Quick update - all four games went against us yesterday, but there were no major impacts as Wichita St & Illinois St avoided bad losses and Iowa State lost on the road to a solid West Virginia team. UNI couldn't bump our RPI and are now done for the year.
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Saturday has TON of action, so apologies in advance if I miss any games. Please point any you think are missing out and I will edit if necessary.
Illinois @ Rutgers - Illinois has really solidified their resume to the point that I project they'll likely make the tournament, but a loss to Rutgers won't help!
Indiana @ Ohio State - both are "fringe at best" bubble teams, but my opinion is that Ohio State is slightly closer to the cut line than Indiana. This game matters more for BTT seeding than anything, but may have miniscule bubble impacts.
Providence @ St. John's - Providence has worked their way into the field at the moment, so looking for a bad loss to knock them back down.
Texas Tech @ Kansas St - Kansas St is on the outside looking in. Let's keep it that way and move one spot closer to the cut line.
Georgia @ Arkansas - Georgia survived Auburn a few days ago, now they've got their shot to jump into the field with a road win @ Arkansas. Wooo Pig.
Florida @ Vanderbilt - This could be Vandy's opportunity to solidify a tournament bid by completing a sweep of Florida. Hopefully they fail and leave plenty of holes in their resume.
Michigan St @ Maryland - MSU isn't quite locked up, so this is more of a formality and again has more impact to BTT seeding than anything.
California @ Colorado - This would officially knock California out, hopefully they perform just as poorly as a few nights ago when they were blown out @ Utah!
George Mason @ VCU - VCU will likely be in, but we can't be completely sure at this point. Even if they are in, if we handle business, perhaps we avoid Dayton for the likes of teams like VCU.
Xavier @ DePaul - If you're looking for a fall from grace worse than Indiana, Xavier is your best bet. A top 10 team entering the year is in disarray down the stretch. Can the possibly miss the tournament entirely? A loss to DePaul may be enough to do that.
Seton Hall @ Butler - Seton Hall is currently one of the last few teams in, let's keep the positive aspects of their resume limited.
Creighton @ Marquette - Marquette recently beat Xavier to jump right near the cut line. Hopefully they fail to capitalize on this opportunity and step back into the tides of mediocrity.
TCU @ Oklahoma - The odds that this will matter are low, but this would remove all doubt for TCU, a loss and they're needing an automatic bid.
Southern Illinois vs Illinois St - this is the last opportunity for a questionable loss for Illinois St. In the final they would either play Wichita St or we would want them to take the auto bid from a less deserving conference rival.
Georgia Tech @ Syracuse - Pick your poison. This really sets us up to determine who we root against the rest of the way (and we really would be pleased with each team losing out beyond this game). Conventional wisdom says let Syracuse win at home since the RPI factor weights that lower.
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech - Wake is one of the more solid ACC bubble teams, but I'd prefer they didn't pick up a road win against a tournament team.
Davidson @ Rhode Island - Rhode Island needs to avoid another loss until they get their shot at one of the tournament teams from the A10. Davidson is not one of those teams.
Florida Atlantic @ Middle Tennessee - Looking to add a bad loss to a mid-major before their conference tournament to ensure it becomes a one bid league.
Missouri State vs Wichita State - This is a mirror image of Illinois State. It's the last chance for another questionable loss for Wichita State, and if they advance here, they are the favorite to earn an at large, so we would prefer they just win the automatic bid.
Washington @ USC - USC is one of the last few teams in, but a home loss to a Markelle Fultz-less Washington team would probably change that and leave them with work to do in the Pac 12 tournament.
Colorado State @ Nevada - Nevada is one of the few mid majors under consideration, so again, adding a loss before their conference tournament helps confirm their league as a one bid situation.
UT Arlington @ UL Lafayette - UT Arlington is another mid-major clinging to at-large hopes. This loss would dash them.
Added:
Root for Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the WCC tournament. One of them needs to win the automatic bid to maximize the number of bubble slots.
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Saturday has TON of action, so apologies in advance if I miss any games. Please point any you think are missing out and I will edit if necessary.
Illinois @ Rutgers - Illinois has really solidified their resume to the point that I project they'll likely make the tournament, but a loss to Rutgers won't help!
Indiana @ Ohio State - both are "fringe at best" bubble teams, but my opinion is that Ohio State is slightly closer to the cut line than Indiana. This game matters more for BTT seeding than anything, but may have miniscule bubble impacts.
Providence @ St. John's - Providence has worked their way into the field at the moment, so looking for a bad loss to knock them back down.
Texas Tech @ Kansas St - Kansas St is on the outside looking in. Let's keep it that way and move one spot closer to the cut line.
Georgia @ Arkansas - Georgia survived Auburn a few days ago, now they've got their shot to jump into the field with a road win @ Arkansas. Wooo Pig.
Florida @ Vanderbilt - This could be Vandy's opportunity to solidify a tournament bid by completing a sweep of Florida. Hopefully they fail and leave plenty of holes in their resume.
Michigan St @ Maryland - MSU isn't quite locked up, so this is more of a formality and again has more impact to BTT seeding than anything.
California @ Colorado - This would officially knock California out, hopefully they perform just as poorly as a few nights ago when they were blown out @ Utah!
George Mason @ VCU - VCU will likely be in, but we can't be completely sure at this point. Even if they are in, if we handle business, perhaps we avoid Dayton for the likes of teams like VCU.
Xavier @ DePaul - If you're looking for a fall from grace worse than Indiana, Xavier is your best bet. A top 10 team entering the year is in disarray down the stretch. Can the possibly miss the tournament entirely? A loss to DePaul may be enough to do that.
Seton Hall @ Butler - Seton Hall is currently one of the last few teams in, let's keep the positive aspects of their resume limited.
Creighton @ Marquette - Marquette recently beat Xavier to jump right near the cut line. Hopefully they fail to capitalize on this opportunity and step back into the tides of mediocrity.
TCU @ Oklahoma - The odds that this will matter are low, but this would remove all doubt for TCU, a loss and they're needing an automatic bid.
Southern Illinois vs Illinois St - this is the last opportunity for a questionable loss for Illinois St. In the final they would either play Wichita St or we would want them to take the auto bid from a less deserving conference rival.
Georgia Tech @ Syracuse - Pick your poison. This really sets us up to determine who we root against the rest of the way (and we really would be pleased with each team losing out beyond this game). Conventional wisdom says let Syracuse win at home since the RPI factor weights that lower.
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech - Wake is one of the more solid ACC bubble teams, but I'd prefer they didn't pick up a road win against a tournament team.
Davidson @ Rhode Island - Rhode Island needs to avoid another loss until they get their shot at one of the tournament teams from the A10. Davidson is not one of those teams.
Florida Atlantic @ Middle Tennessee - Looking to add a bad loss to a mid-major before their conference tournament to ensure it becomes a one bid league.
Missouri State vs Wichita State - This is a mirror image of Illinois State. It's the last chance for another questionable loss for Wichita State, and if they advance here, they are the favorite to earn an at large, so we would prefer they just win the automatic bid.
Washington @ USC - USC is one of the last few teams in, but a home loss to a Markelle Fultz-less Washington team would probably change that and leave them with work to do in the Pac 12 tournament.
Colorado State @ Nevada - Nevada is one of the few mid majors under consideration, so again, adding a loss before their conference tournament helps confirm their league as a one bid situation.
UT Arlington @ UL Lafayette - UT Arlington is another mid-major clinging to at-large hopes. This loss would dash them.
Added:
Root for Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the WCC tournament. One of them needs to win the automatic bid to maximize the number of bubble slots.
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