2023-24 Big Ten MBB Discussion Thread
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Also, I followed the Rutgers/St Johns scrimmage pretty closely yesterday--unfortunately no live video, but it was played as a mostly "real" game. Rutgers was down 18 at halftime and shot 0/11 from 3 in the first half but came back and forced OT. St. Johns hit a buzzer beater 3 to force a 2nd OT and then they won handily in the 2nd half. Rutgers still without Mag but he's supposed to be getting cleared to play very soon. Gavin Griffiths is starting as a freshman (he took an OV to Iowa a couple years ago) and he hit 3 3s in the second half yesterday.
Iowa supposedly won by 20ish but it was a weird setup with lots of short periods to try out different looks. It wasn't a true 40 minute game like Rutgers/St Johns from yesterday or OSU/Dayton that's happening right now.
Heard the starters were Perkins, Dix, Patrick, Sandfort, and Krikke.
I like that lineup.
Have you heard that or any other info - who looked good, struggled, etc.?
I like that lineup.
Have you heard that or any other info - who looked good, struggled, etc.?
OSU 78 - Dayton 70. Thornton had 21, Battle had 15.
Starters were Thornton, Gayle, Battle (Minnesota Transfer), Mahaffey (PSU transfer) and Okpara.
Was curious to see what Holtmann was going to do with the bigs and it looks like at least to start Zed Key is going to come off the bench (which is probably the correct thing to do IMO). Key really has slimmed down from what I can see--just on eye test it looks like he's down maybe 20-30 lbs.
Starters were Thornton, Gayle, Battle (Minnesota Transfer), Mahaffey (PSU transfer) and Okpara.
Was curious to see what Holtmann was going to do with the bigs and it looks like at least to start Zed Key is going to come off the bench (which is probably the correct thing to do IMO). Key really has slimmed down from what I can see--just on eye test it looks like he's down maybe 20-30 lbs.
Didn’t realize Battle transferred to OSU but good for him. He’s served his time in purgatory at Minnesota.
Come on, somebody has some more information about the scrimmage?
Mo, the only other thing I heard was that Freeman was held out as a precaution due to a minor ankle sprain.
This is right, except Payton is the one guarding opposing 4s in man-to-man. Have a feeling we see a fair amount of zone this year though. And so it's a moot point when Iowa zones since the 3&4 are interchangeable in Fran's offense. Both Patrick and Payton will post up some when they have smaller defenders.
The fact that he played in a scrimmage at all tells me that it's nothing serious.
Just finished watching Penn State @ Robert Morris from last night's exhibition. PSU won 68-58 but it was close with 3 minutes to go still. PSU didn't do anything abnormal with their rotations and played their starters real minutes. PSU pressed most of the game after makes--Robert Morris did not really struggle with it and it led to some open transition 3s. In fact, even in half-court offense Robert Morris was able to get a lot of open looks from exploiting PSU over-helping on drives. Offensively for PSU, they aren't a good shooting team--they shot 5/18 from 3 in this game and it's not like RM had a great perimeter defense. Qudus Wahab had 15 & 10 but a lot of that is just based off of RM having no one really to match his size--he looked exactly the same as he did at Maryland, a fine big bodied guy who has no offensive game outside of 5 feet.
Starters: Kanye Clary, Ace Baldwin, Nick Kern, Zach Hicks and Wahab. I'm assuming that when Puff Johnson is healthy he will slide into the lineup. Doesn't sound super optimistic that he will be ready for the season opener though.
Not really much surprising--PSU & Minnesota will likely be competing for the bottom of the standings.
A few great exhibitions today and tomorrow: Purdue @ Arkansas is happening now; tomorrow is Kansas @ Illinois and Tennessee @ MSU on BTN
Starters: Kanye Clary, Ace Baldwin, Nick Kern, Zach Hicks and Wahab. I'm assuming that when Puff Johnson is healthy he will slide into the lineup. Doesn't sound super optimistic that he will be ready for the season opener though.
Not really much surprising--PSU & Minnesota will likely be competing for the bottom of the standings.
A few great exhibitions today and tomorrow: Purdue @ Arkansas is happening now; tomorrow is Kansas @ Illinois and Tennessee @ MSU on BTN
Agree with you about PSU. They seemed to let their window pass them. Please let us know the outcome of these exhibition games. Much appreciated!
Purdue loses in OT to Arkansas. Minutes looked like a normal game distribution would. Similar issues with their guards and shooting as last year. 8/27 from 3 for the game and Purdue had 20 TOs. Kauffman-Renn and Lance Jones (incoming transfer) starting at the wings over Mason Gillis, Morton and Furst which is mildly surprising. Edey was in foul trouble for most of the game--Painter sat him for a while with 2 fouls in the first and he eventually fouled out. Arkansas is a good team with a lot of really athletic guys--that was what caused a lot of the turnovers. Just like last year when Braden Smith gets sped up, he tends to make some questionable decisions.
Both teams are still really good, so I wouldn't read too much into this. Though I do think that if I was a Purdue fan, I'd be a little nervous that Purdue is a bit "solved" and teams really know how to game plan against them. Will be interesting to see what adjustments Painter makes. Though I am not sure if any teams in the conference are quite as athletic as Arkansas is.
Both teams are still really good, so I wouldn't read too much into this. Though I do think that if I was a Purdue fan, I'd be a little nervous that Purdue is a bit "solved" and teams really know how to game plan against them. Will be interesting to see what adjustments Painter makes. Though I am not sure if any teams in the conference are quite as athletic as Arkansas is.
Indiana is playing at full health from what I can tell... 0/4 from 3 and only shooting 32% from the field at half. This roster was always going to need to win off of defense, but unless Mgbako and Galloway dramatically improve as shooters they are going to have weird spacing issues and struggle to score.
Indiana pulled away in the 2nd. They pressed and Indianapolis really struggled with it. Payton Sparks, Indiana's backup big rolled his ankle and went back into the locker room--wouldn't be surprised if he is out for a bit. They have so many front court pieces that they really don't need him until their game against UCONN in 3 weeks. Indiana is going to live in the midrange on offense this year.
Don't know if anyone else caught the BTN broadcast, but MSU-Tennessee was very fun; didn't feel like an exhibition game at all. MSU got hosed on a weird foul call right at the end of the game after Hoggard tied it with a 3 under 5 seconds to go. Tennessee made the FT and that ended the game basically.
Tennessee was down 2 starting guards but they look very deep. Might even be underrated at 9--Dalton Knecht (transfer from Northern Colorado) almost went to Indiana and I am so glad he didn't. He looked very good for Tenn. They were the #1 defensive team last year and I would expect them to be there again this year.
MSU had some turnover issues in the first half and they would have had some guys in foul trouble if this was a real game (both coaches agreed to not foul anyone out, but I believe Hall and maybe another were over 5). MSU is going to be really really good, but I do wonder if their front court will keep them from being elite. Sissoko and Hall both still haven't taken that next step IMO.
Kansas @ Illinois on deck--Bill Self's first return to Illinois since he left.
Tennessee was down 2 starting guards but they look very deep. Might even be underrated at 9--Dalton Knecht (transfer from Northern Colorado) almost went to Indiana and I am so glad he didn't. He looked very good for Tenn. They were the #1 defensive team last year and I would expect them to be there again this year.
MSU had some turnover issues in the first half and they would have had some guys in foul trouble if this was a real game (both coaches agreed to not foul anyone out, but I believe Hall and maybe another were over 5). MSU is going to be really really good, but I do wonder if their front court will keep them from being elite. Sissoko and Hall both still haven't taken that next step IMO.
Kansas @ Illinois on deck--Bill Self's first return to Illinois since he left.
Illinois beats Kansas by 7. They looked really good tonight IMO. Coleman Hawkins and TSJ were hitting open 3s and I thought Quincy Guerrier (Oregon transfer) looked really good out there as well. Domask looked good again too. Illinois is going to be a very good defensive team again.
Watched the first half of both Wisconsin and Northwestern's games tonight. Obviously the caveats that these are exhibitions applies--I think we can all understand that.
Wisconsin:
I think they'll be good, but the offense needs to run through Storr first. Wisconsin saw what the Chucky Hepburn show was last year after Wahl got hurt and it wasn't good. Storr honestly looked really, really good out there. Defense looks like it'll be a nuisance again, and I was pleasantly surprised to see Wisconsin run a bit in transition O. I think Hepburn, Storr and Wahl are 3 really good transition guys.
Starters were: Hepburn, Storr, Klesmit, Wahl, Crowl. Essegian and Winter were first 2 off the bench and I thought Winter looked exactly like another annoyingly good stretch 5 white guy that Wisconsin always seems to reload on.
Northwestern:
I'm kind of pressing the panic button on this team and they still won by 20. Boo Buie is probably the best pure PG in the conference. Nicholson is a perfectly serviceable 5 man in the conference. That said, Barnhizer is probably the smallest 4 man in the conference, which on a team that's identity last year was winning with a top 25 defense I'm not sure that really gels. Langborg is a significantly worse defender than Audige and I'm not sure his shooting will actually make up for what they lose on that end of the court. And Ty Berry is still a low percentage, high volume shooter that he was last season. He shot 2/9 from 3 in the first half and most of them were wide open looks. The other big piece to this, is their bench looks BAD. Like, I don't think Preston and Mullins are Big Ten caliber guys they brought in via the portal. And Collins only went 7 deep in the first half which indicates to me they are very shallow.
All that said, last year they were a mediocre offensive team and a very good defensive team. I think this year they are still a mediocre offensive team but a mediocre defensive team as well. Boo is incredible--he's maybe my favorite non-Iowa player in the conference. But I don't know if they can get back to the tournament this year unless he goes and has an All-American level year. Maybe I'm overreacting and I'll look back on this post and look like an idiot, who knows.
Wisconsin:
I think they'll be good, but the offense needs to run through Storr first. Wisconsin saw what the Chucky Hepburn show was last year after Wahl got hurt and it wasn't good. Storr honestly looked really, really good out there. Defense looks like it'll be a nuisance again, and I was pleasantly surprised to see Wisconsin run a bit in transition O. I think Hepburn, Storr and Wahl are 3 really good transition guys.
Starters were: Hepburn, Storr, Klesmit, Wahl, Crowl. Essegian and Winter were first 2 off the bench and I thought Winter looked exactly like another annoyingly good stretch 5 white guy that Wisconsin always seems to reload on.
Northwestern:
I'm kind of pressing the panic button on this team and they still won by 20. Boo Buie is probably the best pure PG in the conference. Nicholson is a perfectly serviceable 5 man in the conference. That said, Barnhizer is probably the smallest 4 man in the conference, which on a team that's identity last year was winning with a top 25 defense I'm not sure that really gels. Langborg is a significantly worse defender than Audige and I'm not sure his shooting will actually make up for what they lose on that end of the court. And Ty Berry is still a low percentage, high volume shooter that he was last season. He shot 2/9 from 3 in the first half and most of them were wide open looks. The other big piece to this, is their bench looks BAD. Like, I don't think Preston and Mullins are Big Ten caliber guys they brought in via the portal. And Collins only went 7 deep in the first half which indicates to me they are very shallow.
All that said, last year they were a mediocre offensive team and a very good defensive team. I think this year they are still a mediocre offensive team but a mediocre defensive team as well. Boo is incredible--he's maybe my favorite non-Iowa player in the conference. But I don't know if they can get back to the tournament this year unless he goes and has an All-American level year. Maybe I'm overreacting and I'll look back on this post and look like an idiot, who knows.
Good report on the Badgers. Next Friday’s game with Tennessee will be a much better indicator of how they are playing.
First one to 65 wins; that is going to be a defensive grinder. Really wish Fran would schedule a home-and-home series like that and the Arizona one that Badgers got. Wisconsin's non-con schedule is wild--3 preseason top-15 teams + @ Providence and an MTE with Virginia and West Virginia. The first week of December is absolutely wild--Marquette at home, @ Michigan St and @ Arizona all in a 7 day stretch.
If Wisconsin rolls into January at like 9-3 I think fans should be thrilled with that.
BirdistheWord
HR Heisman
I have only seen the quincy game (which was funny as they had THREE players from my town - Frisco, TX), but here are my thoughts on the rotation/estimated minutes:
Bowen: I was disappointed, he seemed to look a step slow and was not generating much offense. I think he needs a little rope but feel like he will end up not finishing many games. 15-16 minutes or so per game.
PMac: I have been pleasantly surprised at how efficient he has been. There will be games that are poor match ups but seem him being a steady presence. 22-25 minutes per game.
Saucey-P: We will desperately need his grit, toughness and Q4 play. 30-32 minutes per game.
Krikke: I was underwhelmed with his athleticism, kind of looks like an over 40 mens Rec player. But he seems tough and efficient. We will need his savvy and big body. 22-25 minutes.
Payton: Didn't play great but we will need his shooting and hustle. 25-30 minutes.
Pryce: Wow, he looked sharp and we cannot have enough great 3 point shooters. Could be a little redundant with Payton, but see him playing 13-16 minutes. He is neck and neck with Freeman on biggest impact freshman.
Dix: Really coming along nicely. Very serviceable at the point, but do like him as a wing. Probably 20-22 minutes.
Dembele: Love his defense and rebounding, tons of upside. 9-12 minutes.
Freeman: I predict biggest role for freshman. Big, athletic, skilled, high motor and plays both ends well. 16-18 minutes. Starter by mid season?
Harding: Great find, true point guard that has that amazing knack for finding others for buckets. Seems small, needs to add some muscle. Will have a role, but more limited 10-12 minutes.
The minutes are rough and do not include the longer tail of players like Brauns, etc.
Bowen: I was disappointed, he seemed to look a step slow and was not generating much offense. I think he needs a little rope but feel like he will end up not finishing many games. 15-16 minutes or so per game.
PMac: I have been pleasantly surprised at how efficient he has been. There will be games that are poor match ups but seem him being a steady presence. 22-25 minutes per game.
Saucey-P: We will desperately need his grit, toughness and Q4 play. 30-32 minutes per game.
Krikke: I was underwhelmed with his athleticism, kind of looks like an over 40 mens Rec player. But he seems tough and efficient. We will need his savvy and big body. 22-25 minutes.
Payton: Didn't play great but we will need his shooting and hustle. 25-30 minutes.
Pryce: Wow, he looked sharp and we cannot have enough great 3 point shooters. Could be a little redundant with Payton, but see him playing 13-16 minutes. He is neck and neck with Freeman on biggest impact freshman.
Dix: Really coming along nicely. Very serviceable at the point, but do like him as a wing. Probably 20-22 minutes.
Dembele: Love his defense and rebounding, tons of upside. 9-12 minutes.
Freeman: I predict biggest role for freshman. Big, athletic, skilled, high motor and plays both ends well. 16-18 minutes. Starter by mid season?
Harding: Great find, true point guard that has that amazing knack for finding others for buckets. Seems small, needs to add some muscle. Will have a role, but more limited 10-12 minutes.
The minutes are rough and do not include the longer tail of players like Brauns, etc.
Just a quick check-in on Nebraska 4 days out from their season opener:
- Juwan Gary is out due to suspension (rumor is weed)
- Matar Diop and "a few others" have strep throat and haven't practiced this week
- Joshua Allick might miss the opener to make sure his knee is fully healthy,
- Rienk Mast might miss opener due to a broken nose and the shock of being assaulted while riding a scooter downtown
- Blaise Keita is out indefinitely while being plagued by the same ankle issues that bothered him last year
- Kesei Tominaga is in a walking boot this week after rolling his ankle in an exhibition and is unlikely to play the opener
- Ahron Ulis is of course suspended indefinitely due to the gambling investigation
Minnesota 45 - Macalester 36 Halftime.
Starters: Garcia, Ola-Joseph, Ihnen, Carrington, Hawkins. Bench: Mitchell and Fox first off. No Payne tonight who will start.
3/11 from 3, 51% from the field and perfect at the line.
Not going to rag on them too much, but they cannot lose as many 50/50 balls as they have tonight against a D1 opponent and expect to be better this year--Minnesota doesn't have the talent to be getting out hustled. Surprisingly, I actually thought their transition O was pretty effective. This was especially true when they went smaller with JOJ at the 4. I have my eye on Hawkins once the season starts--he's fast, but tiny and he was a 40+% 3 point shooter last year at Howard; shot 2/4 in the first half tonight. Macalester obviously isn't big and physical enough for his size to be an issue tonight, so will be curious how he looks going forward, but might be a better add than I gave them credit for. Garcia falls in love way too much with the midrange for my liking, but he's good. If they're going to be a team that surprises some and gets to the NIT, they are needing Sophomore breakouts from Ola-Joseph and Payne and they need one of Hawkins or Mitchell to be a real shooting threat at the Big Ten level. I'm doubtful, but we should know more in 2 weeks when Minnesota hosts Mizzou at the Barn.
Starters: Garcia, Ola-Joseph, Ihnen, Carrington, Hawkins. Bench: Mitchell and Fox first off. No Payne tonight who will start.
3/11 from 3, 51% from the field and perfect at the line.
Not going to rag on them too much, but they cannot lose as many 50/50 balls as they have tonight against a D1 opponent and expect to be better this year--Minnesota doesn't have the talent to be getting out hustled. Surprisingly, I actually thought their transition O was pretty effective. This was especially true when they went smaller with JOJ at the 4. I have my eye on Hawkins once the season starts--he's fast, but tiny and he was a 40+% 3 point shooter last year at Howard; shot 2/4 in the first half tonight. Macalester obviously isn't big and physical enough for his size to be an issue tonight, so will be curious how he looks going forward, but might be a better add than I gave them credit for. Garcia falls in love way too much with the midrange for my liking, but he's good. If they're going to be a team that surprises some and gets to the NIT, they are needing Sophomore breakouts from Ola-Joseph and Payne and they need one of Hawkins or Mitchell to be a real shooting threat at the Big Ten level. I'm doubtful, but we should know more in 2 weeks when Minnesota hosts Mizzou at the Barn.
Thanks for these reports and great analysis. A few teams are bringing back more than Iowa, which makes the Hawks one of the wildcards IMO. I hope Fran figures out a rotation that really involves the freshmen, and maybe breaks up the initial front line, which isn't going to cut it on the defensive end.
Michigan looked a little better than I expected, but they also played a D2 program that only had 2 total wins last season, so it's really tough for me to read too much into things.
Starters: Dug McDaniel, Nimari Burnett, Terrence Williams, Olivier Nkamhoua, Tarris Reed. Bench: Tray Jackson, Will Tschetter and George Washington III
First half, McDaniel and Burnett combined for 5/7 from 3 and they both looked very comfortable. Those 2 are going to have the ball in their hands on offense a ton. Nkamhoua doesn't seem like someone that should be a first option on offense--he's not really a shot hunter. He will benefit a lot if Dug and Burnett can create for him a bit and draw some attention away from him. Tarris Reed looks big and physical and a bit more comfortable in the post now that he's not sharing the court with Dickinson.
Biggest issue with this team is depth. Jackson is a nice depth option that is a mild surprise he wasn't starting over Williams. Llewelyn still hasn't been cleared for full contact yet from the ACL tear but I think the hope is that he will be cleared by Thanksgiving. Until then GW3 is their only other guard apart from McDaniel and Burnett. They need both of their starting guards to stay healthy or it's going to be a long season. If this team had Caleb Love I think they would have been good, but I still think they are a guard short.
Starters: Dug McDaniel, Nimari Burnett, Terrence Williams, Olivier Nkamhoua, Tarris Reed. Bench: Tray Jackson, Will Tschetter and George Washington III
First half, McDaniel and Burnett combined for 5/7 from 3 and they both looked very comfortable. Those 2 are going to have the ball in their hands on offense a ton. Nkamhoua doesn't seem like someone that should be a first option on offense--he's not really a shot hunter. He will benefit a lot if Dug and Burnett can create for him a bit and draw some attention away from him. Tarris Reed looks big and physical and a bit more comfortable in the post now that he's not sharing the court with Dickinson.
Biggest issue with this team is depth. Jackson is a nice depth option that is a mild surprise he wasn't starting over Williams. Llewelyn still hasn't been cleared for full contact yet from the ACL tear but I think the hope is that he will be cleared by Thanksgiving. Until then GW3 is their only other guard apart from McDaniel and Burnett. They need both of their starting guards to stay healthy or it's going to be a long season. If this team had Caleb Love I think they would have been good, but I still think they are a guard short.
Week from today:
#15 Texas A&M @ Ohio State
#7 Tennessee @ Wisconsin
Dayton @ Northwestern
Davidson v Maryland (neutral)
We should know a lot more about those 4 teams next Friday.
#15 Texas A&M @ Ohio State
#7 Tennessee @ Wisconsin
Dayton @ Northwestern
Davidson v Maryland (neutral)
We should know a lot more about those 4 teams next Friday.
What's Better? What's Worse? What's The Same?
A comprehensive 2023-24 Big Ten basketball preview
theb1gpicture.substack.com
Really good, in-depth preview for the season. One of the best previews I've read so far this year (and I've read a lot).
Very good analysis.
What surprised me the most were the shooting percentages against us in the B1G. OMG.
What surprised me the most were the shooting percentages against us in the B1G. OMG.
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