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New Story Iowa MBB vs Michigan State (PREVIEW + GAME THREAD)

RossWB

HR Heisman
Staff
Feb 1, 2006
5,958
3,352
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WHO: Michigan State Spartans (17-10, 9-7 Big Ten)
WHEN: 11:01 AM (Saturday, February 25)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: ESPN (Kevin Brown and Robbie Hummel)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin and Bobby Hansen) | XM 195 or SXM 957
MOBILE: www.espn.com/app
ONLINE: www.espn.com/watch
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -4.5
KENPOM: Iowa -2 (57% chance of winning)

PROJECTED STARTING FIVE​

Iowa
G Tony Perkins (11.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.4 bpg, 42.1 FG%, 29.1 3FG%)
G Ahron Ulis (6.8 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 2.4 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.1 bpg, 40.5 FG%, 31.3 3FG%)
F Connor McCaffery (6.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.0 bpg, 39.6 FG%, 33.7 3FG%)
F Kris Murray (20.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.2 bpg, 49.5 FG%, 34.2 3FG%)
F Filip Rebraca (13.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.5 spg, 1.1 bpg, 57.4 FG%, 33.3 3FG%)

Michigan State
G AJ Hoggard (12.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 5.8 apg, 0.9 spg, 0.3 bpg, 41.3 FG%, 29.0 3FG%)
G Tyson Walker (14.0 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.3 bpg, 44.8 FG%, 41.7 3FG%)
F Jaden Akins (8.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.3 bpg, 39.9 FG%, 39.0 3FG%)
F Jody Hauser (13.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.9 apg, 0.4 spg, 0.2 bpg, 47.3 FG%, 42.2 3FG%)
C Mady Sissoko (5.3 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.3 spg, 0.8 bpg, 58.1% FG, 0.0 3FG%)

PREVIEW​

Is the explanation for Iowa basketball this season really as simple a theory as: great at home, terrible on the road?

Obviously, the results of the last few weeks provide a lot of evidence to support that theory. Iowa is 7-0 at home since January 1, and in consecutive home games over the last few weeks, the Hawkeyes won going away against Northwestern, edged Illinois in a back-and-forth thriller, then blasted Ohio State off the court.

Meanwhile, Iowa has gone 1-3 in their last four road games, with the only winning coming in a very ugly game over a very bad Minnesota team. The other three losses were by an average of 15 points and featured some of Iowa's most abysmal shooting of the season.

If things are truly that simple for Iowa in 2023 -- home good, road bad -- then that's a positive for Iowa for the next eight days. Iowa plays two of its final three regular season games at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, which looks like an opportunity* to climb out of this current slump.

*Iowa will need to actually make shots in an arena that's not Carver-Hawkeye Arena in order to keep its season alive in March, but that's not a "now" problem.

Three-point shooting has been the biggest difference between Iowa's home and road performances, especially lately. The Hawkeyes have hit double-digit three-pointers in three of their last four home games (10 versus Ohio State and Northwestern, 12 versus Rutgers) — and the outlier, the 81-79 win over Illinois, featured a respectable 7/19 performance from deep.

Meanwhile, Iowa has hit 16 three-pointers -- combined -- over the last four road games. The abject haplessness of the last two road outings barely needs another mention, but there's no running from 11.5%, going 3/24 at Northwestern and 3/28 at Wisconsin.

This particular game does at least present a real test for the theory, as Michigan State has an excellent three-point defense. The Spartans rank 14th nationally and tops in the Big Ten in defending the three-point line, as Big Ten opponents have only been making 27.7% of their three-point attempts against MSU this season. Iowa failed to connect at even that rate in the first game against MSU this season; the Hawkeyes made 3/17 (17.6%) of their threes in East Lansing last month. How much of that was Iowa's inability to hit 3s on the road and how much was MSU's strong perimeter defense? We may find out on Saturday.

MORE HERE: https://iowa.rivals.com/news/preview-iowa-mbb-vs-michigan-state

Really big game for Iowa. If home court can't fix the shooting woes and this turns into a 3-game losing streak, it could be hard to keep the season from steering into a ditch.
 
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