I don’t know enough about Iowa’s delegation to Congress…Trump will still take Iowa but any chance a few down ballot races could flip?
It's the Selzer poll, so it's the grade A gold standard poll. If accurate, I think the Presidential poll represents backlash against extremist one party MAGA Republican control of the state. Iowa has never had to deal with this before, Republicans here unlike in other solid Red States have always had to contend with the possibility of being thrown out of office if they went too radical. Reynolds and the Republicans in the legislature over the last several years have acted as if they have permanent control over the state and have acted without restraint.
Democrats are trying very hard to flip Iowa 1 (my district and includes Iowa City), we've been getting saturation TV commercials from Dem Christina Bohannan and next to nothing from Repub Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Ratio of TV ads is probably 90% Bohannan to 10% Meeks although it's possible that Meeks has given up on the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City Media Market and is concentrating on Davenport (the other TV market in this district). The problem with Bohannan is the general problem with Democrats, the campaign is timid/wimpy and she's doing the same thing as two years ago, trying to run on out-of-touch lobbyist controlled Meeks rather than taking the Republicans head-on with their MAGA bullshit.
Miller-Meeks had a far-right Republican challenger in the primary so had to run on pro-MAGA bullshit, including an ad that invoked Caitlin Clarke in an anti-trans spot that was very controversial and may have a backlash effect into the general election.
But if Trump only wins Iowa by 4 pts, the Dems will probably flip this seat. They can also potentially flip Iowa 2 which includes Polk County (Des Moines). Ashley Hinson in Iowa 3 (Waterloo and Cedar Rapids) is probably safe. And Iowa 4 is Steve King's old district and is like a rural Nebraska/Kansas solid red district.
In the long term, I still think Republicans may have problems in Iowa 10 yrs plus down the road. Rural Iowa continues to empty out and the two fastest growing counties in the state are Johnson (Iowa City) and Polk (Des Moines). I know it seems like Iowa City picks up at least one house legislative seat after every census. But I guess who knows what the future political landscape is going to look like after 2030.
It seems like Republicans may have gone too far in this state and may face some consequences this year, but we'll see.
