defensive rotations that always covered the backside. Help defense with no easy baskets.
These top teams stick to you like glue and make offense a real chore.
Many here have stated the dire need for a rim protector, the missing piece of a faulty defense. I beg to differ. If you watched the title game or any matchup after the Sweet 16, you saw tremendous pressure on the ball as well as defensive rotations that always covered the backside. Help defense with no easy baskets.
These top teams stick to you like glue and make offense a real chore.
If I didn’t actually watch the game and read this it would have APPEARED that Iowa gave up 90 points instead of 67 or .97/possession. In MY OPINION Iowa had a really shitty shooting night. In MY OPINION Iowa wins comfortably with the same defensive effort coupled with an average shooting night. It APPEARS that we disagree but that’s ok since these are all OPINIONS.
The reality is these numbers have been in Frans face for years and I would argue that it took until this year to really focus on it. Even with that he put jbo at the point to better space the floor and get jbo good looks. The offense he coaches is top notch in style and effectiveness, the D not so much. I can handle Iowa losing but it sure hurts more when they concede the corner 3 from a "junk" zone. UNC was really not a great team on D, except they were world class re bounders that covered for their short comings on D. I think Iowa could better utilize the numbers and trade some O to get better D.
I think Iowa would lose by 10 or 11 to KU. The talent disparity is too great, imo.
Also, all of KU's starters were either in their 3rd or 4th years; their experience paid off, especially when down by 15 at half time.
Compare both team's starting 5's:
Kansas (4 FOUR Stars, 1 THREE Star)
IOWA (1 FOUR Star, 3 THREE Stars, 1 TWO Star)
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Could Iowa make a run to a Sweet 16 this season? With some luck, sure, why not? After all, Miami made the Midwest Regional Final last season ranked #42 by KenPom, with the #18 offense & the #123 defense.
But any further than that? Not likely.
Ken Pom Rankings for IOWA:
#32 Ranked Team
#6 Offense
#122 Defense
But any further than that? Not likely.
Ken Pom Rankings for IOWA:
#32 Ranked Team
#6 Offense
#122 Defense
Iowa basketball finishes in KenPom adjusted defense the past 4 seasons:
2019- 111
2020- 97
2021- 75
2022- 80
2019- 111
2020- 97
2021- 75
2022- 80
20 of the last 25 National Champions have finished the season ranked higher in offensive efficiency than defensive efficiency after Kansas' win on Monday night, per KenPom.
Defense has to be good enough...but offense wins championships.
I went back ten years or so and Baylor had the 'worst' defensive ranking of 22nd. Basically a team needs to be top 20 in both categories to have a realistic shot.
I've been harping on this board for years that Fran needs to bring in a defensive minded assistant coach. Imagine the gall of the man to ignore all the free advice given on this board!
Defense has to be good enough...but offense wins championships.
I went back ten years or so and Baylor had the 'worst' defensive ranking of 22nd. Basically a team needs to be top 20 in both categories to have a realistic shot.
I've been harping on this board for years that Fran needs to bring in a defensive minded assistant coach. Imagine the gall of the man to ignore all the free advice given on this board!
Or, you could have checked out the orig post.
As you will see, KenPom has been around for 20 National Champions. Of the 20 national champions tracked by KenPom, the lowest any National Champion finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor). Also from the orig post:
* You can learn a lot by looking at the results of the last 14 NCAA Tournaments. From Kansas cutting down the nets in 2008 to Kansas taking the most recent title in 2022, only 5 of 56 teams (8.9 percent) that went into those tourneys ranked outside the top 20 in KenPom advanced to the Final Four. Iowa currently is ranked #32.
* 2022 National Champion Kansas was #6 in Offensive Efficiency and #17 in Defensive Efficiency. Runner up North Carolina was #18 in Offensive Efficiency and #35 in Defensive Efficiency.
* 18 of the 20 national champions in the sample (90%) finished in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
This is very true. Ogundele and Mulvey lead current Iowa team in defensive rating, Ogundele at 94.5, altough not the single silver bullet to Frans defensive weaknesses, would certainly benefit this current pathetic defensIve team.
Iowa basketball finishes in Kenpom adjusted defense the past four years:
2022- 80
2021- 75
2020- 97
2019- 111
iowa with Brian Ferentz as OC has a better chance at football Final four
than Frans teams do with this consistently pathetic defense
That's crazy how bad our defense is. No excuses. And we all thought Jbo was the problem.
Agree, with a dash of CJ Frederick and PMac, but no…Fran is ultimately responsible.
You are what your record says you are. -Bill Parcells
Many thought Iowa's defense would be better this year with JBo gone and with him being replaced by Tony Perkins.
Last year's defense finished ranked #80. This year? We currently are #159.
What happened?
Today, KenPom has us ranked #32. He has our offense ranked 5th in the country & our defense #159. Iowa is dead last in the B1G in defense.
Of the 20 national champions tracked by KenPom, the lowest any National Champion finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor). Based on this, Purdue looks like the only true national title contender from the B1G.
The B1G teams ranked by defense:
Defense..Offense...Team
Rank........Rank........Rank
2.................124............17.....Rutgers
18.................52...........25....Illinois
20..................3.............5.....Purdue
25.................41...........24.....Maryland
26.................75...........42....Michigan State
28...............135...........64....Wisconsin
29................95...........50....Northwestern
42................18............21.....Indiana
60..............187..........104....Nebraska
72................42...........51.....Michigan
93................19...........39.....Ohio State
106.............23...........56.....Penn State
150............281..........221....Minnesota
159..............5..........32....Iowa
Last year's defense finished ranked #80. This year? We currently are #159.
What happened?
Today, KenPom has us ranked #32. He has our offense ranked 5th in the country & our defense #159. Iowa is dead last in the B1G in defense.
Of the 20 national champions tracked by KenPom, the lowest any National Champion finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor). Based on this, Purdue looks like the only true national title contender from the B1G.
The B1G teams ranked by defense:
Defense..Offense...Team
Rank........Rank........Rank
2.................124............17.....Rutgers
18.................52...........25....Illinois
20..................3.............5.....Purdue
25.................41...........24.....Maryland
26.................75...........42....Michigan State
28...............135...........64....Wisconsin
29................95...........50....Northwestern
42................18............21.....Indiana
60..............187..........104....Nebraska
72................42...........51.....Michigan
93................19...........39.....Ohio State
106.............23...........56.....Penn State
150............281..........221....Minnesota
159..............5..........32....Iowa
That defensive rating is awful. What is Cooper DeJean doing in March?
Exactly!
frans team have never gotten to the 2nd weekend
doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different result = definition of insanity.
exactly why some here have been imploring the use of adding defensive players into the rotation
IOWA top defender for the season is Josh Ogundele
it’s easy to make an arguement on why IOWA needs a rim protector , rebounder, and solid 1v1 post defender that doesn’t allow post players to shoot with no discomfort at all
TY for posting evidence piece #1
The problem? Only one of last year's Sweet 16 teams came close to being as bad as Iowa is defensively this year (#123 Miami)
2022 Sweet 16
KemPom Rankings:
WEST REGION
Off.....Def
...1.........9......Gonzaga (#1 team, per KenPom)
53........14.....Arkansas (#18 team, per KenPom)
46.........1......Texas Tech (#6 team, per KenPom)
...4.......43....Duke (#10 team, per KenPom)
EAST REGION
Off.....Def
.20........42.....North Carolina (#20 team, per KenPom)
..12.........13.....UCLA (#8 team, per KenPom)
...2........89.....Purdue (#12 team, per KenPom)
226.......28.....St Peters (#102 team, per KenPom)
SOUTH REGION
Off.....Def
...7.........18.....Arizona (#3 team, per KenPom)
..10........10.....Houston (#2 team, per KenPom)
..19........78.....Michigan (#27 team, per KenPom)
...8........30.....Villanova (#11 team, per KenPom)
MIDWEST REGION
Off.....Def
...6........26....Kansas (#5 team, per KenPom)
..32.......58....Providence (#33 team, per KenPom)
156.........5....Iowa State (#37 team, per KenPom)
..18.......123...Miami FL (#42 team, per KenPom)
