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Why Trump Won't Run Third Party

dandh

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Nov 11, 2002
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There's been lots of people worrying about Trump running third party. That's not gonna happen. I'd long suspected it, but it became very clear to me today when I saw a story on CNN. It wasn't about whether he would run or not - it was about his plan to aggressively solicit donations after he has the Republican nomination locked up.

You see, Trump is both a cheap bastard and not as wealthy as he claims. He especially doesn't have a ton of cash just sitting around waiting to be spent, as most of it is tied up in assets. So his claim to be self-funding is bogus, and he really needs to be the Republican candidate if he's going to fund-raise effectively. It just won't happen as a third party or independent, because he needs Republican Party lists and mechanisms to raise enough cash to actually participate in the general election.

He has strung along a lot of dupes with his "self-funding" schtick, all the time knowing that he had no plans to do that in the general election. He has been able to conserve his money by getting free media access to a degree no one ever has (or likely will in the future). He's spent very little, because it's his own money. And even what he's spent isn't really his own money - most of that has been "loaned" to the campaign, and he'll be repaying himself when the donations start rolling in.

Trump has no desire to spend a billion dollars of his own money on this campaign, and he's never planned to do so. His "self-funding" story has been like many of his other stories, designed to draw in suckers and too good to be true. There will be no advantage in this regard in the general election, as he will be grubbing for money just like everyone else. But it just may suck in enough folks to get him the nomination.

Take it to the bank - Trump will never run as a third party candidate or independent. He's not going to spend his own money, especially when he'd have almost no chance to win. It's not that big of a deal for him to lose if he's using donations, but he won't take the chance with his own money.

Link to article about Trump planning fundraising blitz below.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/03/politics/donald-trump-fundraising-republican-nomination/index.html
 
You can self-fund through primary races. The national race is where it becomes a lot more difficult to do, especially against Clinton/DNC. Trump spent something like 15 cents a vote in Super Tuesday states. You can't expect that in a general election race.

Plus, he knows if he is screwed out of the nomination at the convention the vast majority of his supporters will do one of two things...

1. Vote Clinton in protest
2. Stay at home and not vote
 
You can self-fund through primary races. The national race is where it becomes a lot more difficult to do, especially against Clinton/DNC. Trump spent something like 15 cents a vote in Super Tuesday states. You can't expect that in a general election race.

Plus, he knows if he is screwed out of the nomination at the convention the vast majority of his supporters will do one of two things...

1. Vote Clinton in protest
2. Stay at home and not vote
Will you still like Trump after he has sold himself? I would think that will just about crush the main reason to like him. It will show he is not an outsider, not honest and is corrupt just like any other politician. And Hillary will run Trump's own words back at him. If he doesn't loan himself a billion bucks, he is unmasked.
 
I've been saying since the beginning of the campaign that this story ends with the RNC writing Trump a huge check to go away. I still think that may happen.
 
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Trump really hasn't spent any money to date. If he were to run third party, he would continue to do it the same way, via the media.
No. Not possible. He'll need massive ad buys, as the equal time issue will be raised when it's intra-party. If he lets Hillary and the Republican outspend him by that much he'd lose in the "yugest" landslide ever seen. And no way his ego would let that happen. Third party is not an option for The Donald.

Thus far Trump has spent about $24 million, of which $17.5 million is what he "loaned" to the campaign. He'll get paid back later when they start aggressively seeking contributions.
 
No. Not possible. He'll need massive ad buys, as the equal time issue will be raised when it's intra-party. If he lets Hillary outspend him by that much he'll lose in a bigger landslide.

Thus far Trump has spent about $24 million, of which $17.5 million is what he "loaned" to the campaign. He'll get paid back later when they start aggressively seeking contributions.

This comment doesn't jive with realclearpolitics, not that they're the end-all-be-all of information. Do you have a link to back this up?
 
This comment doesn't jive with realclearpolitics, not that they're the end-all-be-all of information. Do you have a link to back this up?
If you're talking about the spending, the article I linked in the OP.

Note: I edited the post after you posted - hadn't included the R candidate.
 
Running 3rd party isn't something Trump can do at any moment, he would need to act now. Sore loser laws and filing deadlines make his window of opportunity very small. Ohio and Michigan have laws hat say any candidate who runs under one party in the primary can't be on the ballot under another label. Michigan is March 8th and Ohio the 15th. If Trump waits to drop out, he won't be competing in those states as a 3rd party candidate. Texas requires 80k signatures by May to get on the ballot with the other states having later dates.

http://thefederalist.com/2016/02/18/trump-can-probably-run-a-third-party-campaign-but-he-shouldnt/
 
So CNN says he's going to do this? I'm sure it could be. I'm interested to see how it actually plays out, but he has to survive the Reps going scorched Earth first.
Click on the link and read the story. CNN has a source who is telling them this.

Here's the lede:

Donald Trump -- who has attracted voters with his pledge to fund his campaign from his own bank account -- intends to reverse course and raise money in the general election if he wins the Republican nomination, according to a source familiar with the plan.
 
Trump has been accepting donations from the start. Go to his election website the first thing you see is a link on how to donate. Granted this is just individuals and 2700 cap but Bernie has raised a ton that way.

One of the main argument for the hardcover Trump supporter is he's using his own money. Hard to believe how many buy this lie.
 
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Trump has been accepting donations from the start. Go to his election website the first thing you see is a link on how to donate. Granted this is just individuals and 2700 cap but Bernie has raised a ton that way.

One of the main argument for the hardcover Trump supporter is he's using his own money. Hard to believe how many buy this lie.
Yes, but the difference is how he is planning to go all out requesting donations, and use the Republican Party resources to do so. I think that's always been his plan. Self-funding has always been less than true, now it's a big fat lie.
 
Running 3rd party isn't something Trump can do at any moment, he would need to act now. Sore loser laws and filing deadlines make his window of opportunity very small. Ohio and Michigan have laws hat say any candidate who runs under one party in the primary can't be on the ballot under another label. Michigan is March 8th and Ohio the 15th. If Trump waits to drop out, he won't be competing in those states as a 3rd party candidate. Texas requires 80k signatures by May to get on the ballot with the other states having later dates.

http://thefederalist.com/2016/02/18/trump-can-probably-run-a-third-party-campaign-but-he-shouldnt/
Texas adds the zinger that the 80k petition signers MUST NOT have voted in the primaries for either party.
 
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Seems like a Bloomberg writer agrees with me about Trump not running third party. From the linked article:

Donald Trump is not going to run as a third-party presidential candidate, even if he’s denied the Republican nomination.

There, I said it.

I’m not saying whether it would be a good idea for the GOP to deny him the nomination if he gets a plurality but not a majority of the delegates. But if it does, he won’t run third-party: He can’t afford it.


I direct you to his personal financial disclosure form, which said he had about $300 million in cash and marketable securities. That’s a lot of money! Stunningly, however, it is not enough money to run a major presidential campaign, which now clocks in at around $1 billion.

If Trump runs as a third-party candidate, the money to do so is going to have to come mostly out of his own pocket. The Republican Party’s traditional donors certainly aren’t going to help him. And so far, he’s shown no ability to raise the kind of staggering totals that, say, Bernie Sanders has managed to get from small donors. Trump’s campaign has raised just $25 million, of which only about $8 million comes from sources other than Donald J. Trump. He’s raised less in small contributions than Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio have.

Of course, maybe people just aren’t bothering to send money because he says he’s self-funding. Maybe in the general election, he could plead for funds and they’d open their wallets. Only … part of his appeal is that he’s so very rich that he doesn’t need donations. How long does that appeal last if it turns out he doesn’t have that much money in the bank and needs donors just as much as other politicians do?

He could maybe mortgage some of his interests, borrowing a billion dollars to fund a campaign. But this seems … unlikely. For one thing, by the most generous non-Trump estimates of his net worth, that would mean mortgaging about a quarter of his assets for a near-certain loss. Or mortgaging less but spending down all his liquid assets.

And to be competitive in the general election, he would have to spend something close to that amount. His extremely lean campaign strategy won’t work in the general. He’s benefited immensely from free airtime, and as of three months ago, it was estimated that about a quarter of his campaign spending actually went to companies he owns. In the general, he’s going to have to spend a lot of money on things that Trump companies can’t provide, such as campaign staff and television and radio airtime. Once it’s down to two or three candidates in a general election, the media is going to make sure the other folks get as much airtime as he does.

Trump, some of his detractors say, is just crazy enough to do it anyway. But I’m skeptical. He’s been bankrupt before, and at age 69, he doesn’t have a lot of time for yet another comeback. And even if he was mad enough to try, are bankers insane enough to help him? As known expert Donald Trump once noted: "These lenders aren’t babies. These are total killers. These are not the nice, sweet little people that you’d think." One suspects that they might, in the end, be the ones who kill any hope of a third-party campaign.

Link below.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-07/donald-trump-doesn-t-have-enough-money
 
Why would he run if he were denied? Then he would be done mission accomplished. Hills is queen
 
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