Who to cheer for March 4th? Not very clear

[Ray Kinsella]

Ohio State at Penn State, 5:00, BTN
Purdue at Michigan State, 7:00, BTN

The different combinations produce different results, so it's not completely clear who to root for in one particular game.

If you assume Iowa will beat Northwestern on Saturday, you'll probably want Ohio State and Purdue to win tonight. That gives a 25% chance at a 3 seed and a 75% chance at a 4 seed.
If Penn State and Purdue both win, the 4 seed is a lock.
If Penn State and MSU both win, there's a 25% chance of a 3 seed (and a 25% chance of a 5 seed).
A OSU-MSU combination actually give the best chance at a 3 seed (37.5%), but still give a chance at a 5 seed (12.5%).

If Iowa loses to Northwestern, you still probably want Purdue to win tonight, but it would actually be better if Penn State beat Ohio State. A PSU victory would eliminate any chance for a 6-seed.

 

[SotaHawk87]

I would like to avoid Michigan State but its looking like Iowa will be a 4-5 no matter what which also more than likely means we play MSU.

Im pulling for Purdue though!

 

[IAHawkGrad2000]

I get the MSU/Purdue game is a toss-up, but why would OSU winning be helpful? Just to help our seeding in the NCCA since we have the tie breaker for the B10 tourney?

 

[Ray Kinsella]

Originally posted by IAHawkGrad2000:

I get the MSU/Purdue game is a toss-up, but why would OSU winning be helpful? Just to help our seeding in the NCCA since we have the tie breaker for the B10 tourney?

If Iowa ended up tied with Purdue, Iowa would lose the tiebreaker. But if Iowa finished tied with Purdue AND Ohio State, Iowa would benefit from its 2 victories over Ohio State.

 

[HawkAttackDial911]

Yep, that's correct. We need Ohio St. to keep winning both for our RPI and when computing the tie-breaker.

 

[td77]

Originally posted by SotaHawk87:
I would like to avoid Michigan State but its looking like Iowa will be a 4-5 no matter what which also more than likely means we play MSU.

Im pulling for Purdue though!

Yeah, too many oddities to pull out the 3 seed. I'll take the 4 seed and be happy that we can't run into another bad loss (assuming we beat NW). Cheering for an MSU loss tonight.

 

[Auger]

I'm rooting for MSU to finish 3rd while Iowa and Purdue finish 4th and 5th. Would love to have Purdue in the Qtrs with a healthy White.

 

[StormHawk42]

If Purdue wins their last two, we're the 4 against MSU as the 5. If MSU wins their last two, we're the 5 against Purdue as the 4 (assuming we beat NW and OSU doesn't beat Wisky).

 

[IAHawkGrad2000]

Originally posted by Ray Kinsella:

Originally posted by IAHawkGrad2000:


I get the MSU/Purdue game is a toss-up, but why would OSU winning be helpful? Just to help our seeding in the NCCA since we have the tie breaker for the B10 tourney?

If Iowa ended up tied with Purdue, Iowa would lose the tiebreaker. But if Iowa finished tied with Purdue AND Ohio State, Iowa would benefit from its 2 victories over Ohio State.

Really... did not know that. Well thats good because I'd like to think OSU can easily handle Penn St

 

[EpenesaEpenesa]

Originally posted by IAHawkGrad2000:

Originally posted by Ray Kinsella:

Originally posted by IAHawkGrad2000:


I get the MSU/Purdue game is a toss-up, but why would OSU winning be helpful? Just to help our seeding in the NCCA since we have the tie breaker for the B10 tourney?

If Iowa ended up tied with Purdue, Iowa would lose the tiebreaker. But if Iowa finished tied with Purdue AND Ohio State, Iowa would benefit from its 2 victories over Ohio State.

Really... did not know that. Well thats good because I'd like to think OSU can easily handle Penn St

Yeah Im not ready to put that one in the W column for Ohio State. Penn State has played tough at home all year and frankly I think Ohio State is very over valued.

 

[relishingwinning18]

Originally posted by IAHawkGrad2000:

Originally posted by Ray Kinsella:

Originally posted by IAHawkGrad2000:


I get the MSU/Purdue game is a toss-up, but why would OSU winning be helpful? Just to help our seeding in the NCCA since we have the tie breaker for the B10 tourney?

If Iowa ended up tied with Purdue, Iowa would lose the tiebreaker. But if Iowa finished tied with Purdue AND Ohio State, Iowa would benefit from its 2 victories over Ohio State.

Really... did not know that. Well thats good because I'd like to think OSU can easily handle Penn St

Actually, if OSU loses it would be best for us as they are barely ahead of us in the RPI and we could jump them with that loss.

 

[TampaHawkfan]

Originally posted by IAHawkGrad2000:

I get the MSU/Purdue game is a toss-up, but why would OSU winning be helpful? Just to help our seeding in the NCCA since we have the tie breaker for the B10 tourney?

Guess I'm thinking RPI when it comes to OSU. If they lose to PSU, that hurts them, and hurts our RPI by extension. We want those two wins over them to look as good as possible.

So, I'm pulling for OSU for that reason, and for Purdue to beat MSU, for BTT seeding purposes.

This post was edited on 3/4 10:06 AM by TampaHawkfan

 

[OskaloosaHawk2]

Our RPI honestly doesn't need much help anymore. Being #35 in RPI now is pretty good. We root for Ohio St., as IF they beat both Penn State and Wisconsin, they can potentially help us out in a 3-way tie with Purdue. The other game doesn't really matter. But depending on the outcome, it will affect who we root for in upcoming games. We can still get the #3 seed in the BTT with anywhere from 3-5 games going the right way. There are a couple of different scenarios where we can still get the #3 seed, explained in a different thread.

 

[bagdropper]

Purdue loses to both MSU and Illinois
MSU loses to Indiana
OSU wins both

Iowa 3rd place, right?

 

[Hawkeye2222]

if Purdue loses both they finish 11-7
O$U loses to Wisconsin they finish 11-7
MSU beats Pyrdue then loses @ Indiana they finish 11-7

IA beats NW they finish 12-6 gets 3rd alone. no tie breaker needed

it all starts tonight with the MSU vs Purdue game. Purdue wins game over IA gets 4th alone again if they beat NW.

 

[OskaloosaHawk2]

Originally posted by bagdropper:

Purdue loses to both MSU and Illinois
MSU loses to Indiana
OSU wins both

Iowa 3rd place, right?

Purdue/MSU game doesn't even matter in this scenario. #3 seed either way.

 

[Douglas C. Neidermeyer]

What Cheer, IA?

 

[Hawkeye2222]

osk yes it does matter, Purdue is 11-5 and they hold the tie breaker with IA has they beat IA, the only way IA gets the 3 seed in a tiebreaker is if there is a 3 way tie breaker between IA, O$U and Purdue at 12-6, IA needs MSU to beat Purdue because I doubt that MSU will beat Wisconsin and Illinois will beat Purdue. don't see Indiana beating O$U.

it can happen but I will like IA's chances much better if MSU wins tonight,

if the seeds look like this I like IA's chances

4 MSU vs 5 O$U
3 IA vs 6 Purdue and with them on a losing streak I will take that any time,

besides can Wiscy beat MSU that close after beating them right before the BTT.

 

[OskaloosaHawk2]

http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

I don't know. I was just going by what it showed using this predictor. Enter the rest of the games and then do one with Purdue winning and one with MSU winning. It came up #3 either way.

As long as Illinois beats Purdue and Indiana beats MSU, the Purdue/MSU game tonight doesn't matter. Just pulls Purdue into a 3-way tie with us and Ohio St. and we come out on top whether it's a tie with Ohio St. or 3-way tie with OSU and Purdue. We win both of those scenarios.

This post was edited on 3/4 12:38 PM by OskaloosaHawk2

This post was edited on 3/4 12:39 PM by OskaloosaHawk2

 

[FranklinHawk]

Originally posted by Hawkeye2222:

osk yes it does matter, Purdue is 11-5 and they hold the tie breaker with IA has they beat IA, the only way IA gets the 3 seed in a tiebreaker is if there is a 3 way tie breaker between IA, O$U and Purdue at 12-6, IA needs MSU to beat Purdue because I doubt that MSU will beat Wisconsin and Illinois will beat Purdue. don't see Indiana beating O$U.

it can happen but I will like IA's chances much better if MSU wins tonight,

if the seeds look like this I like IA's chances

4 MSU vs 5 O$U
3 IA vs 6 Purdue and with them on a losing streak I will take that any time,

besides can Wiscy beat MSU that close after beating them right before the BTT.

And the scenario Osky was referring to has OSU at 12-6 as well, so even if Purdue finished 12-6 the Hawks win the 3-way tiebreaker. He just said if everything else in that scenario stood that Purdue didn't matter, which is correct.

 

[soybean]

Originally posted by IAHawkGrad2000:


I get the MSU/Purdue game is a toss-up, but why would OSU winning be helpful? Just to help our seeding in the NCCA since we have the tie breaker for the B10 tourney?

If we beat Northwestern Ohio State can't jump us.

 

[Mohawkeye]

Originally posted by SotaHawk87:
I would like to avoid Michigan State but its looking like Iowa will be a 4-5 no matter what which also more than likely means we play MSU.

Im pulling for Purdue though!

I'd love to get MSU. Even though we lost to them, I think we are playing much better than them and it is always easier to win the 2nd time around.

Plus, I don't see Purdue losing twice, so I'm pulling for MSU.

 

[thewop]

I don't believe OSU is going to beat PSU tonight. I'm also just hoping Purdue knocks off MSU and we'll take the 4 seed.

While I certainly understand the risks, I want our guys to have the opportunity to beat MSU one more time. I know it's something Aaron White hasn't done and really wants to do. A loss to MSU isn't going to hurt us, and a win will certainly help. What better way to prep for the NCAA Tourney than to play MSU->Wisky. Bring it on, but give us the 4 seed.

 

[hawkjt]

I would be ok with the #4 seed and playing MSU, but would love to get to #3 and play Terps in the semis rather than Wis. Want them on Sunday.

 

[StormHawk42]

Yeah I'm cheering for Purdue. They win and we take care of business Saturday, we get the 4. Illinois isn't beating Purdue in Mackey, so we'd likely land in the 5 slot anyway.

 

[Hawks2405]

I don't want a piece of Michigan State, I want the whole thing. Hopefully we can get the #4 seed so we are well-rested and ready to roll against them. We should all be rooting for Purdue tonight. At some point we need to slay the dragon.

 

[bouma1415]

It will depend on who wins on Saturday and Sunday before I decide who to cheer for on Wednesday.

 

[KuwaitHawk]

Purdue vs MSU is VERY IMPORTANT!!!

Need to have MSU beat PU.

PU then needs to lose to Illinois AND MSU needs to lose to Indiana.

That and only that gets Iowa third (Iowa needs to beat jNW).

 

[Servbot24]

Who do we cheer for with OSU vs PS? OSU loses and they fall beneath us in NCAA seed, but it also would slightly lower our RPI.

 

[StormHawk42]

Originally posted by Servbot24:
Who do we cheer for with OSU vs PS? OSU loses and they fall beneath us in NCAA seed, but it also would slightly lower our RPI.

I think it's a wash as it would also increase PSU's. As long as OSU doesn't drop out of the top 50 (which they wouldn't), it shouldn't hurt us too much.

Also if PSU wins, we can do no worse than the 5 seed.

 

[Hawkeye2222]

if O$U LOSES there is no 3 way tie between Purdue, IA and O$U, but looking at it I like the thought of Purdue playing MD, getting to 12-6 and a 4th in the BT in year 5 and solidly in the dance is a very sweet thought.

also the thought of facing MSU in the 3rd round of the BTT is not that scary now, as Izzo is losing his Mojo with the ref's in fact MSU could limp into the BTT on a 4 game losing streak and they might just lose in the 1st round. so IA may not get that shot.

remember last season nobody gave NW a chance against IA in the BTT and yet guess what NW won, also when Wisconsin beat IA in Carver, White was hurt and Olaseni was seen in a walking boot leading up to that game and Jok was just getting used to starting,

I like IA's chances in that 3rd matchup, with every one healthy and this team clicking now.

 

[unIowa]

We want OSU and Purdue. Too much has to happen to sneak into the 3 seed. Purdue wins, Iowa wins = 4 seed

 

[El Simbolo]

People in thi thread keep saying we'd win a 3 way tie with OSU and PU. Please explain why. Both us and PU would be 2-1 in games between the three teams, which eliminates OSU and then PU beats us head to head. Or do they view PU and UI as tied and the fact we beat Maryland pushes us to #3?