Where and maybe how much improvement in Iowa's passing game we will see

[TheHawkeyeDudeAbides]

Granted, Iowa will be a run first club as long as a Ferentz runs this offense calls. This will not change. I do expect that Iowa could string together longer productive drives if the passing game improves and the drops are cut down by at least a third. Iowa's OL and RB corps must muster up around 160 yards of rushing yards per game on about 35 rushing attempts per game (4.6 yards/attempt - Iowa average only 139 yards per contest last year). At around 175 rushing yards per game, a team is usually in the top 100 rushing offenses.

Personally, I believe Iowa can do this as Wirfs, Jackson and Render being more seasoned and surely Polasek will engineer some strengthening fit into the OL to make it more productive than last year. Young and IKM have the talent and some experience to make their presence known. Hopefully, Iowa can be 4 deep at RB spot when the season starts.

If the OL can protect Stanley better this year, I'd expect the pressure and speed of game will slow down for the young gunslinger and his sack numbers could be cut in half (from 22 last year). Stanley should be able to improve his completion rate from last year's 56% to over 62.5% (5 completions per 8 attempts). Again, this improvement should string along more productive drives. I'd be happy if Stanley could average 34 passing attempts a game (he averaged 28ppg last year). That would mean around 21+ (22) completions per game.

The breakdown of completions among the receiving corp could likely fall this way: (# predicted)

Nick Easley (great bonding teammate// VandeBerg's production) : 60 catches, 5/game, 6 TDs
Noah Fant (1st team AA TE, Mackey Award) 48 catches, 4/g, 12 TDs
TJ Hockerson (Capable #2 TE) 30 receptions, 2.5 /g, 5 TDs
IKM ( expended role with Wadley gone) 24 catches, 2/g, 4 TDs
ISM (potential to be a star/ difference maker) 42 catches, 3.5/game, 7 TDs (game changer)

I know the ISM prediction is out there but he could be special if he focuses his mind to his abilities. Iowa needs someone special at WR to signal to David Bell to come to Iowa. Easley will and Fant (most likely) will be done after next season.

Those top 5 receivers give Stanley about 17 receptions per game average and 34 TD passes.

Tracy, Cooper, B. Smith, Groeneweg, Ragaini, Beyer and Cook should get their share of opportunities to surprise us (fans). Brandon Smith could be the biggest improvement aside ISM. Hoping Ragaini is able to contribute this year. Tracy is a potential wildcard. I don't see Evans or Lockett in the mix for a year.

Sorry, if I bored anyone but I had to do something today as I am home with my leg propped up after being at the ER to get a hematoma opened to drain blood and fluid build up. Feeling better. Go Hawks!

 

[mazda1]

I don't see better protection for Stanley with Daniels and Welsh gone. B. Smith looks like Tarzan, catches like Jane. If we can get Nate to connect on a few more open deep passes and everything else is equal to ly I'll be satisfied. To expect much more is very wishful thinking in my view. Wideouts drop too many balls and separation is a new concept to most of them.

Our running game and limiting the number of big plays given up on defense will determine our wins and losses.

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

If the passing game does not improve drastically we will be looking for a new OCord next spring. In a performance based position you cannot perform worse than the guy you replaced, who was ran out of town, and expect to keep your job. I personally think we will see a great improvement.

 

[BlackNGoldBleeder]

If the passing game does not improve drastically we will be looking for a new OCord next spring. In a performance based position you cannot perform worse than the guy you replaced, who was ran out of town, and expect to keep your job. I personally think we will see a great improvement.

I don't disagree with you, but you really think father would fire son? I think the offense will be improved as well but Kirk will resign before he throws Brian under the bus.

 

[BlackNGoldBleeder]

Conventional wisdom would say the offense should improve. IMO, they have to make the TEs a priority. Will open up the deep ball and running game.

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

I don't disagree with you, but you really think father would fire son? I think the offense will be improved as well but Kirk will resign before he throws Brian under the bus.

So again I dont think this happens because I think Brian figures out a way to be a "middle of the pack".(I'm not talking about offense efficiency I'm talking about all statistics) but if it does go to seed I think.

Barta gets shown the door. The new AD starts shopping. The staff get 1 more year most likely to allow the AD to eval but again the ad is shopping. If they stay in the bottom 1/3 of the stats, the whole thing gets blown up. (Thisnis very abbreviated I'm getting the side eye from wifey)

 

[Harbinger273]

I'd like to think we make some improvement with the WR's and could even see improvement from the TE group. I do not have high hopes to see a lethal air attack that can pass at will. No surprise there. If We could just get 5 more tds and 500 more yards out of the WR's that would be swell. Anything more is icing on the cake.

 

[grayhair81]

Granted, Iowa will be a run first club as long as a Ferentz runs this offense calls. This will not change. I do expect that Iowa could string together longer productive drives if the passing game improves and the drops are cut down by at least a third. Iowa's OL and RB corps must muster up around 160 yards of rushing yards per game on about 35 rushing attempts per game (4.6 yards/attempt - Iowa average only 139 yards per contest last year). At around 175 rushing yards per game, a team is usually in the top 100 rushing offenses.

Personally, I believe Iowa can do this as Wirfs, Jackson and Render being more seasoned and surely Polasek will engineer some strengthening fit into the OL to make it more productive than last year. Young and IKM have the talent and some experience to make their presence known. Hopefully, Iowa can be 4 deep at RB spot when the season starts.

If the OL can protect Stanley better this year, I'd expect the pressure and speed of game will slow down for the young gunslinger and his sack numbers could be cut in half (from 22 last year). Stanley should be able to improve his completion rate from last year's 56% to over 62.5% (5 completions per 8 attempts). Again, this improvement should string along more productive drives. I'd be happy if Stanley could average 34 passing attempts a game (he averaged 28ppg last year). That would mean around 21+ (22) completions per game.

The breakdown of completions among the receiving corp could likely fall this way: (# predicted)

Nick Easley (great bonding teammate// VandeBerg's production) : 60 catches, 5/game, 6 TDs
Noah Fant (1st team AA TE, Mackey Award) 48 catches, 4/g, 12 TDs
TJ Hockerson (Capable #2 TE) 30 receptions, 2.5 /g, 5 TDs
IKM ( expended role with Wadley gone) 24 catches, 2/g, 4 TDs
ISM (potential to be a star/ difference maker) 42 catches, 3.5/game, 7 TDs (game changer)

I know the ISM prediction is out there but he could be special if he focuses his mind to his abilities. Iowa needs someone special at WR to signal to David Bell to come to Iowa. Easley will and Fant (most likely) will be done after next season.

Those top 5 receivers give Stanley about 17 receptions per game average and 34 TD passes.

Tracy, Cooper, B. Smith, Groeneweg, Ragaini, Beyer and Cook should get their share of opportunities to surprise us (fans). Brandon Smith could be the biggest improvement aside ISM. Hoping Ragaini is able to contribute this year. Tracy is a potential wildcard. I don't see Evans or Lockett in the mix for a year.

Sorry, if I bored anyone but I had to do something today as I am home with my leg propped up after being at the ER to get a hematoma opened to drain blood and fluid build up. Feeling better. Go Hawks!

34 TD passes? I like your optimism. The most any Iowa QB has thrown for in a season is 26 (Long, Banks, and Stanley last year). 29 is the most for a team season total. I do think the passing game will be more reliable this year but it will be hard to top the 26 from last year. If they can manage 20 rushing TDs and 2 FG per game, they will score 400 points. That would equal a pretty memorable season.

 

[nu2u]

If the passing game does not improve drastically we will be looking for a new OCord next spring

Comedy. You should stick to posting recruiting profiles.

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

I think the tell tale stat will be completion percentage.

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

Comedy. You should stick to posting recruiting profiles.

Even the most ardent "dont rock the boaters" cant deny facts. The program got very long in the tooth and some changes were made. If those changes dont pan out it's time for an overhaul.

 

[desihawk]

OP, nice post. Some thoughts --
I'm not sure Fant will match your projections. For one, he was already the best (?) pass catching te in cfb with last year's stats and merely repeating that will be a challenge in the face of special attention Ds will accord him this year.
ISM is the wild card. If he makes the leap, it not only gets Stanleys stats pop, it will make the running game that much more effective.
So even if Stanley doesn't meet the lofty TD expectations, IvoTor could make up the difference.

 

[Zildjian6868]

My only hope is that we are more productive on first down. It is imperative with a Ferentz run offense. On the games we won last year Stanely was really efficient on first down.

 

[Harbinger273]

OP, nice post. Some thoughts --
I'm not sure Fant will match your projections. For one, he was already the best (?) pass catching te in cfb with last year's stats and merely repeating that will be a challenge in the face of special attention Ds will accord him this year.
ISM is the wild card. If he makes the leap, it not only gets Stanleys stats pop, it will make the running game that much more effective.
So even if Stanley doesn't meet the lofty TD expectations, IvoTor could make up the difference.

IvoTor... Like the new term for our soon to be beast mode running backs! I think the 2 will exceed expectations as long as our OL Gels and we get marginal improvement from our receivers. 1st down will be key.

 

[BlackNGoldBleeder]

So again I dont think this happens because I think Brian figures out a way to be a "middle of the pack".(I'm not talking about offense efficiency I'm talking about all statistics) but if it does go to seed I think.

Barta gets shown the door. The new AD starts shopping. The staff get 1 more year most likely to allow the AD to eval but again the ad is shopping. If they stay in the bottom 1/3 of the stats, the whole thing gets blown up. (Thisnis very abbreviated I'm getting the side eye from wifey)

I'm not disputing any of that. But as it stands right now Kirk is in charge of hiring and firing his staff. Again, I believe the offense will be improved, and the point is moot, but in the unlikely event Iowa offensively is in the position you described Brian Ferentz will not be fired.

I do, however, like where your head is at as far as showing Gary Barta the door is concerned.

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

Check out @marcmorehouse’s Tweet:

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

I'm not disputing any of that. But as it stands right now Kirk is in charge of hiring and firing his staff. Again, I believe the offense will be improved, and the point is moot, but in the unlikely event Iowa offensively is in the position you described Brian Ferentz will not be fired.

I do, however, like where your head is at as far as showing Gary Barta the door is concerned.

Barta would have to be the first Domino. I think we manage a "good" offense with somewhere right around the same passing TD's but WAY more yards and more rushing TD's. Combine that with a tough Defense and we are looking at 10-2ish. (Everyone keeps their job)

 

[Slappy Pappy]

It's really all about the long ball. If we regularly air it out, and Stanley finally starts hitting guys 30 yards downfield, watch out!

 

[deanhawk88]

I think the tell tale stat will be completion percentage.

This. Get into the 60% plus area and 1 addition yard per attempt. Seems one really good wr could easily add that and then some.

 

[hawkeye1944]

So again I dont think this happens because I think Brian figures out a way to be a "middle of the pack".(I'm not talking about offense efficiency I'm talking about all statistics) but if it does go to seed I think.

Barta gets shown the door. The new AD starts shopping. The staff get 1 more year most likely to allow the AD to eval but again the ad is shopping. If they stay in the bottom 1/3 of the stats, the whole thing gets blown up. (Thisnis very abbreviated I'm getting the side eye from wifey)

You sound like the local weather man. " I dont think this happens because I think Brian figures out." This covers 50% chance of it being sunny."Barta gets shown the door." This covers it's going to rain. So you're going to be 50% right which you predicted either way. Great post?

 

[hawkeye1944]

Even the most ardent "dont rock the boaters" cant deny facts. The program got very long in the tooth and some changes were made. If those changes dont pan out it's time for an overhaul.

Do you know how long a contract Kirk has left? And how long he's been there...I think you are just looking for someone to comment on your post...

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

You sound like the local weather man. " I dont think this happens because I think Brian figures out." This covers 50% chance of it being sunny."Barta gets shown the door." This covers it's going to rain. So you're going to be 50% right which you predicted either way. Great post?

If you want some percentages try this.

I think there is a greater than 75% chance that Brian improves the offense into the 50th percentile( or better) range of offenses and this is a moot point. However, if Brian is not able to get an offense into or above the 50th percentile I think there is a 100% chance Gary Barta gets fired. (The dude has done nothing of merit, seriously, and Barta fatigue is being felt by everyone who doesnt collect a paycheck from him) Should GB get fired a new AD is going to want to bring in "their guy", like all AD's. This transition will happen quickly by Iowa standards so it is likely the football staff will remain until after 2019. At that time the new AD is more than 90% likely to blow the whole thing up, pending a miracle season in 2019.

That make you feel better about the forecast?

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

Do you know how long a contract Kirk has left? And how long he's been there...I think you are just looking for someone to comment on your post...

The contract is the biggest pos scapegoat that can be brought up. The university is in the top 25 most profitable and if the time should come there is plenty of money. If they can drop 3 mill or whatever it was because Gary cant do paperwork correctly they can pay a coach out. They just made 50 mil in tv money. Excuses are like a holes. Seriously the buy out is such a bull%hit excuse and it might be reason #1 GB's head rolls first. There is too much money lost in running a non competitive, non entertaining, program. You can call them student athletes all you want but CFB is the entertainment buisness.

 

[Hwk-I-St8]

The contract is the biggest pos scapegoat that can be brought up. The university is in the top 25 most profitable and if the time should come there is plenty of money. If they can drop 3 mill or whatever it was because Gary cant do paperwork correctly they can pay a coach out. They just made 50 mil in tv money. Excuses are like a holes. Seriously the buy out is such a bull%hit excuse and it might be reason #1 GB's head rolls first. There is too much money lost in running a non competitive, non entertaining, program. You can call them student athletes all you want but CFB is the entertainment buisness.

Of course this is all your opinion. You don't get to make these decisions, so a buck and your opinion will get you a cup of coffee. Yawn.

 

[paladinhawk]

If the passing game does not improve drastically we will be looking for a new OCord next spring. In a performance based position you cannot perform worse than the guy you replaced, who was ran out of town, and expect to keep your job. I personally think we will see a great improvement.

Greg Davis was at Iowa for 5 years. The "ran out of town" comment is typical internet hyperbole - who was clamoring for him to be retained?

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

Of course this is all your opinion. You don't get to make these decisions, so a buck and your opinion will get you a cup of coffee. Yawn.

It's not my opinion that the U of I athletic Dept is one of the top 25 in regards to money.

http://www.businessinsider.com/schools-most-revenue-college-sports-2016-10

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

Greg Davis was at Iowa for 5 years. The "ran out of town" comment is typical internet hyperbole - who was clamoring for him to be retained?

No one. That's the point. Ran out of town is in fact hyperbolic. The point still stands. If you perform worse than your predecessor your going to be in trouble.

 

[Hwk-I-St8]

It's not my opinion that the U of I athletic Dept is one of the top 25 in regards to money.

http://www.businessinsider.com/schools-most-revenue-college-sports-2016-10

I was talking about Barta being ousted. You say he'll be gone...I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

I was talking about Barta being ousted. You say he'll be gone...I'll believe it when I see it.

Fair enough. It would be interesting if there were some form of approval rating for ADs. The day will come when Barta is no longer the AD though.