I'm not going to couch coach what McCaffery should do this season with our freshmen. I think he's shown that if they can play they will. Certainly Wagner and Baer have seen the court. The second thing I'm not going to do is speculate as to who might be a "bust", or end up transferring. I know it is always quite possible that a player won't succeed in earning many minutes of play. Likewise, obviously any player can decide to transfer and these days roughly two per D1 team do so every year!
I will express my observations. As to why certain players aren't on the court much? We have four quite talented seniors, one junior who is emerging as a top level Big Ten player, and a sophomore who shows signs of doing the same down the road. That's our top six! Anybody else is going to start out at #7 at best. So clearly we're looking for role players to fill limited minutes. The season started out with Ellingson at #7, and Dale Jones looked to be #8.
Now as to the capabilities of the freshmen? Including Wagner and Ellingson? Baer, Williams, Fleming and even the redshirts Hutton and Moss? All
seven of em!?!??
I'm going to try to express this a different way than usual. I have watched them play as much as I can be it on video or at the PTL. I have read as much as I can about them. But, forget what I think I've seen.
If I were a blind man I would know this:
1) Yes we've had some guys pick up and leave after limited minutes on the court. Three in the first five seasons. Ingram, Meyer and Dickerson. So it does happen, and will continue to happen.
2) But as to guessing who will fail? Gesell has been criticized, Woodbury, Clemmons, Jok and Uhl. In my opinion all five have been heavily criticized at times, some worse than others. I won't include Uthoff though I can recall that he doesn't get excited enough, can't play the four and get rebounds and oh no, he bulked up too much since last year this is going to turn out like Basabe.
And yet, through the attrition and the inept players we currently have we're doing quite well this year.
So we must have the luckiest coach in the history of the NCAA's and I see no reason to expect that to change.