I've been thinking a lot about this.
@noleclone2 , your link is only one aspect. How bad could it be? Would Putin accept a L and stay as the President or does he get desperate at the end or does someone finally kill him? Does Russia fragment into multiple huge city states? Are there any remaining opposition party people not already "accidented" by Putin? Was looking at the map of the old Soviet Union, I bet they are perfectly content to remain independent. Russian exports are significant to many markets.
Is there someone worse who might step in? Desperate for money, does someone start to sell off some of Russian nukes? 5,977 nuclear warheads as of 2022. Thats plenty to share with some of the less desirable countries.
Wheat markets are already looking at impacting global food stability for some places.
There is already concerns about winter heating this year due to slowing energy exports.
Coal exports to China drops off, does that impact China's ability to power factories (same with European factories)?
Gold exports likely don't really impact markets, same with copper/aluminum/nickel/iron just due to size (or perhaps it does?)?
Does Putin get desperate at the very end and simply start launching in a blaze of glory? The selling off of nukes seems to be a very possible way to strike out at some enemies.
I can't see it ending in just a quite whimper.
World must be ready for Russia’s disintegration, US general says
The international community must prepare for the potential disintegration of Russia, Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges, former commander of United States Army Europe, wrote in an article for UK newspaper The Telegraph on Sept. 13.www.yahoo.com
@noleclone2 , your link is only one aspect. How bad could it be? Would Putin accept a L and stay as the President or does he get desperate at the end or does someone finally kill him? Does Russia fragment into multiple huge city states? Are there any remaining opposition party people not already "accidented" by Putin? Was looking at the map of the old Soviet Union, I bet they are perfectly content to remain independent. Russian exports are significant to many markets.
Is there someone worse who might step in? Desperate for money, does someone start to sell off some of Russian nukes? 5,977 nuclear warheads as of 2022. Thats plenty to share with some of the less desirable countries.
Wheat markets are already looking at impacting global food stability for some places.
There is already concerns about winter heating this year due to slowing energy exports.
Coal exports to China drops off, does that impact China's ability to power factories (same with European factories)?
Gold exports likely don't really impact markets, same with copper/aluminum/nickel/iron just due to size (or perhaps it does?)?
Does Putin get desperate at the very end and simply start launching in a blaze of glory? The selling off of nukes seems to be a very possible way to strike out at some enemies.
I can't see it ending in just a quite whimper.