Not much change in first major Trump, Biden poll post-SOTU

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

With the election still eight months away, about a quarter of respondents said they may change their minds before November.

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remain neck and neck in the first major national poll since the State of the Union, released the day after both clinched their party’s nominations for the presidential primary.

Trump saw 40 percent support from surveyed respondents in a hypothetical matchup, according to the USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll released Wednesday — slightly higher than Biden’s 38 percent support but within the poll’s margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points.


A solid chunk of respondents, 16 percent, said they would opt for an alternative candidate: Green Party candidate Jill Stein, independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, or a candidate for the Libertarian Party or No Labels. Kennedy received the most support of the bunch, with 9 percent of respondents saying they would back him. Only 5 percent said they remain undecided.

With the election still eight months away, about a quarter of respondents said they may change their minds before November — including 15 percent of Trump voters and 14 percent of Biden voters.

Those supporting a third-party or independent candidate were greatly open to changing their minds, the poll found, including 94 percent of Stein supporters and 75 percent of Kennedy supporters.

This means there is still room for each candidate to sway voters towards them.

USA TODAY and Suffolk University conducted the poll of 1,000 registered voters by landline and cell phone between March 8 and 11. There is a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/13/trump-biden-polls-00146703

 

[Huey Grey]

RFK gets 9 points? This poll is garbage

 

[sober_teacher]

RFK gets 9 points? This poll is garbage

It’s March. Historically, support for 3rd party candidates melts away as the election gets closer as most of their supporters don’t actually want to waste their votes.

 

[Rifler]

Appears that the viewing public didn't necessarily agree with all the media praise that was being heaped upon Biden after his State of the Union address...

 

[GOHOX69]

16 percent are opting for the green party? Haha. Was this poll conducted in Stoner, New Mexico?

 

[MichaelKeller99]

Fake poll to keep people interested.

Does anyone actually believe there are Trump or Biden voters still trying to decide how they’re going to vote.

Both sides have a visceral, burning hatred for the other side and there is NOTHING that will change how they feel.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

RFK gets 9 points? This poll is garbage

As @sober_teacher pointed out it's not garbage, it's just too early. Polls are theoretical when you get closer to the election people stop looking at the theoretical and start looking at the reality. That causes them to start moving off 3rd party candidates and moving towards one of the 2 parties to vote for the "least bad".

And honestly in elections like this one there is going to be a lot of people who fall behind 3rd party candidates initially because few are enthused about either candidate.

Polls before the conventions don't have a strong predictive history.

 

[TJ8869]

Does anyone actually believe there are Trump or Biden voters still trying to decide how they’re going to vote.

This. No one is torn between voting for Trump or voting for Biden. The only question remaining for 99.999% of voters is whether or not to even bother voting.

 

[Chishawk1425]

 

[BioHawk]

As @sober_teacher pointed out it's not garbage, it's just too early. Polls are theoretical when you get closer to the election people stop looking at the theoretical and start looking at the reality. That causes them to start moving off 3rd party candidates and moving towards one of the 2 parties to vote for the "least bad".

And honestly in elections like this one there is going to be a lot of people who fall behind 3rd party candidates initially because few are enthused about either candidate.

Polls before the conventions don't have a strong predictive history.

I generally agree with the ideas mentioned here, however polling for the last 4 years has been significantly off and not reflective of what actually happened in the elections. I'm not sure if this is because the media is manufacturing a horse race for ratings, too many groups with an agenda are making poor polls, or if it's just because a huge swath of the population does not have a land line and will not answer a call from some random place so they aren't being included in these polls.

 

[ICWestfan]

National polls? I just need the 5 or 6 toss up state polls for everything I need to know.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

Fake poll to keep people interested.

Does anyone actually believe there are Trump or Biden voters still trying to decide how they’re going to vote.

Both sides have a visceral, burning hatred for the other side and there is NOTHING that will change how they feel.

We see it here all the time

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

It’s March. Historically, support for 3rd party candidates melts away as the election gets closer as most of their supporters don’t actually want to waste their votes.

Who do you think most RFK supporters would shift to?

 

[BelemNole]

Really expected a link from the rasmussen polls from the OP.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Really expected a link from the rasmussen polls from the OP.

But as per usual...wrong.

 

[Randon]

Can you imagine anyone 10-15 years ago voting for a convicted felon to be president of the US? Certainly sounds incomprehensible but unfortunately it's today's reality. It's incredibly sad how this country has stooped to this.

 

[BelemNole]

But as per usual...wrong.

Yeah, but if you look at both sides...I'm right.
You of all people should understand this.

 

[sober_teacher]

Who do you think most RFK supporters would shift to?

I’m honestly not sure - he obviously ran initially as a Democrat; but he also has people who like him for some of his anti-vax/conspiracy stances.

My brain thinks they split, with perhaps more staying with Biden in the end. But that’s just me speculating. I’ve read some opinion pieces either way.

 

[FFRoadster]

20% of people are in the Trump cult
20% of people will vote for Trump because Biden sucks
20% of people are in the Biden cult
20% of people will vote for Biden because Trump sucks
The remaining 20% hate them both intensely and will probably vote third party or sit it out
I predict a historically low turnout election with the winner getting 46 or 47% of the popular vote

 

[Tom Paris]

National polls? I just need the 5 or 6 toss up state polls for everything I need to know.

This is the part that should piss Democrats and Republicans off equally. Votes don’t even matter in about 45 states. We already know 90% of the results. 4-5 states determine the POTUS for the rest of us and that really doesn’t seem fair to the rest of us.

 

[Tom Paris]

Can you imagine anyone 10-15 years ago voting for a convicted felon to be president of the US? Certainly sounds incomprehensible but unfortunately it's today's reality. It's incredibly sad how this country has stooped to this.

The interviews with MAGAs who think having a dictator is something we need is a slap to every man or woman who died fighting dictators elsewhere. It’s sickening that AMERICANS could think that way…because it’s 100% anti-American.

 

[Tom Paris]

20% of people are in the Trump cult
20% of people will vote for Trump because Biden sucks
20% of people are in the Biden cult
20% of people will vote for Biden because Trump sucks
The remaining 20% hate them both intensely and will probably vote third party or sit it out
I predict a historically low turnout election with the winner getting 46 or 47% of the popular vote

Biden cult? Tell me you don’t know what a cult is without telling me you don’t know what a cult is. There aren’t hundreds of Biden stores around the country. There aren’t Biden hats, shirts and shoes all over. Biden has voters. Trump has minions. Idiot.

 

[ping72]

35% of people are in the Trump cult
10% of people will vote for Trump because Biden sucks
10% of people support Biden
40% of people will vote for Biden because Trump sucks
The remaining 5% hate them both intensely and will probably vote third party

FIFY

 

[Huey Grey]

As @sober_teacher pointed out it's not garbage, it's just too early. Polls are theoretical when you get closer to the election people stop looking at the theoretical and start looking at the reality. That causes them to start moving off 3rd party candidates and moving towards one of the 2 parties to vote for the "least bad".

And honestly in elections like this one there is going to be a lot of people who fall behind 3rd party candidates initially because few are enthused about either candidate.

Polls before the conventions don't have a strong predictive history.

It's garbage in terms of having any bearing on the actual election.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

It's garbage in terms of having any bearing on the actual election.

Fair, I would wait til after the conventions and see how things look then.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Trump holds slight lead over Biden in 6 swing states, WSJ poll finds​

Biden won six of the states in the 2020 presidential election, with only North Carolina going to Trump.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/03/trump-biden-polls-2024-00150322

Still a large "undecided" contingent. Pretty good bet the majority of those swing Biden's way...

On that note. I'd like the poll question to be "If the election was today, who do you vote for"....no "undecided" option.

Would give a much clearer picture of the situation.

 

[sober_teacher]

Trump holds slight lead over Biden in 6 swing states, WSJ poll finds​

Biden won six of the states in the 2020 presidential election, with only North Carolina going to Trump.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/03/trump-biden-polls-2024-00150322

Still a large "undecided" contingent. Pretty good bet the majority of those swing Biden's way...

On that note. I'd like the poll question to be "If the election was today, who do you vote for"....no "undecided" option.

Would give a much clearer picture of the situation.

Now that the primaries are effectively over, I’ll start paying a bit more attention to polls as they’re not hypothetical matchups anymore.

Only remaining question is whether or not RFKs numbers hold steady or if they gradually melt away as the election gets closer. History suggests it’ll be the latter but we’re in a weird state in politics.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Now that the primaries are effectively over, I’ll start paying a bit more attention to polls as they’re not hypothetical matchups anymore.

Only remaining question is whether or not RFKs numbers hold steady or if they gradually melt away as the election gets closer. History suggests it’ll be the latter but we’re in a weird state in politics.

Cornel West and Jill Stein are also problems. 1% voting for west or Stein in a "swing" state could be huge.

Trumps only drain on that front is probably RFK jr but I'm still not sure if he pulls more from Trump or Biden.