Yet another stock market thread - time line if this is a true crash

[Tenacious E]

Seems like the last two crashes we had were about 8 - 16 months before a rebound.

About 9/07 through 12/08 for a reduction of about 50% off peak. Took until about 3/13 to recover back to pre-crash levels, or about 4.5 years.

About 12/21 through about 8/22 for a reduction of about off 25%. Took until about 11/23 to recover back to pre-crash levels, or about 2 years.

For both previous crashes we lost about 3.125% on average per month, from peak. So far we are down about 8% (not counting today) from peak over the course of less than one month, so over double and almost triple the rate of falling. While many believed the market was priced too high, certainly what is driving the rate of negative change is Trump's erratic and unexpected behavior. If the market is going to take a 20% haircut, hopefully its over by Memorial Day of Father's Day, and we can get back to a rebound. Optimistically I suppose by tax day in April. In this accelerated time line, I wonder if recovery would be around between Halloween and Christmas of this year... Thoughts?

 

[tarheelbybirth]

Seems like the last two crashes we had were about 8 - 16 months before a rebound.

About 9/07 through 12/08 for a reduction of about 50% off peak. Took until about 3/13 to recover back to pre-crash levels, or about 4.5 years.

About 12/21 through about 8/22 for a reduction of about off 25%. Took until about 11/23 to recover back to pre-crash levers, or about 2 years.

For both previous crashes we lost about 3.125% on average per month, from peak. So far we are down about 8% (not counting today) from peak over the course of less than one month, so over double and almost triple the rate of falling. While many believed the market was priced too high, certainly what is driving the rate of negative change is Trump's erratic and unexpected behavior. If the market is going to take a 20% haircut, hopefully its over by Memorial Day of Father's Day, and we can get back to a rebound. Optimistically I suppose by tax day in April. In this accelerated time line, I wonder if recovery would be around between Halloween and Christmas of this year... Thoughts?

What would he do that would lead to a rebound? You think he’ll be less erratic? His trade war could theoretically crash the world economy.

 

[FlickShagwell]

Soonest the Democrats can start to clean this mess up is 2027.

 

[Underscore2]

Soonest the Democrats can start to clean this mess up is 2027.

Will need to happen much sooner than that I'm afraid, and I would not depend on the Dems unless they can pull their collective heads out. The only person making sense now is Bernie IMHO. The job opennings report was positive, and the market started staying on a recovery course at least for the morning, it looked like, Then at that same time Trump opened his mouth and bam, back down. Un ****ing Believalbe.

 

[Joes Place]

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

Soonest the Democrats can start to clean this mess up is 2027.

That's what we are seeing, totally not having to address all the shit that was swept under the rug.......

 

[runkpanole]

It will be over by Easter

 

[Tenacious E]

What would he do that would lead to a rebound? You think he’ll be less erratic? His trade war could theoretically crash the world economy.

What can I say, I'm an optimist or a conspiracy theorist. Optimistically, there will eventually be a backlash and tariffs are rescinded, and the market goes about its business. If I had a conspiracy theory, Trump is forcing an accelerated selloff to create a buying opportunity, and is interested in a quick buck on the rebound.

 

[Tenacious E]

That's what we are seeing, totally not having to address all the shit that was swept under the rug.......

Well then, how much of a correction do you see while under the rug is cleaned? 50% like in 2007? 25% in 2021? More? Less?

 

[noStemsnoSTICKS]

I keep looking for something to buy, and then it drops another 700 points.

I don't think we're near the bottom yet. I'm guessing the Dow will bottom out around 36K.

 

[desihawk]

In this accelerated time line, I

why do youi forsee a significant;y accelerated timeline...both previous examples you say took around a year to bottom

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

Well then, how much of a correction do you see while under the rug is cleaned? 50% like in 2007? 25% in 2021? More? Less?

Tough to tell how inflated it all really was, I also think we are seeing a fair amount of emotion driven decisions right now.

I'll say 25%.

I'll say it will return slower than the Biden 25% though as I HOPEwe don't try to pay our way out again and push the pick down the road.

 

[Tenacious E]

why do youi forsee a significant;y accelerated timeline...both previous examples you say took around a year to bottom

Because this fall is happening 3x faster, counting today so far. 2007 was a collapse of the banking system. Took longer to restructure and rebound. 2021 into 2022 was covid/supply chain related, but it was a year or two in the making. This is precipitated by rash behavior which can be undone. If we go back to the status quo of 2/1/25, I think the markets would snap back pretty quickly, relatively speaking.

 

[bagdropper]

It will be over by Easter

As soon as it gets warm most likely.

 

[Joes Place]

Because this fall is happening 3x faster, counting today so far. 2007 was a collapse of the banking system. Took longer to restructure and rebound. 2021 into 2022 was covid/supply chain related, but it was a year or two in the making. This is precipitated by rash behavior which can be undone. If we go back to the status quo of 2/1/25, I think the markets would snap back pretty quickly, relatively speaking.

That's only going to happen if the markets can "trust" it won't happen again.

The chaos here, along with dismantling elements of the federal workforce that will have longer term fallout effects cannot be fixed until there is stability in how we go about "workforce reductions" that isn't a bunch of teenagers looking up "woke" terms.

GOP can fix this, easily, by standing up to Trump and giving him ultimatums, and returning to Congress the Constitutional controls afforded to them. But if they keep outsourcing all that to Trump and Musk, we will not see much recovery anytime soon IMO. Markets abhor uncertainty and instability - that is what the GOP is fostering and ensuring right now.

 

[IAHawk2011]

What can I say, I'm an optimist or a conspiracy theorist. Optimistically, there will eventually be a backlash and tariffs are rescinded, and the market goes about its business. If I had a conspiracy theory, Trump is forcing an accelerated selloff to create a buying opportunity, and is interested in a quick buck on the rebound.

It seems pretty obvious at this point that he is trying to push the economy into a recession ASAP.

The economy has been in a precarious situation for the last few years. The Fed has been delicately trying to balance unemployment and inflation, and a correction is coming at some point.

If Trump can force the recession to happen now, he can blame it on Biden, but two years from now he won’t have that same luxury. So he’s doing it now, knowing that it will force the Fed’s hand to start cutting interest rates (and maybe bring back some form of QE). I imagine the tariffs will get lifted about the same time to give the recovery even more fuel.

 

[abby97]

Soonest the Democrats can start to clean this mess up is 2027.

How, by spending even more money we don't have?

 

[Tenacious E]

That's only going to happen if the markets can "trust" it won't happen again.

The chaos here, along with dismantling elements of the federal workforce that will have longer term fallout effects cannot be fixed until there is stability in how we go about "workforce reductions" that isn't a bunch of teenagers looking up "woke" terms.

GOP can fix this, easily, by standing up to Trump and giving him ultimatums, and returning to Congress the Constitutional controls afforded to them. But if they keep outsourcing all that to Trump and Musk, we will not see much recovery anytime soon IMO. Markets abhor uncertainty and instability - that is what the GOP is fostering and ensuring right now.

I don't disagree with you. I guess I am hoping there will be a come to jesus moment here, perhaps fittingly by easter.

 

[Tenacious E]

It seems pretty obvious at this point that he is trying to push the economy into a recession ASAP.

The economy has been in a precarious situation for the last few years. The Fed has been delicately trying to balance unemployment and inflation, and a correction is coming at some point.

If Trump can force the recession to happen now, he can blame it on Biden, but two years from now he won’t have that same luxury. So he’s doing it now, knowing that it will force the Fed’s hand to start cutting interest rates (and maybe bring back some form of QE). I imagine the tariffs will get lifted about the same time to give the recovery even more fuel.

While no one has a crystal ball, what is your guess on a recession recovery time?

 

[desihawk]

Because this fall is happening 3x faster, counting today so far. 2007 was a collapse of the banking system. Took longer to restructure and rebound. 2021 into 2022 was covid/supply chain related, but it was a year or two in the making. This is precipitated by rash behavior which can be undone. If we go back to the status quo of 2/1/25, I think the markets would snap back pretty quickly, relatively speaking.

what makes you confident this fall is 3x faster? the downtrend could coceivably last for a few quarters with a few counter head feints when trump makes some moves to temporarily ameliorate the markets (same as previous administrations did in the previous instances)

i'm not saying i know what's going to happen...except that my rational attempts at prediction have not worked in the past

 

[tumorboy]

It will be over by Easter

 

[tumorboy]

How, by spending even more money we don't have?

Closing DOGE and forcing some restrictions on the POTUS. Currently the issue with the economy is commander tariff running around with no strategy.

 

[Tenacious E]

Tough to tell how inflated it all really was, I also think we are seeing a fair amount of emotion driven decisions right now.

I'll say 25%.

I'll say it will return slower than the Biden 25% though as I HOPEwe don't try to pay our way out again and push the pick down the road.

I would say if you and others are correct in that there was a false inflation of the market before things are "cleaned up," we are looking at the S&P falling to 3,500 to 3,750, for about a 40% hit off peak.

 

[IAHawk2011]

While no one has a crystal ball, what is your guess on a recession recovery time?

I’m by no means an expert, but I would guess that any potential recession is not particularly deep because of the tools that will be available to fix it (Fed now has room to cut rates, bring back QE, Trump admin can lift tariffs and will push for tax cuts, etc.).

I would expect things to turn around relatively quickly.

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

I would say if you and others are correct in that there was a false inflation of the market before things are "cleaned up," we are looking at the S&P falling to 3,500 to 3,750, for about a 40% hit off peak.

I can see how you got your numbers but there will be actual growth offsetting the 40 which is why I think we see "25".


There was a ton of bullshit money pumped int.o the markets

 

[Joes Place]

I don't disagree with you. I guess I am hoping there will be a come to jesus moment here, perhaps fittingly by easter.

100% depends on Republicans getting a backbone, and a coalition of them standing up and saying "no".

If they cannot find the people in their party who can do that, it will not "get better" anytime soon, IMO

 

[HawkeyeHitman]

Soonest the Democrats can start to clean this mess up is 2027.

You caused the mess by not adding any value to society.

 

[RollingBallofButcherKnives]

That's what we are seeing, totally not having to address all the shit that was swept under the rug.......

The dumbass is crashing the stock market with his bullshit. That 90 day review is going to be pretty damning.

 

[RollingBallofButcherKnives]

You caused the mess by not adding any value to society.

The next post from you that adds any value to anything will be your first.

 

[Joes Place]

If Trump can force the recession to happen now, he can blame it on Biden

How?

WSJ told you back in October that the next President will inherit "a remarkable economy".

 

[ThorneStockton]

How, by spending even more money we don't have?

Embracing free trade? If you're old enough to remember the Republican party before Trump hijacked it, that was something they used to believe in.

 

[Tom Paris]

Will need to happen much sooner than that I'm afraid, and I would not depend on the Dems unless they can pull their collective heads out. The only person making sense now is Bernie IMHO. The job opennings report was positive, and the market started staying on a recovery course at least for the morning, it looked like, Then at that same time Trump opened his mouth and bam, back down. Un ****ing Believalbe.

He HAS to be doing this on purpose.

 

[RollingBallofButcherKnives]

That's only going to happen if the markets can "trust" it won't happen again.

The chaos here, along with dismantling elements of the federal workforce that will have longer term fallout effects cannot be fixed until there is stability in how we go about "workforce reductions" that isn't a bunch of teenagers looking up "woke" terms.

GOP can fix this, easily, by standing up to Trump and giving him ultimatums, and returning to Congress the Constitutional controls afforded to them. But if they keep outsourcing all that to Trump and Musk, we will not see much recovery anytime soon IMO. Markets abhor uncertainty and instability - that is what the GOP is fostering and ensuring right now.

Russia loves this

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

Embracing free trade? If you're old enough to remember the Republican party before Trump hijacked it, that was something they used to believe in.

Not only am I old enough to remember that, I'm old enough to remember when people were expected to uphold their obligations.

 

[QChawks]

 

[Tom Paris]

Embracing free trade? If you're old enough to remember the Republican party before Trump hijacked it, that was something they used to believe in.

abby is a full on cult member.

 

[ThorneStockton]

Not only am I old enough to remember that, I'm old enough to remember when people were expected to uphold their obligations.

Are you referring to the free trade deal from the first Trump admin?

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

In 2008, it was only the banking system that collapsed. But then we had a functioning government being run by reasonably-competent people.

Also, the 2008 collapse started late in the second GWB term, with a takeover by Democrats looking likely. Trump's term has just begun and his party has a majority in all branches of government. And most of the current GOP is either terrified of being physically attacked by MAGA lunatics for publicly challenging Trump or they are lunatics themselves. There is no hope for a "changing" of the guard any time soon.

 

[Joes Place]

 

[Joes Place]