There is a lot in here that is factually correct, but it ignores the consequences of the action.
You are right about China being the largest threat. But you have to consider what happens when we implement the tariffs
without the infrastructure and capability to replace the goods you are taxing. The real discussion here is do we want a full-on economic war with China and are we as a country prepared to pay the price for that war?
One could say yes, voters absolutely voted for 60% tariffs on all Chinese made goods (and 20% on all other imports by the way). But one could also say no, consumers voted for Trump’s promise of lower prices. These two are not in alignment. If you push tariffs you get higher prices. Full stop.
And then you have to consider the timeline to replace the goods made in China. This would take many years unless there was major government intervention (i.e. invoke the defense production act). We lack four things to make this happen in a timely fashion
- Industrial real estate: more manufacturing and warehousing. This ain’t cheap and it isn’t present today. It is a multi year process to build
- Manufacturing equipment: robotics, machinery, etc.
- Skilled labor
- Established supply chain for all the raw materials, intermediate goods, etc.
Net net if you want to go all-in on an economic war, you have to be prepared for the consequences - higher prices, potential shortages, etc. These impacts will take YEARS to resolve. It is more akin to a WW2 economic mobilization than anything else we have done in modern memory. That is a massive sacrifice. I submit that the same voters who elected Trump would abandon him if they fully understood the consequences required to take the tariff path.