On Sunday, NBC News released a new national poll of the 2024 election that, in another context, would have been a political earthquake of unprecedented scale. Instead, it was an aftershock.
The network’s pollsters called Americans to ask them their choice in a hypothetical — but increasingly probable — election between President Biden and Donald Trump. Trump held a narrow edge, within the margin of error, but outperforming where polls stood shortly before the November 2020 election featuring the same candidates.
What triggered Richter measurements, though, was the result among young voters, those under age 35. They not only didn’t give Biden a substantial edge, as they had in 2020, but they also offered a narrow advantage to Trump. Again, within the margin of error, but that’s a bit like discovering thieves stole all but $5 from your bank account — not much consolation for the president’s reelection team.
So let’s take a step back and consider why those positions might have shifted — and why, as Burn-Murdoch notes, support for Biden among Black and Hispanic voters has similarly seemed to soften in recent polls.
One can point to a lot of recent triggers for Biden’s erosion of support. But this isn’t simply a new phenomenon, related, for example, to opposition to Biden’s response to the Israel-Gaza war. In April 2022, we noted that Biden’s approval rating had fallen the most among the youngest Americans, in part because they were higher in the first place. This trend has been measurable for a while.
Biden’s initial candidacy and subsequent presidency have been heavily centered on bolstering institutions, in part as a response to Trump’s term in office. But he also needs the Democratic Party and Democrats to stand with him because he is the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee. He needs to bank that institutional support — but young people have shown little such loyalty. Though they are ideologically to the left, benefiting Democrats in other elections, like the 2022 midterms, there doesn’t appear to be loyalty to Biden simply for being the Democrat on the ticket. I mean, they’re often independent! But even the partisans haven’t been voting Democratic for decades, the sort of institutional habit that parties need.
Political scientist Julia Azari said it best: We’re in an era of weak parties and strong partisanship. That is probably working heavily against Biden as an older, moderate, institutional candidate when considered by progressive, young, independent voters.
I’m at risk here of absolving Biden of any culpability. It’s clear that his problem isn’t only institutional. A fifth of Democrats in the NBC poll said they disapproved of his presidency. He has significant challenges that extend beyond this sort of abstract consideration of the polls. But it also means that he may have a lower floor than he would like, with even people who back Democrats being willing to jump ship or stay home.
The network’s pollsters called Americans to ask them their choice in a hypothetical — but increasingly probable — election between President Biden and Donald Trump. Trump held a narrow edge, within the margin of error, but outperforming where polls stood shortly before the November 2020 election featuring the same candidates.
What triggered Richter measurements, though, was the result among young voters, those under age 35. They not only didn’t give Biden a substantial edge, as they had in 2020, but they also offered a narrow advantage to Trump. Again, within the margin of error, but that’s a bit like discovering thieves stole all but $5 from your bank account — not much consolation for the president’s reelection team.
So let’s take a step back and consider why those positions might have shifted — and why, as Burn-Murdoch notes, support for Biden among Black and Hispanic voters has similarly seemed to soften in recent polls.
One can point to a lot of recent triggers for Biden’s erosion of support. But this isn’t simply a new phenomenon, related, for example, to opposition to Biden’s response to the Israel-Gaza war. In April 2022, we noted that Biden’s approval rating had fallen the most among the youngest Americans, in part because they were higher in the first place. This trend has been measurable for a while.
Biden’s initial candidacy and subsequent presidency have been heavily centered on bolstering institutions, in part as a response to Trump’s term in office. But he also needs the Democratic Party and Democrats to stand with him because he is the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee. He needs to bank that institutional support — but young people have shown little such loyalty. Though they are ideologically to the left, benefiting Democrats in other elections, like the 2022 midterms, there doesn’t appear to be loyalty to Biden simply for being the Democrat on the ticket. I mean, they’re often independent! But even the partisans haven’t been voting Democratic for decades, the sort of institutional habit that parties need.
Political scientist Julia Azari said it best: We’re in an era of weak parties and strong partisanship. That is probably working heavily against Biden as an older, moderate, institutional candidate when considered by progressive, young, independent voters.
I’m at risk here of absolving Biden of any culpability. It’s clear that his problem isn’t only institutional. A fifth of Democrats in the NBC poll said they disapproved of his presidency. He has significant challenges that extend beyond this sort of abstract consideration of the polls. But it also means that he may have a lower floor than he would like, with even people who back Democrats being willing to jump ship or stay home.
