When Trucks No Longer Need Drivers

[dandh]

I've been reading about autonomous vehicles quite a bit lately. I really look forward to having a car that will take me places, so I can nap, watch movies, eat, and do all sorts of other fun things while "driving". However, I think it will have a huge impact on our economy, especially in the form of a drastic reduction in the number of truck drivers and the people who support them.

One article I read said that one in twelve jobs in the state of Nebraska is in the trucking or related industries, from truck-stop waitresses to people who make tacky gear to sell in truck stops. That also includes the truck drivers themselves, who will rapidly become a dying breed once automated trucks are a reality. That article predicted the degradation of small towns near the interstate highways as a result.

There will also be some good jobs created from this, many in the tech sector, to produce and repair the mechanisms needed to make automated trucks a reality. Still, I think it will cut a large number of jobs that do not require a high level of formal education, many of which are well-paying jobs.

I'm not sure how this will work in the long run, but I think we'll find a way to make it work for everyone. However, there will be a period of major disruption in this area, and it will be happening soon - within the next 10-20 years. It will be interesting to see how we get through it.

 

[Huey Grey]

It's already happened. Automation has killed a lot of jobs. Last summer, I took a tour of the New Belgium Brewery in Fort Collins, CO and during the tour, they took you to a second level room with a bank of windows overlooking the bottling floor. I expected to see people down there overlooking the process: inspecting bottles, driving around pallets, packaging up six-packs. But there wasn't a single soul down there. Not even one guy in a white lab coat and clipboard. Everything was automated.

I'm not sure when autonomous vehicles will become widespread, but it looks like they're coming. And when they do, an awfully lot of people will have to find other work.

 

[TJ8869]

Even if the truck does some/most/all of the navigation, wouldn't you still need a guy in the truck in case there is a situation requiring human intervention? It seems kind of unrealistic to load up a truck with hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of merchandise in Rockford and send it off to Chattanooga by itself.

 

[B1GDeal]

Automated truck will likely still need a human inside as a fail safe... at least until several generations of these vehicles have been on the road and prove to be safe. Also, once totally automated they cannot refuel themselves, so this will create full-service station jobs again to have someone do this for the trucks.

 

[Huey Grey]

Even if the truck does some/most/all of the navigation, wouldn't you still need a guy in the truck in case there is a situation requiring human intervention? It seems kind of unrealistic to load up a truck with hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of merchandise in Rockford and send it off to Chattanooga by itself.

You would think so, but maybe not. I could see a Triple A-like setup taking care of this. If there are any problems, the truck pulls over, shuts down, and a human will come out to take care of it.

 

[Huey Grey]

Automated truck will likely still need a human inside as a fail safe... at least until several generations of these vehicles have been on the road and prove to be safe. Also, once totally automated they cannot refuel themselves, so this will create full-service station jobs again to have someone do this for the trucks.

I don't see any reason why they couldn't fuel themselves. If they can maneuver roads and loading docks, why not a fuel station? Certainly a robot could be built that can fuel trucks, no?

 

[Run&Blade]

What happens when a Walmart or target truck without a driver kills some kid because of a software glitch?

Given the size of the company that owns the vehicle I would imagine the lawsuit would be colossal.

I think we are a couple decades away. Cars first.

 

[TexMichFan]

Even if the truck does some/most/all of the navigation, wouldn't you still need a guy in the truck in case there is a situation requiring human intervention? It seems kind of unrealistic to load up a truck with hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of merchandise in Rockford and send it off to Chattanooga by itself.

That is why we are also building robots.

 

[naturalmwa]

Might want to get used to the idea of socialism. Star Trek society is coming.

 

[Huey Grey]

What happens when a Walmart or target truck without a driver kills some kid because of a software glitch?

Given the size of the company that owns the vehicle I would imagine the lawsuit would be colossal.

I think we are a couple decades away. Cars first.

I definitely agree with this. We are probably further away from this than many think. But once people become comfortable with no drivers, you will see the drivers evaporate away. Could take 50 years, but it will likely happen.

 

[BrentJDiekman]

What happens when a Walmart or target truck without a driver kills some kid because of a software glitch?

Given the size of the company that owns the vehicle I would imagine the lawsuit would be colossal.

I think we are a couple decades away. Cars first.

Yup, the liability argument comes up frequently. Who's responsible? The owner? The manufacturer? The software company?

 

[Huey Grey]

Yup, the liability argument comes up frequently. Who's responsible? The owner? The manufacturer? The software company?

Jesus.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

What happens when a Walmart or target truck without a driver kills some kid because of a software glitch?

Given the size of the company that owns the vehicle I would imagine the lawsuit would be colossal.

I think we are a couple decades away. Cars first.

Probably sooner than you think.

Unions would demand a human presence but private sector unions are moribund and this would be depicted as the modern equivalent of requiring firemen on electric trains.

The high tech components that could create new jobs will mostly be offshored and will eventually be automated. Even high-tech parts will be simple plug-and-play modules that any schmuck or robot can swap out.

As I have been saying for a while, this is our future. We can make it hell - if you can't find a job you are a lazy bum and deserve to suffer - or we can recognize reality and come up with a better plan.

We are already experiencing the leading edge of this wave. It will only get worse. One party has decided to bet its future on touting Puritan values. The other party is mostly clueless, but is also supporting trade rules that will accelerate a race to the bottom for most of humanity.

Meanwhile, look at the debates here and elsewhere on the web or Fox or talk radio. Idiots saying there are plenty of jobs, we don't need a minimum wage or welfare, or a decent public education system, and on and on. That with unemployment under 6%. Wait until more and more jobs simply don't require humans any more.

What's cool is that all those unemployed and undermployed folks who are struggling without a meaningful safety net and have no hopes for the future are also well-armed.

America (and the world) could get very interesting.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Yup, the liability argument comes up frequently. Who's responsible? The owner? The manufacturer? The software company?

There will be liability caps. ALEC probably already has the legislation written.

Problem solved.

 

[linkshero]

I look forward to the day when commercial trucking has a guy strapped to the front with a flame shooting guitar and a shit ton of amps.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I look forward to the day when commercial trucking has a guy strapped to the front with a flame shooting guitar and a shit ton of amps.

I believe there's a documentary on this that just came out. People say it's good.

 

[Run&Blade]

Society is heading towards a time when we simply don't need many people to work.

What to do about it is a very interesting subject.

Pay people not to work? Sharing a job? Any option will need to include a model where many things are free, healthcare for example.

 

[Pepperman]

Probably sooner than you think.

Unions would demand a human presence but private sector unions are moribund and this would be depicted as the modern equivalent of requiring firemen on electric trains.

The high tech components that could create new jobs will mostly be offshored and will eventually be automated. Even high-tech parts will be simple plug-and-play modules that any schmuck or robot can swap out.

As I have been saying for a while, this is our future. We can make it hell - if you can't find a job you are a lazy bum and deserve to suffer - or we can recognize reality and come up with a better plan.

We are already experiencing the leading edge of this wave. It will only get worse. One party has decided to bet its future on touting Puritan values. The other party is mostly clueless, but is also supporting trade rules that will accelerate a race to the bottom for most of humanity.

Meanwhile, look at the debates here and elsewhere on the web or Fox or talk radio. Idiots saying there are plenty of jobs, we don't need a minimum wage or welfare, or a decent public education system, and on and on. That with unemployment under 6%. Wait until more and more jobs simply don't require humans any more.

What's cool is that all those unemployed and undermployed folks who are struggling without a meaningful safety net and have no hopes for the future are also well-armed.

America (and the world) could get very interesting.

Do you think tractors, combines, and other farming equipment killed this country?

What about the automobile? Aircraft? Computer (this ought to be rich)?

You are too smart to be so dumb, seriously.

 

[INXS83]

What happens when a Walmart or target truck without a driver kills some kid because of a software glitch?

Given the size of the company that owns the vehicle I would imagine the lawsuit would be colossal.

I think we are a couple decades away. Cars first.

Precisely!

Even the developers of driverless cars admit legal hurdles, acceptance and implementation is years away. Trucks will take even longer due to the size, weight, complexity and increased inherent danger. It will all come down to preventing accidents, lawsuits and litigation.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Society is heading towards a time when we simply don't need many people to work.

What to do about it is a very interesting subject.

Pay people not to work? Sharing a job? Any option will need to include a model where many things are free, healthcare for example.

Yep.

Job sharing is a particularly good approach. Yet there is surprising resistance to it. And it raises "living wage" issues.

Many of us talk about pegging the minimum wage to a living wage. The idea being that someone who works 40 hours per week ought to be able to support himself and maybe one kid on what he earns, under ordinary circumstances. Seems pretty reasonable.

But suppose many jobs undergo a 2:3 split. So now the typical work week becomes 27 hours or so. Should the MW be bumped up so that 27 hours of work earns enough for that small family to live on? I'd say yes, but imagine the pushback.

The problem is that if you don't raise the MW that way, instead of freeing jobs so more people can work, you may just create a situation where more people have to find a 2nd job. That's not going to help very much.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Do you think tractors, combines, and other farming equipment killed this country?

What about the automobile? Aircraft? Computer (this ought to be rich)?

You are too smart to be so dumb, seriously.

The assumption that past is prologue is confusing you.

Recent history says most of our new jobs are in the service and financial sectors. Not producing anything.

Will there be new tech and manufacturing jobs? Sure.

A lot of them? Who knows? Maybe. Or maybe most will be automated.

Will those jobs be here in the US? Possible, but doubtful.

If they are, how many will pay well? Probably not many. Why should they?

I like to be optimistic, too. But being a Pollyanna is tough in the face of facts and rational analysis.

 

[Pepperman]

The assumption that past is prologue is confusing you.

Recent history says most of our new jobs are in the service and financial sectors. Not producing anything.

Will there be new tech and manufacturing jobs? Sure.

A lot of them? Who knows? Maybe. Or maybe most will be automated.

Will those jobs be here in the US? Possible, but doubtful.

If they are, how many will pay well? Probably not many. Why should they?

I like to be optimistic, too. But being a Pollyanna is tough in the face of facts and rational analysis.

The key is to keep the USA innovative. This requires low taxes, rewarding entrepreneurial spirits, educating our population in math & science, and maintaining socially-liberal attitudes towards art (movies, theatre, music, etc).

 

[dandh]

Just say "fap." We know that's what you're getting at anyway.

Lol, flick. Actually, if there's another party in the car with you, there's no reason to limit yourself to solitary activity, is there?

 

[dandh]

Probably sooner than you think.

Unions would demand a human presence but private sector unions are moribund and this would be depicted as the modern equivalent of requiring firemen on electric trains.

Featherbedding is an unfair labor practice, so that's not very likely, imo.

 

[lucas80]

Freightliner is testing a driverless truck outside of Las Vegas. They think they are at least 10 years away from a workable prototype to hit the roads. I heard a story on NPR about this.
The fueling issue is simple. They could go from terminal to terminal where the trailers are swapped out, a truck with a looming fault code is replaced, or a refueling is needed.
What will hold up the process is America is filled with millions of manufacturers and consumer pick up and delivery points, with thousands of trucking companies. The US is also a bit more rogue than Europe where centralization is more accepted.
But, driverless trucks are coming. They don't get hurt on the job, need to sleep or stop to pee. They don't need to be paid, have health insurance or a retirement plan.

 

[Nat Algren]

Here's a video of a farm tractor approx. 1 minute into video w/o a driver.
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2015/05/how-robots-will-change-world.html

Google has self-driving cars doing about 25 mph.
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2015/05/google-will-start-testing-25-self.html

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

The key is to keep the USA innovative. This requires low taxes, rewarding entrepreneurial spirits, educating our population in math & science, and maintaining socially-liberal attitudes towards art (movies, theatre, music, etc).

Did you leave out a "not" somewhere in that sentence?

Most innovation comes from creative people who are not doing it for the tax breaks or even to get rich. The belief expressed in the first part of your statement is simply that: belief. It's part of the neoliberal dogma.

 

[Hawkeye009]

This is just one tiny example of the incredible shift that our society is facing. Technology allows for incredibly efficient markets and creates winner-take-all situations rather than distributions in a bell curve, and the money and opportunities in society will continue to siphon to fewer and fewer people over time (those who control the tech/data). The traditional mantra of getting an education and responding is going to be outdated. Technology will allow society to be so efficient that our contributions will simply no longer be needed. This started with manufacturing, retail, etc. and is quickly moving into fields like medicine and law. The question is what we will do with ourselves.

If you want one person's view on this, I recommend "Who Owns the Future" by Jaron Lanier.

 

[claykenny]

Do you think tractors, combines, and other farming equipment killed this country?

What about the automobile? Aircraft? Computer (this ought to be rich)?

You are too smart to be so dumb, seriously.

I would argue that greater efficiency and automation when it comes to farming has reduced the number of farmers required per acre of land and has hurt many small rural communities (fewer jobs, decreased population, etc.).

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

This is just one tiny example of the incredible shift that our society is facing. Technology allows for incredibly efficient markets and creates winner-take-all situations rather than distributions in a bell curve, and the money and opportunities in society will continue to siphon to fewer and fewer people over time (those who control the tech/data). The traditional mantra of getting an education and responding is going to be outdated. Technology will allow society to be so efficient that our contributions will simply no longer be needed. This started with manufacturing, retail, etc. and is quickly moving into fields like medicine and law. The question is what we will do with ourselves.

If you want one person's view on this, I recommend "Who Owns the Future" by Jaron Lanier.

Or go back 35-40 years to what Robert Anton Wilson said, such as

If there is one proposition which currently wins the assent of nearly everybody, it is that we need more jobs. "A cure for unemployment" is promised, or earnestly sought, by every Heavy Thinker from Jimmy Carter to the Communist Party USA, from Ronald Reagan to the head of the economics department at the local university, from the Birchers to the New Left.

I would like to challenge that idea. I don't think there is, or ever again can be, a cure for unemployment. I propose that unemployment is not a disease, but the natural, healthy functioning of an advanced technological society.

The inevitable direction of any technology, and of any rational species such as Homo sap., is toward what Buckminster Fuller calls ephemeralization, or doing-more-with-less. For instance, a modern computer does more (handles more bits of information) with less hardware than the proto-computers of the late '40's and '50's. One worker with a modern teletype machine does more in an hour than a thousand medieval monks painstakingly copying scrolls for a century. Atomic fission does more with a cubic centimeter of matter than all the engineers of the 19th Century could do with a million tons, and fusion does even more.

Aristotle said that slavery could only be abolished when machines were built that could operate themselves. Working for wages, the modern equivalent of slavery -- very accurately called "wage slavery" by social critics -- is in the process of being abolished by just such self-programming machines. In fact, Norbert Wiener, one of the creators of cybernetics, foresaw this as early as 1947 and warned that we would have massive unemployment once the computer revolution really got moving.

It is arguable, and I for one would argue, that the only reason Wiener's prediction has not totally been realized yet -- although we do have ever-increasing unemployment -- is that big unions, the corporations, and government have all tacitly agreed to slow down the pace of cybernation, to drag their feet and run the economy with the brakes on. This is because they all, still, regard unemployment as a "disease" and cannot imagine a "cure" for the nearly total unemployment that full cybernation will create.

Suppose, for a moment, we challenge this Calvinistic mind-set. Let us regard wage-work -- as most people do, in fact, regard it -- as a curse, a drag, a nuisance, a barrier that stands between us and what we really want to do. In that case, your job is the disease, and unemployment is the cure.

More here. Don't be scared off by the wingnutty-sounding title. Remember this was a long time ago.

 

[aflachawk]

I would argue that greater efficiency and automation when it comes to farming has reduced the number of farmers required per acre of land and has hurt many small rural communities (fewer jobs, decreased population, etc.).

Your point is not only arguable, it's indeed fact. It's helped depopulate two thirds of Iowa counties. It's going to get worse in rural Iowa also.

 

[Pepperman]

Your point is not only arguable, it's indeed fact. It's helped depopulate two thirds of Iowa counties. It's going to get worse in rural Iowa also.

In the grand scheme of things, that may not be a "bad" thing for mankind though. I grant you it isn't pleasant for those rural towns and the people trying to hang on there, but capitalism at its core is like a forest or mother nature. You need to have the occasional destruction in order for new life to begin and thrive.

 

[Huey Grey]

This is just one tiny example of the incredible shift that our society is facing. Technology allows for incredibly efficient markets and creates winner-take-all situations rather than distributions in a bell curve, and the money and opportunities in society will continue to siphon to fewer and fewer people over time (those who control the tech/data). The traditional mantra of getting an education and responding is going to be outdated. Technology will allow society to be so efficient that our contributions will simply no longer be needed. This started with manufacturing, retail, etc. and is quickly moving into fields like medicine and law. The question is what we will do with ourselves.

If you want one person's view on this, I recommend "Who Owns the Future" by Jaron Lanier.

Excellent points all around.

 

[lucas80]

I had the thought of what happens when a cop tries to pull over an automated truck with a light out, or a flat tire. Then I realized the cop will be an automaton, too.

 

[lou loomis]

I had the thought of what happens when a cop tries to pull over an automated truck with a light out, or a flat tire. Then I realized the cop will be an automaton, too.

What happens if these A.I. trucks start fighting back against police because they feel like they are being unfairly profiled? Will we see more cop-on-truck violence? Will we see trucks marching on Washington hand-in-hand with outraged citizens? A.I. truck lives matter.

What if the A.I. trucks go full Maximum Overdrive? How do you get trucks that are that far gone to re-integrate with regular trucks and people alike? What if SkyNet becomes self-aware?

These are all questions that need to be answered before I'm on board with A.I. trucks.