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Weekend Upsets with WrestleStat

andegre

andegre

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May 18, 2004
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Some GREAT upsets this weekend, check them out, three #2's falling this weekend...

133 - #16 Ali Naser (Arizona State) beat #2 Jack Mueller (Virginia) by DEC 10 - 7 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/23812/naser-ali/profile
141 - #15 Thomas Thorn (Minnesota) beat #2 Joseph McKenna (Ohio State) by MD 13 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/21082/thorn-thomas/profile
165 - #3 Vincenzo Joseph (Penn State) beat #2 Logan Massa (Michigan) by MD 12 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39542/joseph-vincenzo/profile
197 - #9 Preston Weigel (Oklahoma State) beat #4 Cash Wilcke (Iowa) by DEC 6 - 0 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20278/weigel-preston/profile
165 - #12 Alex Marinelli (Iowa) beat #6 Chandler Rogers (Oklahoma State) by DEC 5 - 2 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44574/marinelli-alex/profile
125 - #36 Joshua Kramer (Arizona State) beat #8 Louie Hayes (Virginia) by DEC 8 - 5 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39736/kramer-joshua/profile
197 - #23 Rasheed Shakur (Penn State) beat #8 Kevin Beazley (Michigan) by DEC 7 - 1 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20305/shakur-rasheed/profile
184 - #16 Drew Foster (Northern Iowa) beat #9 Bryce Carr (Chattanooga) by TB-1 2 - 1 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20212/foster-drew/profile
184 - #18 Chip Ness (North Carolina) beat #11 Nicholas Gravina (Rutgers) by DEC 4 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20118/ness-chip/profile
165 - #17 Nick Wanzek (Minnesota) beat #11 Te`Shan Campbell (Ohio State) by DEC 8 - 5 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/11511/wanzek-nick/profile
157 - #19 Mike D'angelo (Princeton) beat #12 Bryant Clagon (Rider) by DEC 9 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/43678/d'angelo-mike/profile
149 - #22 Cortlandt Schuyler (Lehigh) beat #14 Jared Prince (Navy) by DEC 8 - 6 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/19989/schuyler-cortlandt/profile
125 - #104 Matteo DeVincenzo (Princeton) beat #16 JR Wert (Rider) by DEC 5 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44772/devincenzo-matteo/profile
133 - #90 Ian Parker (Iowa State) beat #16 Ali Naser (Arizona State) by DEC 4 - 0 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44732/parker-ian/profile
125 - #73 Ibrahim Bunduka (George Mason) beat #16 JR Wert (Rider) by DEC 4 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/19897/bunduka-ibrahim/profile
197 - #33 Jacob Holschlag (Northern Iowa) beat #17 Kyle Conel (Kent State) by DEC 1 - 0 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39800/holschlag-jacob/profile
197 - #24 Scottie Boykin (Chattanooga) beat #17 Kyle Conel (Kent State) by TF5 17 - 2 7:00 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/12756/boykin-scottie/profile
285 - #24 Andrew Dunn (Virginia Tech) beat #17 Jere Heino (Campbell) by FALL 4:19 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/45111/dunn-andrew/profile
149 - #30 Jarrett Degen (Iowa State) beat #18 Josh Maruca (Arizona State) by MD 16 - 8 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44855/degen-jarrett/profile
157 - #28 Kennedy Monday (North Carolina) beat #18 John Van Brill (Rutgers) by MD 16 - 4 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/45025/monday-kennedy/profile
165 - #63 DJ Hollingshead (Bucknell) beat #19 Dawaylon Barnes (Oklahoma) by DEC 5 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39672/hollingshead-dj/profile
 
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Hard to believe the OSU 197 pounder Weigel (#9) was ranked behind Michigan's not very good Beazely (#8).
 
pablow said:
Hard to believe the OSU 197 pounder Weigel (#9) was ranked behind Michigan's not very good Beazely (#8).
Click to expand...
Not really. WrestleStat rankings don't shock me nor do I try to understand them anymore.
The returning national champ is undefeated and bonused everyone this season but he managed to "upset" a wrestler he beat in last year's semis (who had a loss already going into their latest encounter).
165- #3 Vincenzo Joseph (Penn State) beat #2 Logan Massa (Michigan) by MD 12 - 3
 
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157 - #28 Kennedy Monday (North Carolina) beat #18 John Van Brill (Rutgers) by MD 16 - 4

Based on that name, I think we have somebody to keep an eye on at 157...
 
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andegre said:
Some GREAT upsets this weekend, check them out, three #2's falling this weekend...

133 - #16 Ali Naser (Arizona State) beat #2 Jack Mueller (Virginia) by DEC 10 - 7 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/23812/naser-ali/profile
141 - #15 Thomas Thorn (Minnesota) beat #2 Joseph McKenna (Ohio State) by MD 13 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/21082/thorn-thomas/profile
165 - #3 Vincenzo Joseph (Penn State) beat #2 Logan Massa (Michigan) by MD 12 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39542/joseph-vincenzo/profile
197 - #9 Preston Weigel (Oklahoma State) beat #4 Cash Wilcke (Iowa) by DEC 6 - 0 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20278/weigel-preston/profile
165 - #12 Alex Marinelli (Iowa) beat #6 Chandler Rogers (Oklahoma State) by DEC 5 - 2 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44574/marinelli-alex/profile
125 - #36 Joshua Kramer (Arizona State) beat #8 Louie Hayes (Virginia) by DEC 8 - 5 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39736/kramer-joshua/profile
197 - #23 Rasheed Shakur (Penn State) beat #8 Kevin Beazley (Michigan) by DEC 7 - 1 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20305/shakur-rasheed/profile
184 - #16 Drew Foster (Northern Iowa) beat #9 Bryce Carr (Chattanooga) by TB-1 2 - 1 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20212/foster-drew/profile
184 - #18 Chip Ness (North Carolina) beat #11 Nicholas Gravina (Rutgers) by DEC 4 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20118/ness-chip/profile
165 - #17 Nick Wanzek (Minnesota) beat #11 Te`Shan Campbell (Ohio State) by DEC 8 - 5 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/11511/wanzek-nick/profile
157 - #19 Mike D'angelo (Princeton) beat #12 Bryant Clagon (Rider) by DEC 9 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/43678/d'angelo-mike/profile
149 - #22 Cortlandt Schuyler (Lehigh) beat #14 Jared Prince (Navy) by DEC 8 - 6 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/19989/schuyler-cortlandt/profile
125 - #104 Matteo DeVincenzo (Princeton) beat #16 JR Wert (Rider) by DEC 5 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44772/devincenzo-matteo/profile
133 - #90 Ian Parker (Iowa State) beat #16 Ali Naser (Arizona State) by DEC 4 - 0 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44732/parker-ian/profile
125 - #73 Ibrahim Bunduka (George Mason) beat #16 JR Wert (Rider) by DEC 4 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/19897/bunduka-ibrahim/profile
197 - #33 Jacob Holschlag (Northern Iowa) beat #17 Kyle Conel (Kent State) by DEC 1 - 0 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39800/holschlag-jacob/profile
197 - #24 Scottie Boykin (Chattanooga) beat #17 Kyle Conel (Kent State) by TF5 17 - 2 7:00 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/12756/boykin-scottie/profile
285 - #24 Andrew Dunn (Virginia Tech) beat #17 Jere Heino (Campbell) by FALL 4:19 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/45111/dunn-andrew/profile
149 - #30 Jarrett Degen (Iowa State) beat #18 Josh Maruca (Arizona State) by MD 16 - 8 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44855/degen-jarrett/profile
157 - #28 Kennedy Monday (North Carolina) beat #18 John Van Brill (Rutgers) by MD 16 - 4 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/45025/monday-kennedy/profile
165 - #63 DJ Hollingshead (Bucknell) beat #19 Dawaylon Barnes (Oklahoma) by DEC 5 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39672/hollingshead-dj/profile
Click to expand...
Weigel was ranked # 3 on the rankings I have seen.
Joseph winning is certainly not an upset. Defending Nation Champ as a freshman will rarely be an underdog, especially wrestling someone coming off an injury.
 
It seems that WrestleStat uses some type of algorithm to come up with their rankings which obviously is not working out well. All in all, wrestlestat is an incredible source for college wrestling results and there is no other site like it. I would love to do their rankings for them.
 
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Menace Sockeyes said:
Still wrapping my head around this one...

133 - #16 Ali Naser (Arizona State) beat #2 Jack Mueller (Virginia) by DEC 10 - 7
133 - #90 Ian Parker (Iowa State) beat #16 Ali Naser (Arizona State) by DEC 4 - 0
Click to expand...

Going by the infallible, transitive property, Ian Parker(a Michigan native;)) should be an NCAA Finalist this year. GO ISU!!!
 
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andegre said:
Some GREAT upsets this weekend, check them out, three #2's falling this weekend...

133 - #16 Ali Naser (Arizona State) beat #2 Jack Mueller (Virginia) by DEC 10 - 7 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/23812/naser-ali/profile
141 - #15 Thomas Thorn (Minnesota) beat #2 Joseph McKenna (Ohio State) by MD 13 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/21082/thorn-thomas/profile
165 - #3 Vincenzo Joseph (Penn State) beat #2 Logan Massa (Michigan) by MD 12 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39542/joseph-vincenzo/profile
197 - #9 Preston Weigel (Oklahoma State) beat #4 Cash Wilcke (Iowa) by DEC 6 - 0 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20278/weigel-preston/profile
165 - #12 Alex Marinelli (Iowa) beat #6 Chandler Rogers (Oklahoma State) by DEC 5 - 2 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44574/marinelli-alex/profile
125 - #36 Joshua Kramer (Arizona State) beat #8 Louie Hayes (Virginia) by DEC 8 - 5 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39736/kramer-joshua/profile
197 - #23 Rasheed Shakur (Penn State) beat #8 Kevin Beazley (Michigan) by DEC 7 - 1 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20305/shakur-rasheed/profile
184 - #16 Drew Foster (Northern Iowa) beat #9 Bryce Carr (Chattanooga) by TB-1 2 - 1 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20212/foster-drew/profile
184 - #18 Chip Ness (North Carolina) beat #11 Nicholas Gravina (Rutgers) by DEC 4 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20118/ness-chip/profile
165 - #17 Nick Wanzek (Minnesota) beat #11 Te`Shan Campbell (Ohio State) by DEC 8 - 5 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/11511/wanzek-nick/profile
157 - #19 Mike D'angelo (Princeton) beat #12 Bryant Clagon (Rider) by DEC 9 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/43678/d'angelo-mike/profile
149 - #22 Cortlandt Schuyler (Lehigh) beat #14 Jared Prince (Navy) by DEC 8 - 6 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/19989/schuyler-cortlandt/profile
125 - #104 Matteo DeVincenzo (Princeton) beat #16 JR Wert (Rider) by DEC 5 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44772/devincenzo-matteo/profile
133 - #90 Ian Parker (Iowa State) beat #16 Ali Naser (Arizona State) by DEC 4 - 0 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44732/parker-ian/profile
125 - #73 Ibrahim Bunduka (George Mason) beat #16 JR Wert (Rider) by DEC 4 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/19897/bunduka-ibrahim/profile
197 - #33 Jacob Holschlag (Northern Iowa) beat #17 Kyle Conel (Kent State) by DEC 1 - 0 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39800/holschlag-jacob/profile
197 - #24 Scottie Boykin (Chattanooga) beat #17 Kyle Conel (Kent State) by TF5 17 - 2 7:00 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/12756/boykin-scottie/profile
285 - #24 Andrew Dunn (Virginia Tech) beat #17 Jere Heino (Campbell) by FALL 4:19 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/45111/dunn-andrew/profile
149 - #30 Jarrett Degen (Iowa State) beat #18 Josh Maruca (Arizona State) by MD 16 - 8 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44855/degen-jarrett/profile
157 - #28 Kennedy Monday (North Carolina) beat #18 John Van Brill (Rutgers) by MD 16 - 4 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/45025/monday-kennedy/profile
165 - #63 DJ Hollingshead (Bucknell) beat #19 Dawaylon Barnes (Oklahoma) by DEC 5 - 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39672/hollingshead-dj/profile
Click to expand...
Must be flu season....
 
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Gutt15 said:
So how in the hell does WrestleStat come up with these garbage rankings?
Click to expand...
I believe Andegre uses an algorithm based on Vagas odds for poker players(I'm very correctable on that). The longer the data set the more accurate it should be. Joseph lost 2 or 3 times to Massa last year, and only won once, so the algorithm still sees Massa as having the better odds of winning. I think the algorithm would be more accurate if it factored more recent results with more weight than older results.
 
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nearfall2 said:
I believe Andegre uses an algorithm based on Vagas odds for poker players(I'm very correctable on that). The longer the data set the more accurate it should be. Joseph lost 2 or 3 times to Massa last year, and only won once, so the algorithm still sees Massa as having the better odds of winning. I think the algorithm would be more accurate if it factored more recent results with more weight than older results.
Click to expand...
Massa beat Joseph last year?
 
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nearfall2 said:
I believe Andegre uses an algorithm based on Vagas odds for poker players(I'm very correctable on that). The longer the data set the more accurate it should be. Joseph lost 2 or 3 times to Massa last year, and only won once, so the algorithm still sees Massa as having the better odds of winning. I think the algorithm would be more accurate if it factored more recent results with more weight than older results.
Click to expand...

Joseph is 1-2 against IMar and 2-0 vs Massa.
 
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Gutt15 said:
So how in the hell does WrestleStat come up with these garbage rankings?
Click to expand...


Calm down. Predictive analytics requires a decent sample size. They don't make much sense until you start getting larger samples of quality wrestlers competing against each other. It's similar to Sagarin for NCAA football. When the majority of your sample to this point is against Iowa Central, South Dakota and Rutgers 3 times, the computer model has a harder time comparing against better competition. By the Big 10 and NCAA this is a very good tool for comparing matchups.
 
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Peter4321 said:
It seems that WrestleStat uses some type of algorithm to come up with their rankings which obviously is not working out well. All in all, wrestlestat is an incredible source for college wrestling results and there is no other site like it. I would love to do their rankings for them.
Click to expand...
You can't do their rankings for them. The math does it all by itself. No human intervention.
 
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nearfall2 said:
I believe Andegre uses an algorithm based on Vagas odds for poker players(I'm very correctable on that). The longer the data set the more accurate it should be. Joseph lost 2 or 3 times to Massa last year, and only won once, so the algorithm still sees Massa as having the better odds of winning. I think the algorithm would be more accurate if it factored more recent results with more weight than older results.
Click to expand...
1. The ELO ranking system is used by world chess organizations to rank chess players.
2. Joseph did not lose to Massa last year. He beat him 5-4 in the national semis.
 
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Cali_Nittany said:
Joseph is 1-2 against IMar and 2-0 vs Massa.
Click to expand...
Your right. Massa has only lost to Imar and Joseph until his recent injury. Joseph has only lost to Imar, Jordan, and Subject. Loss to Subject may be holding Joseph down a little, and that is why I think more resent results should be weighted more.
 
CP84 said:
Calm down. Predictive analytics requires a decent sample size. They don't make much sense until you start getting larger samples of quality wrestlers competing against each other. It's similar to Sagarin for NCAA football. When the majority of your sample to this point is against Iowa Central, South Dakota and Rutgers 3 times, the computer model has a harder time comparing against better competition. By the Big 10 and NCAA this is a very good tool for comparing matchups.
Click to expand...
You're kind of on the right track, but Wrestlestat is using a wrestler's entire career, rather than just a single year's worth of data. A great wrestler with lots of matches under his belt will have more ELO points than a great wrestler with fewer matches.
Example:
Zain Retherford is 112-3, and has 1660 ELO points.
Kyle Snyder is 62-4, and has 1573 ELO points. There's no doubt that if Snyder had more matches, his ELO points would rival those of Zain.
 
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pawrestlersintn said:
You're kind of on the right track, but Wrestlestat is using a wrestler's entire career, rather than just a single year's worth of data. A great wrestler with lots of matches under his belt will have more ELO points than a great wrestler with fewer matches.
Example:
Zain Retherford is 112-3, and has 1660 ELO points.
Kyle Snyder is 62-4, and has 1573 ELO points. There's no doubt that if Snyder had more matches, his ELO points would rival those of Zain.
Click to expand...
What about Kevin Snyder? How many ELO points does Kevin have?
 
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nearfall2 said:
Your right. Massa has only lost to Imar and Joseph until his recent injury. Joseph has only lost to Imar, Jordan, and Subject. Loss to Subject may be holding Joseph down a little, and that is why I think more resent results should be weighted more.
Click to expand...
It's all about the number of matches.
 
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