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Women's Big Ten Tourney Predictor

Played around with some most likely W/L combos with regular season games left.
Just too many possible combos left to try them all.
For the most part we're looking at a 9 - 11 seed. This assumes we beat WI.
It looks like the 11th and 12th seeds have the best path to make to the Final Four, but at the expense of playing 1 extra game before playing against the top tier. It also gives us a good chance to pick up 2+ wins on the resume.

If we win at Michigan, we're mostly likely looking at a 9 - 10 seed.
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Did find a path to the 11th seed if we beat Michigan. However, this would take a lot of lower standing away teams beating higher standing home teams. Highly unlikely, but not impossible.
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It seems if we lose to Michigan, we're most likely looking at the 11 seed.
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If we care about seeding in the BTT, then yeah we should lose to Michigan.

If we care about seeding in the NCAA Tournament, then we absolutely need to beat Michigan.

The only benefit to being the 11 seed is that we get an extra game and Ohio State is a bit more manageable a team to beat a second time around than UCLA or USC will be.

However because these committees snack on dried dog sh** while putting the NCAA Tournaments together, they, in their esteemed and grand wisdom, continue to ignore most any conference tournament results unless it directly impacts whether or not they think a bubble team should get in the field (or there's an upset tourney winner that might bounce a team here or there, or move the field around).

That's why beating Michigan is more important than staging another deep run in the BTT...............because these committees are f***ing poop-eating morons. :)
 
It's interesting how being an 11 seed offers an "easier" path to the title game than being a 9 seed, although the 11 seed plays an extra game.

But the BTT doesn't really matter. Win and keep winning. That's all that matters. Although I will say this: I would love to see Iowa get a rematch with UCLA in a game fairly officiated that isn't decided by UCLA intentionally tripping Iowa and winning on bogus FTs.
 
Assuming Iowa can beat Wisconsin, seeding pretty much locked in.
Only game that changes thing is Michigan vs Ill.
Iowa is 10 if Michigan wins and 9 if Illinois.
Iowa loses tiebreaker to Michigan St, Indiana and Oregon unless something really odd happens.
 
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Can someone explain to me based on Q1 record, SOS, and having the same w-l record with Iowa winning head to head on the road that Michigan was a projected 6 seed and Iowa a 8 or 9?

I would hope we flip but this isn't close... we should be ahead.


Also, why is UCONN #1 in the NET? They are 4-3 in Q1 games. Have a terrible... TERRIBLE conference schedule. The two teams behind them are 11-3 in Q1 and 11-2 in Q1.
 
Can someone explain to me based on Q1 record, SOS, and having the same w-l record with Iowa winning head to head on the road that Michigan was a projected 6 seed and Iowa a 8 or 9?

I would hope we flip but this isn't close... we should be ahead.

Also, why is UCONN #1 in the NET? They are 4-3 in Q1 games. Have a terrible... TERRIBLE conference schedule. The two teams behind them are 11-3 in Q1 and 11-2 in Q1.

Because metrics are mysteriously inconsistent!! They are supposed to be impartial, but there are always bizarre outliers. Im assuming the South Carolina game (a major outlier in & off itself) skewed things 🤷‍♂️?

UCONNS, SOS is 37th?! Their conference is worse than the Valley, in fact Drake/UNI would be 2 of the better teams in the Big East.
 
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