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What's the scientific evidence for climate change?

We are talking about the earth and the sun and everything the comprises these two objects. Some are convinced that we have been able to accurately identify and break down a trend using 70-400 years of data on a planet that's 5b years old. I'm not, that's all. I'm not even against having my mind changed (after all, who wants to burn alive???) but it's hard to take anyone seriously with the emotion and politics that drive everyone's opinion on this subject.

A) YOU were referring to solar output; I simply pointed out that it has been stagnant, something that you do not seem to understand or acknowledge.

B) Who is trying to 'break down a trend using 70-400 years of data'? There are HUNDREDS of pieces of evidence and foundational elements of physics and chemistry behind climate science. Not 'just one trend'. We don't do 'science' by plugging in random data pieces into Minitab to look for 'trends', we use the physics and chemistry models we have and know conclusively to study it. That you seem unable to discuss even the most basic of concepts here, and boil everything down to "the planet is 5 billion years old so we cannot learn anything about it using science" is utter nonsense.

If you want to learn the science, then study the science and stop tossing out irrelevant generalizations which have no bearing on the science.
 
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I linked the NOAA.gov website!?!?!? I guess maybe I was wrong assuming that was peer reviewed... FML.

The fact that you can't even CONSIDER that what you believe can be questioned is the very thing that makes me doubt your whole position.

I am happy we've moved on from you calling me names and insulting my intelligence.

Once AGAIN...you are BETTER OFF reading the LATEST science in peer reviewed literature. You CAN find relevant info on NOAA, but you can find BETTER information in the recent publications.

Does NOAA cite the PAGES2K paper?
If not, then it clearly IS NOT the most comprehensive or latest info on the topic.

Did you bother to look up that paper? Are you afraid what it might tell you? Are you incapable of understanding it?

And, FWIW, no, the info at NOAA is NOT NECESSARILY peer reviewed, it is a SUMMARY. Due to many funding cuts over the past years, I would not be surprised that they have not been able to update things like that. But that's because people like Inhofe PREVENT them from doing it.
 
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I am willing to concede that the global temperature has been rising in the last 100 years, to some extent due to human causes.... if you will consent that science has NO idea what the GLOBAL temperature was from 1600-1700. Not regional, not Northern Hemisphere, but the entire Earth's temperature to the accuracy of a tenth of a degree C.

Do you understand error bars?
 
I linked the NOAA.gov website!?!?!? I guess maybe I was wrong assuming that was peer reviewed... FML.

The fact that you can't even CONSIDER that what you believe can be questioned is the very thing that makes me doubt your whole position.

I am happy we've moved on from you calling me names and insulting my intelligence.

LMAO!!!!

Your 'link' is from a 10 YEAR OLD REFERENCE (and a REVIEW of even OLDER references)!!! The PAGES2K data is 2013, and is the MOST RECENT INFORMATION.

How is it you are incapable of understanding that the latest studies, with NEW information, ADD to the understanding is really beyond me.
 
Overall, the PAGES 2k paper provides the best overall reconstruction of local and global surface temperature changes over the past 1,000–2,000 years. As illustrated in Figure 1, their overall results are largely consistent with previous millennial temperaturereconstructions like those by Mann et al. (2008), Ljungkvist (2010), Moberg et al. (2005), and Hegerl et al. (2006).

They find that over the past 2,000 years, until 100 years ago, the planet underwent a long-term cooling trend. There was a 'Medieval Warm Period', but different regions warmed at different times, and overall global surface temperatures were warmer at the end of the 20th century than during the MWP peak. The 2,000-year cooling trend has been erased by the warming over the past century. And of course more warming is yet to come from continuing human greenhouse gas emissions.

It's also worth noting that according to the instrumental temperature record, average surface temperatures for 1982–2012 have been about 0.2°C hotter than the 1970–2000 average. That additional warming would put current global surface temperatures well above any other time over the past 2,000 years. The PAGES 2k team concludes,

"the global warming that has occurred since the end of the nineteenth century reversed a persistent long-term global cooling trend. The increase in average temperature between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries exceeded the temperature difference between all other consecutive centuries in eachregion, except Antarctica and South America."
 
LMAO!!!!

Your 'link' is from a 10 YEAR OLD REFERENCE (and a REVIEW of even OLDER references)!!! The PAGES2K data is 2013, and is the MOST RECENT INFORMATION.

How is it you are incapable of understanding that the latest studies, with NEW information, ADD to the understanding is really beyond me.

It's really quite simple. They're afraid that if they actually take the time to understand the science, they'll have to admit the truth, and that conflicts with what they want the truth to be, so it's much easier to simply parrot the long debunked denialist criticisms fed to them by the echo chamber than to actually learn the truth.
 
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It's really quite simple. They're afraid that if they actually take the time to understand the science, they'll have to admit the truth, and that conflicts with what they want the truth to be, so it's much easier to simply parrot the long debunked denialist criticisms fed to them by the echo chamber than to actually learn the truth.

In ANOTHER breaking newsflash....

433px-Prinicipia-title.png


Sir Isaac Newton's Principia Mathematica has PROVEN that Einstein is full of crap!!!!
:confused:
 
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JoesPlaces,

Thanks for your contributions. This thread is full of swill; I can't read it all.

Please answer this:

1.) Is climate change real?

2.) Are humans causing it?

3.) What are your scientific qualifications?

Thanks!
 
A) YOU were referring to solar output; I simply pointed out that it has been stagnant, something that you do not seem to understand or acknowledge.

B) Who is trying to 'break down a trend using 70-400 years of data'? There are HUNDREDS of pieces of evidence and foundational elements of physics and chemistry behind climate science. Not 'just one trend'. We don't do 'science' by plugging in random data pieces into Minitab to look for 'trends', we use the physics and chemistry models we have and know conclusively to study it. That you seem unable to discuss even the most basic of concepts here, and boil everything down to "the planet is 5 billion years old so we cannot learn anything about it using science" is utter nonsense.

If you want to learn the science, then study the science and stop tossing out irrelevant generalizations which have no bearing on the science.

Listen, i have no reason to accept or deny climate change. As I already mentioned, I am open to being convinced. If you are not able to convince me one way or the other then its not my problem...it's your problem.
 
Overall, the PAGES 2k paper provides the best overall reconstruction of local and global surface temperature changes over the past 1,000–2,000 years. As illustrated in Figure 1, their overall results are largely consistent with previous millennial temperaturereconstructions like those by Mann et al. (2008), Ljungkvist (2010), Moberg et al. (2005), and Hegerl et al. (2006).

They find that over the past 2,000 years, until 100 years ago, the planet underwent a long-term cooling trend. There was a 'Medieval Warm Period', but different regions warmed at different times, and overall global surface temperatures were warmer at the end of the 20th century than during the MWP peak. The 2,000-year cooling trend has been erased by the warming over the past century. And of course more warming is yet to come from continuing human greenhouse gas emissions.

It's also worth noting that according to the instrumental temperature record, average surface temperatures for 1982–2012 have been about 0.2°C hotter than the 1970–2000 average. That additional warming would put current global surface temperatures well above any other time over the past 2,000 years. The PAGES 2k team concludes,

"the global warming that has occurred since the end of the nineteenth century reversed a persistent long-term global cooling trend. The increase in average temperature between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries exceeded the temperature difference between all other consecutive centuries in eachregion, except Antarctica and South America."

So... you are "LMAO" about a link I made from 2006, all the while touting a paper from 2013 that references 2 from from the very paper I posted?!?!?!? The same proxy studies referenced in mine!!!!!! Unbelieveable...

• Very little confidence can be assigned to statements concerning the hemispheric mean or global mean surface temperature prior to about A.D. 900 because of sparse data coverage and because the uncertainties associated with proxy data and the methods used to analyze and combine them are larger than during more recent time periods.

Has any of that changed???
 
I don't know much about climate change and I'm just starting to read about it. If scientists agree almost unanimously that it's real, and the Republican electorate and leadership believe it's not real, then I know the scientists are right :)

So, what is the scientific evidence for climate change?

sum-up-inigo-montoya.jpg


We're putting CO2 into the atmosphere - a known GHG. We know it's causing the rise in atmospheric CO2 because it's chemically different from natural CO2 and we can measure the ratio between them. The earth's atmosphere is indisputably warming. None...NONE...of the natural forcers we know of can account for the warming. In fact, if we just consider the natural factors, the Earth should be cooling very slightly. The only known factor that can account for the warming seen over the past 150 years is anthropogenic CO2.
 
1.) Is climate change real?

Yes. But beware the generalizations made around this term.
'Climate change' as a whole is something that's gone on during the entire age of the Earth. Virtually NO ONE disputes that the Earth's climate has varied dramatically during that time, and at different times, there have been different drivers of climate. SOME of those paleoclimate drivers are irrelevant to today's climate and Earth's climate equilibrium. But others are VERY relevant. In fact, a recent paper (can't recall the link right now) examined old rock formations and found that major volcanic eruptions many hundred million years ago released CO2 on levels on par with what we are doing today (only those eruptions lasted several thousand years). The runup in CO2 concentrations caused one of the largest mass-extinction events ever documented. So, we absolutely have evidence of climate change INCLUDING climate change caused by CO2 level variation.

2.) Are humans causing it?

The best evidence at hand indicates that the past 150 years (and perhaps even the past few thousand) have been influenced by humans. Deforestation and land-use variations were the possible drivers prior to the industrial age. (Ruddiman, 2003) http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Ruddiman2003.pdf

The greenhouse effect and its understanding is a concept >100 years old (pre-dates Einstein's Theory of Relativity by about 10 years!). So, we absolutely have an understanding of how greenhouse gases and CO2 can impact the climate, and the temperature of the Earth).

Presently, there is NO 'natural' forcing (e.g. solar output, volcanic activity, gamma rays, etc) that explains the warming over the past 100-150 years. Earth has a simply MASSIVE specific heat, and to warm the entire planet up or down, you need a major change in the amount of heat flux gained or lost - it cannot simply change temperature on its own without some driving mechanism or force; much like your car cannot just start moving from rest without some force acting on it - be that gravity, wind, you pushing it, etc.

We DO know, unequivocally, that CO2 levels have jumped from 280 ppm (pre-industrial) to >400 ppm now. And we KNOW that this DOES create an imbalance in the heat re-radiated back into space (the greenhouse effect). We also know that the C in the CO2 from fossil fuels has a different isotope ratio than 'natural' carbon already in the environmental cycle. So, it is a virtual certainty that the CO2 concentration change is entirely due to us, NOT volcanic. In fact, humans emit >100x the amount of CO2 EACH YEAR than all terrestrial and sub-marine volcanoes, combined - OUR output dwarfs one of the natural sources of sub-terrestrial or sequestered carbon.

All that put together, combined with computer models, makes a very strong case (>95% certain) that our CO2 emissions are causing the current warming. And the rate with which warming is occurring is faster than about anything else in the paleoclimate record.

Worse, all the CO2 causes ocean acidification, which is the ugly stepsister of global warming. It is already causing problems for ocean organisms which need calcium carbonate shells to survive - and the bad news is that many of them are food staples at the bottom of the ocean food-chain. That means too much CO2 has the potential to wipe out lots of ocean food sources if things get too acidic.

3.) What are your scientific qualifications?

I have undergraduate mathematics and physics majors, so I have a good understanding of both the physics mechanisms as well as statistical analysis.
I also have a PhD in biomedical engineering and have done quite a bit of basic science (and product work) in medical device development. I have about a dozen and a half patents (assigned to various companies) and a few published articles (including a few unpublished works that were submitted or intended for publication until company priorities left them as 'orphans'). I've presented papers at a few medical conferences over the years as well.

I have followed climate science for probably a decade now, and have been rather astounded at many of the (woefully unscientific) assertions made on the GOP side. Politically, I am very free-market oriented and economically conservative. And it really bothers me that Republicans have turned their backs on the actual science and taken themselves out of the discussion in crafting and proposing solutions. We do NOT want a bunch of over-arching regulations 'solving' the emissions problems, we absolutely need something like Cap & Trade (OR a revenue-neutral carbon tax) coupled with WTO treaties to penalize non-participants and violators. And IMO, getting the USA on clean energy as fast as possible would put us in a great position to bring clean-energy driven production and manufacturing back here - countries that stay on fossil fuels and incur a tariff penalty would price themselves out of a properly crafted clean energy market. Some may call that solution of a tariff or tax 'anti-free market', but by ignoring the impacts that CO2 emissions are going to have long-term on our planet, we are actually subsidizing fossil fuels by giving them a 'pass'. And that isn't a 'free market', either, when the overall cost of a pollutant is ignored as part of the cost of the energy.

The additional 'upside' is that elimination of fossil fuels will ultimately require countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran to change their ways - they will not have recoverable resources for their economies to rely on in a world powered by non-fossil fuels. That means they pretty much must join the ranks of the modern western world, or they go back to the Stone Age. Our Navy won't need to place policeman in a Persian Gulf where we don't care about oil exports/imports. Shutting off the oil spigots for Saudi Arabia means the Wahhabi version of Islam won't be getting any more money from the sales of oil, either. FWIW....the Saudis were one of the main countries trying to de-rail the last round of climate talks, so the GOP has THAT in common with their position....

There are many long-term 'upsides' to clean energy than just reducing fossil fuel pollution.
 
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So... you are "LMAO" about a link I made from 2006, all the while touting a paper from 2013 that references 2 from from the very paper I posted?!?!?!? The same proxy studies referenced in mine!!!!!! Unbelieveable...

• Very little confidence can be assigned to statements concerning the hemispheric mean or global mean surface temperature prior to about A.D. 900 because of sparse data coverage and because the uncertainties associated with proxy data and the methods used to analyze and combine them are larger than during more recent time periods.

Has any of that changed???

Yep. Because they used a LOT more sources and data to develop their conclusions. That's why it was dated AFTER your source (and probably utilizes about a decade's worth of additional info).

Same reason why we don't try to use Newton's Principia to undermine Einstein's relativity theory.....not sure why this is so difficult for you.
 
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That was interesting information delivered in a respectful concise manner and I will use it to reconsider my positions.

an HROT first?
 
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• Very little confidence can be assigned to statements concerning the hemispheric mean or global mean surface temperature prior to about A.D. 900 because of sparse data coverage and because the uncertainties associated with proxy data and the methods used to analyze and combine them are larger than during more recent time periods.

Has any of that changed???

You'll just have to go read the PAGES2K stuff. I cannot babysit you here anymore.

This is how science works - you assemble NEW information to CHANGE prior assertions and hypotheses.
Apparently, when that new information violates your Sacred Cow of GOP disinformation, you simply disregard it, and go back to the old datasets.....
 
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The problem is, the OP asked about the science behind GW, and that's what most of us have tried to address. Your problem is that the science doesn't match what you would like, and does match what your political opponents are saying; and so you flail at the media and the politics of the issue instead of the science.

No, I'm flailing at the predictions of "catastrophic" climate change. There will be nothing catastrophic about it. It will be a slow, gradual process that's easily managed, and there will also be winners as well as losers (like there always is). The science should be used to mitigate and adopt, because we're not going to stop "change." It should not be used to radically alter economies and transfer wealth from rich nations to developing ones because "we caused it." That's where the horse squeeze lies on this issue.
 
Why does anything else matter? If we are at all contributing to the warming in a measurable way in such a short historical time frame, and that warming could by all accounts have painful or apocalyptic ramifications, why does anything else matter? We would have already established the need to take action.

I might be missing something, but isn't the only reason we would ever decide to do nothing because we conclude that we are not affecting the climate and couldn't even if we wanted to?

Who ever said "do nothing"? Good grief, it's all or nothing with you people.
 
We know it's causing the rise in atmospheric CO2 because it's chemically different from natural CO2 and we can measure the ratio between them.

There are different kinds of CO2? One molecule with a carbon atom and two oxygen atoms can be chemically different from another molecule with one carbon atom and two oxygen atoms?

Explain, please.
 
Joe,

Where'd you get your BS and PhD? Just curious.

I visited East Ukraine in 2011 and was on the river Dnepr. There were 3 huge factories that poured brown smoke into the air 24/7. The air around the area was brown. That was only 3 factories on a planet with thousands.

I was wondering how humans could NOT be having a huge change on the atmosphere,
 
There are different kinds of CO2? One molecule with a carbon atom and two oxygen atoms can be chemically different from another molecule with one carbon atom and two oxygen atoms?

Explain, please.

Sequestered carbon produces
CO2 with a different carbon isotope ratio than terrestrial CO2.

You can observe directly how the atmospheric carbon isotope ratio changes as more of the stuff that's been underground for many millions of years is added to the terrestrial CO2.
 
Sequestered carbon produces
CO2 with a different carbon isotope ratio than terrestrial CO2.

You can observe directly how the atmospheric carbon isotope ratio changes as more of the stuff that's been underground for many millions of years is added to the terrestrial CO2.


So how do we differentiate fossil fuel isotopes from volcanic eruption isotopes? Aren't they both spewing previously-sequestered CO2?
 
What should this be teaching me?
I'm just eye-balling it but a couple of things pop out.

Nowhere in the world under 390 ppm CO2. Some places appear to be up to 409 ppm. While there is some arbitrariness and imprecision to the numbers, the consensus used to be that above 350 and at least some global warming was inevitable. We hit 400 a couple of years ago and now the global average appears to be around 405.

The other thing I find interesting to note is the big difference between the northern and southern hemispheres. More land mass, more industry, more population up north. So not particularly hard to figure. So I'm not surprised to find some difference. But I am a little surprised at the magnitude of difference and the extent to which the convection currents seem to prevent north and south from mixing more.

I wonder how many years of safety you could buy by moving to, say, New Zealand's South Island. Not that they would let us in.
 
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I'm just eye-balling it but a coupe of things pop out.

Nowhere in the world under 390 ppm CO2. Some places appear to be up to 409 ppm. While there is some arbitrariness and imprecision to the numbers, the consensus used to be that above 350 and at least some global warming was inevitable. We hit 400 a couple of years ago and now the global average appears to be around 405.

The other thing I find interesting to note is the big difference between the northern and southern hemispheres. More land mass, more industry, more population up north. So not particularly hard to figure. So I'm not surprised to find some difference. But I am a little surprised at the magnitude of difference and the extent to which the convection currents seem to prevent north and south from mixing more.

I wonder how many years of safety you could buy by moving to, say, New Zealand's South Island.
I bet we could buy interior land in Australia cheap. Maybe run a scam selling bunker space there? We could get the libs and cons to buy into that for different reasons.
 
Because...the...article...is...about...the...carbon...isotopes...released...by...burning...living...and...once...living...things. Like...plants.

Outside of the occasional virgin, the carbon released by volcanoes isn't from once-living things.

What's it from?

I would imagine that the carbon emissions from a volcano are from burning carbon that was sequestered millions of years ago in the subduction zone of said volcano.

No?
 
Yep. Because they used a LOT more sources and data to develop their conclusions. That's why it was dated AFTER your source (and probably utilizes about a decade's worth of additional info).

Same reason why we don't try to use Newton's Principia to undermine Einstein's relativity theory.....not sure why this is so difficult for you.

You'll just have to go read the PAGES2K stuff. I cannot babysit you here anymore.

This is how science works - you assemble NEW information to CHANGE prior assertions and hypotheses.
Apparently, when that new information violates your Sacred Cow of GOP disinformation, you simply disregard it, and go back to the old datasets.....

Once again you chose to fvcking outright lie instead of admitting that very big assumptions are being made.

From the very website of your holy grail...

What are the main limitations of the study?
The temperature reconstructions are based on inferences made from natural archives that store information about past climate (such as tree rings), but are not thermometers per se. Translating proxy evidence to past temperatures involves making important assumptions. For instance, we assume that the relation between temperature and the proxy record that existed during the instrumental period is the same as that which existed during pre-historic time.

Large uncertainties about past temperature variability remain, especially during the first millennium when only some regions are represented. In Africa, there are currently too few records to make a reliable continental-scale temperature reconstruction.

Some of the reconstructions focus on summer conditions and others on annual averages. The two can be somewhat different, although they are correlated in meteorological records from our regions.

How were uncertainties accounted for in the temperature reconstructions?
Measuring proxy values, placing them on a timescale, integrating records from unevenly distributed sites, and converting them to temperature all involve uncertainties. Each of the PAGES 2k Network groups used somewhat different approaches to estimate the uncertainty in the reconstructed temperature (as described in the Supplementary Information). The synthesis does not formally address these uncertainties, focusing instead primarily on the best (expected-value) estimates of temperature. In addition, some of the analyses circumvent most sources of uncertainty. For example, the site-level analysis of individual records assumes only that the proxies are sensitive to temperature.

 
PAGES%202k%20temperature%20grid.jpeg

You see? Africa isn't even represented... How it it possible it say that the "Global Temperature" has been anything other that "trending" in the time frame before direct observed and recorded data?? i.e 186 years.......
 
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