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the truth about climate change

well you are from ottumwa so who knows what other crazy shit that they think there. i am in my early 40's and was never told anything like this in school.
I got a whole bunch of crap we were told and I'm thinking about writing a book about it, I may just do that, you missed out if you were in your early 40's and never heard all the crap they were selling us, but then again, we had a bunch of looney toons teachers who were probably high on the farm chemicals. almost every teacher I ever had got up at 4 am and worked on the farm before they drove into town to work as a teacher in Ottumwa.

By the time I hit the seventh grade, the mind control was on. Full swing. We had this hippy liberal lady from TX of all places showing us films of folks clubbing seals to death and talking about us ruining the environment with farming.
 
You could have just said, you like neat websites and pretty pictures and left it at that.
The agenda, then, is politically expedient? I've been here a long time and Joe and FSUreed are the smartest people on this subject by far. Why won't you listen to them? What motive do they have? Are they running for office? Or are they telling you, quite simply, that as a species we are ruining the planet, and must change? That's the explain like I'm five part. Why do you refuse to listen to people who have spent their lives studying it? If a guy comes over and fixes your computer, would you argue about processors? No, because you have no idea how it works, but have a lot of ideas about it should work. I don't understand that mentality and probably never will. You specifically seem like the "I got mine, screw everyone else" crowd. Reexamine your religion and morality. I'm an atheist and volunteer for animals in need. I don't get paid for it. I do it because I have the time and they need the help. According to you, they should just die.
 
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The agenda, then, is politically expedient? I've been here a long time and Joe and FSUreed are the smartest people on this subject by far. Why won't you listen to them? What motive do they have? Are they running for office? Or are they telling you, quite simply, that as a species we are ruining the planet, and must change? That's the explain like I'm five part. Why do you refuse to listen to people who have spent their lives studying it? If a guy comes over and fixes your computer, would you argue about processors? No, because you have no idea how it works, but have a lot of ideas about it should work. I don't understand that mentality and probably never will. You specifically seem like the "I got mine, screw everyone else" crowd. Reexamine your religion and morality. I'm an atheist and volunteer for animals in need. I don't get paid for it. I do it because I have the time and they need the help. According to you, they should just die.

Do you have science to back that up or are you confusing an opinion with science, like your fellow Obamabots often do?
 
Do you have science to back that up or are you confusing an opinion with science, like your fellow Obamabots often do?
I promise you that Joe and FSUreed have all the science you'll ever need. The problem is, you won't acknowledge it.
 
I promise you that Joe and FSUreed have all the science you'll ever need. The problem is, you won't acknowledge it.
I'll let them. I've read their posts many times. They know what they are talking about. If you would like to present different opinions on climate change and ocean acidification, I'd be happy to read it
 
the problem with thinking humans are a species that can ruin the planet is this: to stop that species from ruining the planet, and thus saving the planet, to do this one must kill off the species. that's a problem.
 
So, we still have no scientific basis for humans causing global warming or global cooling.
 
the problem with thinking humans are a species that can ruin the planet is this: to stop that species from ruining the planet, and thus saving the planet, to do this one must kill off the species. that's a problem.
That is pretty absolute. Isn't a better solution to curb our insatiable desire for more money? Like, my kids can earn on their own. I don't need eleventy billion dollars to maintain my legacy, such as it is. This constant need for more money is a sickness. It's a disease. It's an addiction, created by this experiment called unfettered capitalism. Fortified by popular culture. You can watch people being murdered in the most disgusting way, but show a pair of tits....
 
The agenda, then, is politically expedient? I've been here a long time and Joe and FSUreed are the smartest people on this subject by far. Why won't you listen to them? What motive do they have? Are they running for office? Or are they telling you, quite simply, that as a species we are ruining the planet, and must change? That's the explain like I'm five part. Why do you refuse to listen to people who have spent their lives studying it? If a guy comes over and fixes your computer, would you argue about processors? No, because you have no idea how it works, but have a lot of ideas about it should work. I don't understand that mentality and probably never will. You specifically seem like the "I got mine, screw everyone else" crowd. Reexamine your religion and morality. I'm an atheist and volunteer for animals in need. I don't get paid for it. I do it because I have the time and they need the help. According to you, they should just die.


Thx, man.

And for the mouthbreathers here:

All anyone has to do is go read those graphs. Is the decadal average temperature at 1995 equal to the data point at 2010 (those are the 'center points' for the decadal averages, as the 2010 point averages temperatures between June 2006 and May 2015). Are those points equal on ANY of the graphs you can generate for YOURSELF on that site?

Try using the UAH data, which is generated by noted AGW-critic Roy Spencer (Huntsville Alabama) and Senator Inhofe's best climate buddy.

Even HIS data shows no 15 or 18 year hiatus!!! MAYBE 3 or 4 years, max.

(Unless you are not smart enough to determine the difference between +0.2 and -0.14.) [Hint: 0.2 - (-0.14) = +0.34]
In fact, his data show a smaller dip than 1990-1995. So, before just 'parroting' some media pundit about a climate warming 'hiatus', perhaps you should go look at the datasets and judge the veracity of their statements for yourself....

mean:52


Roy Spencer UAH data, using the decadal average and 'stacked means' method recommended by Judy Curry's website.
 
Translation: When I agree with someone's political bent that makes them an expert in all fields.
Listen man, I know you've been around for awhile. I am telling you that joe and fsureed always bring the facts. Always. In fact, I don't know how they are on social issues, nor could I give a shit. This goes beyond that. They are telling you, professionals mind you, that this is not sustainable.

They are paid to do this stuff. Why is that so hard to understand? Suppose you had hail damage. You'd hire a guy off the street, or the guy who knows how to repair hail damage? I don't think you're necessarily stupid, but you sure come off that way
 
We have a political/economic basis. If you want power over others, tell people the world is ending and you're the only one who can fix it.

Leftist science = far right religion
I'd really like to know what leftist science is. Is that the science that says the sun runs around the earth? Or is is just science, as Joe as provided.
 
Well BJ Dickman made that pretty easy. "We're commies and we're here to kill freedom and the good life to satisfy our control fetish."
Name calling now champ? I got over that 30 years ago. You'll have to try harder. Joe has provided the information. What part of that don't you understand? Are you unable to read a simple graph? It makes sense now. Provide another source and I'll have a look. Strangely, I don't think that is going to happen, but allow the opportunity.
 
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Name calling now champ? I got over that 30 years ago. You'll have to try harder. Joe has provided the information. What part of that don't you understand? Are you unable to read a simple graph? It makes sense now. Provide another source and I'll have a look. Strangely, I don't think that is going to happen, but allow the opportunity.

Come on, you know your moniker sets you up every time you post. Don't act like you're not a masochist. After all, you love the idea of the world coming to an end. It helps you sell your admitted agenda.
 
"Terrific"???

It's simply loaded with disinformation, innuendo and false comparisons.

Let's focus on the 'no warming for the past 15 years'. This is a myth that the result of 'cherry picked' dates, and can be shown to be completely untrue when using a scientifically valid approach to looking at the data.

This website has several global temperature datasets that you can enter in your own timeframes, filtering ranges, etc to observe the data for yourself:

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/

This site lets you interactively create your plots, and then you can link those data plots directly, which is really pretty cool.

Looking at the HADCRUT4 global temperature series, the way you can actually see trends is by running an averaging filter to smooth out the noise, which often hides true trends.

Here is HADCRUT4 global mean without ANY running filter:

hadcrut4gl


The amount of seasonal and annual variation creates a rather big mess and it becomes difficult for the human eye/brain to see trends.

To make trend-spotting easier, you can run a 10-year (decadal) average (just boxcar 120 months of data together), but this can often create misleading inversions at certain points along the plot. Instead, you run 2 or 3 sub-decadal averaging filters that 'sum up' to the 120 months (e.g. 29, 39, 52 months averages) in sequence, and you eliminate the 'local inversions' which often skew the information over short time frames. (FWIW, Judith Curry has a website and page which details this method. Yes, the Judith Curry who is the AGW 'skeptic').

Here is that link, where the 'local errors' that smoothers create are described:

http://judithcurry.com/2013/11/22/data-corruption-by-running-mean-smoothers/

Here is what the HADCRUT4 data looks like with the decadal averaging (each data point represents one month of data, so 120 points = 10 years):

none


If we 'zoom in' from 1980 on, you can see what the past decade really looks like:

from:1980


The green line uses the 'simple' decadal average, which just uses the single running filter - this creates the misleading inversions that Curry explains are artifacts of that method, and are not a good averaging method. The red line uses sequential running mean filters that 'add up' to a decadal filter, but to a better job of showing the true local trends. The red line uses the method recommended by Curry's site.

It is quite easy to see from this plot that we have, AT MOST, a 5-year hiatus in warming (red line). The green line (using the method Curry does NOT recommend) is even worse (because this method generates local inversions and biases that are 'not real', but an artifact of the filtering)

The reason the graph only runs to 2010 is because the data point for that decadal average (2005-2015) is plotted at the 2010 data point. Since we don't have data points out to 2020 yet, we will not know what the 2015 decadal average data point looks like until 2020. But it is quite easy to see that there is nothing CLOSE to any '15 year' or '18 year' hiatus. A '15 year hiatus' means that the data point on the running mean for 1995 is 'equal to' the data point at 2010. It is not remotely close.

Look at the running graph from the 1880's on; there is simply nothing close to a 'recent hiatus' in the data yet; at least nothing that is a deviation any bigger than anywhere else along the historical record. You can find a 'hiatus' just about as long from 1989 to 1995....

Go visit the site and look at the data for yourself. Make your own plots, using running means.
If you want a decadal averaging filter, use mean ranges of 29, 39, 52 in sequence. If you want a 'true' 17 year running mean, use 49, 66, 88.

Here is the GISTEMP dT global mean dataset, using the same decadal filter:

mean:52


Again, no 'hiatus'. You can look at the BEST dataset, MSS, UAH etc and you cannot identify clear hiatus trends in any global datasets (note that some datasets are 'land only' and thus only represent 30% of the full temperature dataset for all of the Earth).

There are countless other fallacies and errors in that article, too many to debunk in one post.
That is a wonderful example that backs up what was said in the article.....which I wonder if you actually read. Are you aware, for instance, that the author thinks the climate is warming and human activity is in part responsible?

As to your data hemorrhage.......it is interesting that you are a denier of the warming hiatus. The pro-warming alarmists seem to have fallen into two groups. The first has gone to considerable lengths to explain why the lack of warming in recent years is consistent with the theory of AGW; the second simply changes the criteria and declares that there has been no hiatus.

All the while, of course, both groups ridicule and deride anyone who asks simple questions, or even anyone who asks for scientists to use accepted scientific methods consistently.

Which was what the article was about. You really should read it.
 
Come on, you know your moniker sets you up every time you post. Don't act like you're not a masochist. After all, you love the idea of the world coming to an end. It helps you sell your admitted agenda.
Evidently, you're the only one who knows my agenda. As to my moniker, yes, I've been around awhile, but I'm pretty certain I'm in a better place with TK then you. LOL. Please tell me my agenda LOL. I'm certainly a narcassist, but I never considered you. Ever.
 
Why not give me the highlights, I'm learning disabled
It's a very long article. There isn't much in it about AGW per se. It's mostly about the way science has been perverted, and the scientific community's integrity threatened, by some of the stuff the AGW alarmists have pulled.

The author believes that the Earth is warming, and that human activity is in part responsible. He does not believe the facts justify claims that we are in crisis or nearly so.

He cites a number of instances where people who asked for information, or questioned something, were attacked; he goes through the "hockey stick" scam again; he points out that even the IPCC posits a wide range of possibilities, but the alarmists (and most of the media) insist on paying attention only to the most extreme scenarios.

He also cites instances where this kind of thing has happened in the scientific community before, in some cases going back nearly a century.
 
It's a very long article. There isn't much in it about AGW per se. It's mostly about the way science has been perverted, and the scientific community's integrity threatened, by some of the stuff the AGW alarmists have pulled.

The author believes that the Earth is warming, and that human activity is in part responsible. He does not believe the facts justify claims that we are in crisis or nearly so.

He cites a number of instances where people who asked for information, or questioned something, were attacked; he goes through the "hockey stick" scam again; he points out that even the IPCC posits a wide range of possibilities, but the alarmists (and most of the media) insist on paying attention only to the most extreme scenarios.

He also cites instances where this kind of thing has happened in the scientific community before, in some cases going back nearly a century.

Oh it's happened many times over the centuries. Science was a subsidiary of religion for thousands of years. Finally, just when science has broken free from the bonds of religion, the leftists want to return it to a subordinate position. With the new SUPER-POPE being whoever is running collectivism.
 
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Hhhhhmmm. Follow the money.
A good thing to always remember . In the pseudo science of climate change scientists are not chasing the truth, their chasing funding. That's mostly on the green side. In the End it's about government attaining more money and more power. This does both in spades
 
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A good thing to always remember . In the pseudo science of climate change scientists are not chasing the truth, their chasing funding. That's mostly on the green side. In the End it's about government attaining more money and more power. This does both in spades
You should look into the money closer. The piggy bank is all on your side if this issue.
 
The agenda, then, is politically expedient? I've been here a long time and Joe and FSUreed are the smartest people on this subject by far. Why won't you listen to them? What motive do they have? Are they running for office? Or are they telling you, quite simply, that as a species we are ruining the planet, and must change? That's the explain like I'm five part. Why do you refuse to listen to people who have spent their lives studying it? If a guy comes over and fixes your computer, would you argue about processors? No, because you have no idea how it works, but have a lot of ideas about it should work. I don't understand that mentality and probably never will. You specifically seem like the "I got mine, screw everyone else" crowd. Reexamine your religion and morality. I'm an atheist and volunteer for animals in need. I don't get paid for it. I do it because I have the time and they need the help. According to you, they should just die.
I've known Reed as a poster for a long time and I know he skews his posts to one side pretty far as an advocate, but unless his opinion has changed its actually not that far off from mine. I am not a denier, I just don't think the issue is as black and white as it gets played out and both sides use misinformation to attempt to fortify their view. I don't know jack about Joe, and you don't know jack about me. You have no idea what I know or have studied. It probably seems to you like I'm advocating against mans role in the climate, but I'm only advocating for honesty and the scientific method. I agree with others that less pollution is a good thing no matter what, but I disagree with the hysteria, which promotes actions which may in fact be harmful to humanity, economy, and even the environment we are trying to protect. I too am an Athiest and I too have volunteered my time, labor and tens of thousands of dollars to protect and rescue animals as well as clean up our estuaries and oceans.

My problem with climate change alarmists is that they have come to be no different than religious fanatics and the article makes some very good points to that effect. It doesn't mean we should just forget about it and go on with the status quo, it just means we should not shortcut the scientific method and create or misrepresent a supposed consensus when it isn't there. Climatology in its current form is a very young science. It's not like physics or chemistry or anthropology which are long established and mature. In my opinion it's not off to a very good start. I guess the others weren't either, but they are past that stage now. We need to remove the two party system from science and get the politics out of it or it's probably gonna wind up bad no matter who is right. I'd bet everything I have that both sides are wrong anyway.
 
I've known Reed as a poster for a long time and I know he skews his posts to one side pretty far as an advocate, but unless his opinion has changed its actually not that far off from mine. I am not a denier, I just don't think the issue is as black and white as it gets played out and both sides use misinformation to attempt to fortify their view. I don't know jack about Joe, and you don't know jack about me. You have no idea what I know or have studied. It probably seems to you like I'm advocating against mans role in the climate, but I'm only advocating for honesty and the scientific method. I agree with others that less pollution is a good thing no matter what, but I disagree with the hysteria, which promotes actions which may in fact be harmful to humanity, economy, and even the environment we are trying to protect. I too am an Athiest and I too have volunteered my time, labor and tens of thousands of dollars to protect and rescue animals as well as clean up our estuaries and oceans.

My problem with climate change alarmists is that they have come to be no different than religious fanatics and the article makes some very good points to that effect. It doesn't mean we should just forget about it and go on with the status quo, it just means we should not shortcut the scientific method and create or misrepresent a supposed consensus when it isn't there. Climatology in its current form is a very young science. It's not like physics or chemistry or anthropology which are long established and mature. In my opinion it's not off to a very good start. I guess the others weren't either, but they are past that stage now. We need to remove the two party system from science and get the politics out of it or it's probably gonna wind up bad no matter who is right. I'd bet everything I have that both sides are wrong anyway.
Exactly what I've been saying for years. Exactly what the linked article says. But to the AGW fundamentalists, it's like waving a cartoon of Muhammed in front of a jihadist.
 
That is a wonderful example that backs up what was said in the article.....which I wonder if you actually read. Are you aware, for instance, that the author thinks the climate is warming and human activity is in part responsible?

As to your data hemorrhage.......it is interesting that you are a denier of the warming hiatus.

How am I a 'denier' of the hiatus, when I'm showing you the data, which shows no such "15 year" or "18 year" or whatever 'hiatus'?
Can you go view those plots of various global temperature data, including Roy Spencer's own group, and point out where there is such a 'hiatus'?

Because the properly smoothed data simply do not show it. Thus, this claim by the author of that Op Ed is a complete Red Herring. Can we admit that and move onto the litany of other false claims in that article? Or if you cannot acknowledge a basic piece of factual evidence, is it not worth my time to debate this with you?
 
Climatology in its current form is a very young science. It's not like physics or chemistry or anthropology which are long established and mature.

FYI - most of the fundamentals of 'climatology' are foundationally rooted in well-established physics and chemistry. So, if you want to 'throw out' climate science as 'too new to believe', you really are throwing out several core tenets of physics and chemistry in the process. For instance, the greenhouse effect is basic physics and chemistry and has been known and understood fundamentally for over 100 years. Yet, we still have deniers to claim that is all part of a Great Worldwide Scientific Conspiracy.
 
I've known Reed as a poster for a long time and I know he skews his posts to one side pretty far as an advocate, but unless his opinion has changed its actually not that far off from mine. I am not a denier, I just don't think the issue is as black and white as it gets played out and both sides use misinformation to attempt to fortify their view. I don't know jack about Joe, and you don't know jack about me. You have no idea what I know or have studied. It probably seems to you like I'm advocating against mans role in the climate, but I'm only advocating for honesty and the scientific method. I agree with others that less pollution is a good thing no matter what, but I disagree with the hysteria, which promotes actions which may in fact be harmful to humanity, economy, and even the environment we are trying to protect. I too am an Athiest and I too have volunteered my time, labor and tens of thousands of dollars to protect and rescue animals as well as clean up our estuaries and oceans.

My problem with climate change alarmists is that they have come to be no different than religious fanatics and the article makes some very good points to that effect. It doesn't mean we should just forget about it and go on with the status quo, it just means we should not shortcut the scientific method and create or misrepresent a supposed consensus when it isn't there. Climatology in its current form is a very young science. It's not like physics or chemistry or anthropology which are long established and mature. In my opinion it's not off to a very good start. I guess the others weren't either, but they are past that stage now. We need to remove the two party system from science and get the politics out of it or it's probably gonna wind up bad no matter who is right. I'd bet everything I have that both sides are wrong anyway.

Both sides are wrong? I think you mean both sides don't have all the info because predicting the climate is much more complex than creating a computer model. And the right is the one acknowledging that truth. Also, the right is the only one not readjusting data years after the fact. Google NOAA readjusts their figures.
 
FYI - most of the fundamentals of 'climatology' are foundationally rooted in well-established physics and chemistry. So, if you want to 'throw out' climate science as 'too new to believe', you really are throwing out several core tenets of physics and chemistry in the process. For instance, the greenhouse effect is basic physics and chemistry and has been known and understood fundamentally for over 100 years. Yet, we still have deniers to claim that is all part of a Great Worldwide Scientific Conspiracy.
I'm well aware of that and that's not the claim I made. Stop trying to make this a black and white us vs them scenario.
 
Both sides are wrong? I think you mean both sides don't have all the info because predicting the climate is much more complex than creating a computer model. And the right is the one acknowledging that truth. Also, the right is the only one not readjusting data years after the fact. Google NOAA readjusts their figures.
I mean the truth lies somewhere in between. Did you forget the rest of my post when you got to that part?
 
I mean the truth lies somewhere in between. Did you forget the rest of my post when you got to that part?
You certainly don't represent yourself that way. Debate with facts, not talking points. I promise you, answers will follow from Joe or FSU. Give them some data to refute them. Otherwise STFU. These guys are experts on climate. Are you? Or is the echo chamber so loud you can't see the forest for the trees? Sorry for the mixed metaphor, but you wouldn't understand the nuance anyways.
 
Evidently, you're the only one who knows my agenda. As to my moniker, yes, I've been around awhile, but I'm pretty certain I'm in a better place with TK then you. LOL. Please tell me my agenda LOL. I'm certainly a narcassist, but I never considered you. Ever.

Work on that grammar tard.
 
Since I'm not going to read every response on my phone, forgive me if this has been asked. But for all of that use some sort of variation of "follow the money" in denying and sort of change in the climate or environment, let me ask you this. Could you not also say the same about those who are hard core against it being real and are economically motivated to doing everything they can to show it's not?

And yes, I'm talking Big Oil and Big Ag here, since they are the ones with the most to lose.
 
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You certainly don't represent yourself that way. Debate with facts, not talking points. I promise you, answers will follow from Joe or FSU. Give them some data to refute them. Otherwise STFU. These guys are experts on climate. Are you? Or is the echo chamber so loud you can't see the forest for the trees? Sorry for the mixed metaphor, but you wouldn't understand the nuance anyways.
So are these experts on the government payroll?
 
How am I a 'denier' of the hiatus, when I'm showing you the data, which shows no such "15 year" or "18 year" or whatever 'hiatus'?
Can you go view those plots of various global temperature data, including Roy Spencer's own group, and point out where there is such a 'hiatus'?

Because the properly smoothed data simply do not show it. Thus, this claim by the author of that Op Ed is a complete Red Herring. Can we admit that and move onto the litany of other false claims in that article? Or if you cannot acknowledge a basic piece of factual evidence, is it not worth my time to debate this with you?
Please present a united front first. I have said countless times, and will say again now, that I do not have the training or knowledge to make any determination about the validity of the science. My opinions and statements have been strictly limited to the tactics of the AGW alarmists. The current (reported) hiatus in warming was greeted by a significant number of them with (1) the acceptance that it was correct, and (2) an explanation of how the hiatus can be explained in the context of their warming theory.
 
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