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“Significant” Trump Slippage in Iowa Presidential Race….

It's the Selzer poll, so it's the grade A gold standard poll. If accurate, I think the Presidential poll represents backlash against extremist one party MAGA Republican control of the state. Iowa has never had to deal with this before, Republicans here unlike in other solid Red States have always had to contend with the possibility of being thrown out of office if they went too radical. Reynolds and the Republicans in the legislature over the last several years have acted as if they have permanent control over the state and have acted without restraint.

Democrats are trying very hard to flip Iowa 1 (my district and includes Iowa City), we've been getting saturation TV commercials from Dem Christina Bohannan and next to nothing from Repub Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Ratio of TV ads is probably 90% Bohannan to 10% Meeks although it's possible that Meeks has given up on the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City Media Market and is concentrating on Davenport (the other TV market in this district). The problem with Bohannan is the general problem with Democrats, the campaign is timid/wimpy and she's doing the same thing as two years ago, trying to run on out-of-touch lobbyist controlled Meeks rather than taking the Republicans head-on with their MAGA bullshit.

Miller-Meeks had a far-right Republican challenger in the primary so had to run on pro-MAGA bullshit, including an ad that invoked Caitlin Clarke in an anti-trans spot that was very controversial and may have a backlash effect into the general election.

But if Trump only wins Iowa by 4 pts, the Dems will probably flip this seat. They can also potentially flip Iowa 2 which includes Polk County (Des Moines). Ashley Hinson in Iowa 3 (Waterloo and Cedar Rapids) is probably safe. And Iowa 4 is Steve King's old district and is like a rural Nebraska/Kansas solid red district.

In the long term, I still think Republicans may have problems in Iowa 10 yrs plus down the road. Rural Iowa continues to empty out and the two fastest growing counties in the state are Johnson (Iowa City) and Polk (Des Moines). I know it seems like Iowa City picks up at least one house legislative seat after every census.

It seems like Republicans may have gone too far in this state and may face some consequences this year, but we'll see.
Your description seems pretty close to how I view it...just a slight correction...Hinson is District 2.
 
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Your description seems pretty close to how I view it...just a slight correction...Hinson is District 2.
Whoops! Iowa 3 is Des Moines, you're correct! Corkery is a distant cousin of mine in Iowa 2 and I would like her to win but I don't think it's happening.
 
I dont know if I would be considered a single issue voter, but if you are ok with abortion at will and the ending of innocent human life then you are disqualified to lead.
There is a huge amount of grey area in this statement. Does this mean an outright ban in abortion at every week? Or is 6 weeks ok? 12 weeks, 20 weeks? What about severe medical complications in the third trimester?
 
I know, I know, this is not to be taken as proof that Trump is in trouble but in my travels last two weeks, the lack of Trump yard signs in rural North FL and South GA, that 8 and 4 years ago were everywhere, is very very interesting. Not sure you all are seeing the same thing there in Iowa. To me it tells me for sure something has changed - the people who proudly voted for him in the past two elections are now embarrassed to admit it this year. Will translate into lower passion and numbers at poll booth. And maybe not voting for him for some of those that do.
 
I live in Waukee (Dallas County and west DSM suburbs) and in 2020 it was 50% Trump & 48% Biden. I just said to another person yesterday that you see very little to zero yard signs (even driving out west) where in 2020 you saw a lot of Trump yard signs. Either this means people will vote for him but are embarrassed to put a sign up or will vote for Harris. Not sure which one it will be but I don’t think Iowa will go blue but the tide has shifted some.
 
There is a huge amount of grey area in this statement. Does this mean an outright ban in abortion at every week? Or is 6 weeks ok? 12 weeks, 20 weeks? What about severe medical complications in the third trimester?
I believe in the heartbeat bill personally. I also am ok with it in cases of rape and the health of the mother. I don't agree with it necessarily but it's a fair compromise imo. If your heart is beating you are alive.
 
If Harris wins, I hope your wives, daughters and granddaughters enjoy getting to dress, shower and compete with men and boys pretending to be women. $5.00 a gallon gas and abortions at all stages of development will be the norm. Harris says her first order of business will be to lower the cost of goods in America. Why do they have to wait for that?
The imaginary radio in your head is on again lol.
 
I haven't seen
I believe in the heartbeat bill personally. I also am ok with it in cases of rape and the health of the mother. I don't agree with it necessarily but it's a fair compromise imo. If your heart is beating you are alive.
The heart becomes fully formed at 17-20 weeks. So there?
 
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I dont know if I would be considered a single issue voter, but if you are ok with abortion at will and the ending of innocent human life then you are disqualified to lead.
Okay.

So you have very strong opinions against abortion.

I don’t agree with your position, but I respect you value what you do. I, and no one else, has the right to tell you your values are wrong.

I just disagree with it strongly.
 
No. I would never vote for anyone who doesn't respect innocent human life. I will not vote this year.
Vice President Harris actually respects innocent life. Hence why she wants laws that helps prevent women from dying in childbirth, or young girls having their lives ruined by a child conceived in rape, etc. one can understand why the government should not get involved in this issue, while still disagreeing with some abortions. Nor is it considered life in the Jewish Torah until a breath is taken outside the womb, so there is a religious exception. Let God judge. We don’t need an authoritarian fascist government meddling in EVERY aspect of our lives.
 
Just saw on Ch. 8 that the newest released Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Trump’s lead over Harris is 47 to 43. That is much smaller than the advantage Trump enjoyed over Joe Biden several weeks ago.
If this is a poll conducted by Ann Selzer, it is certainly newsworthy. Selzer is pretty much the gold standard when it comes to measuring Iowans and their politics.

HORT repubbers all appear to be broken and off the rails. MAGA may finally be losing steam. 8 years too late.
 
I heard at produce stands. Get a free abortion with the purchase of a bag of apples.
How about with slim Jim's?

Magats
1. Gas prices are the lowest in three years and heading down.
2. Inflation is the lowest in three years.

Bodes well for orange syphilis and couch fk'r.

@DooBi You're alright by me. Hope you're keeping well.
 
It's the Selzer poll, so it's the grade A gold standard poll. If accurate, I think the Presidential poll represents backlash against extremist one party MAGA Republican control of the state. Iowa has never had to deal with this before, Republicans here unlike in other solid Red States have always had to contend with the possibility of being thrown out of office if they went too radical. Reynolds and the Republicans in the legislature over the last several years have acted as if they have permanent control over the state and have acted without restraint.

Democrats are trying very hard to flip Iowa 1 (my district and includes Iowa City), we've been getting saturation TV commercials from Dem Christina Bohannan and next to nothing from Repub Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Ratio of TV/radio ads is probably 90% Bohannan to 10% Meeks although it's possible that Meeks has given up on the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City Media Market and is concentrating on Davenport (the other TV market in this district). The problem with Bohannan is the general problem with Democrats, the campaign is timid/wimpy and she's doing the same thing as two years ago, trying to run on out-of-touch lobbyist controlled Meeks rather than taking the Republicans head-on with their MAGA bullshit.

Miller-Meeks had a far-right Republican challenger in the primary so had to run on pro-MAGA bullshit, including an ad that invoked Caitlin Clarke in an anti-trans spot that was very controversial and may have a backlash effect into the general election.

But if Trump only wins Iowa by 4 pts, the Dems will probably flip this seat. They can also potentially flip Iowa 2 which includes Polk County (Des Moines). Ashley Hinson in Iowa 3 (Waterloo and Cedar Rapids) is probably safe. And Iowa 4 is Steve King's old district and is like a rural Nebraska/Kansas solid red district.

In the long term, I still think Republicans may have problems in Iowa 10 yrs plus down the road. Rural Iowa continues to empty out and the two fastest growing counties in the state are Johnson (Iowa City) and Polk (Des Moines). I know it seems like Iowa City picks up at least one house legislative seat after every census. But I guess who knows what the future political landscape is going to look like after 2030.

It seems like Republicans may have gone too far in this state and may face some consequences this year, but we'll see.
Selzer will have the Congressional updates in the coming days so we’ll have a better idea. To comment on IA 3 since I live in Waukee, while Baccam is a good candidate, it’s going to be very difficult to beat Nunn. Nunn has good name recognition and will clean up in rural areas.
I live in Waukee (Dallas County and west DSM suburbs) and in 2020 it was 50% Trump & 48% Biden. I just said to another person yesterday that you see very little to zero yard signs (even driving out west) where in 2020 you saw a lot of Trump yard signs. Either this means people will vote for him but are embarrassed to put a sign up or will vote for Harris. Not sure which one it will be but I don’t think Iowa will go blue but the tide has shifted some.
For Waukee, I’m worried about the state senate race. Mark Hanson’s signs are EVERYWHERE. It would be a damn shame if Sarah lost. She’s a great compassionate rep.
 
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I know, I know, this is not to be taken as proof that Trump is in trouble but in my travels last two weeks, the lack of Trump yard signs in rural North FL and South GA, that 8 and 4 years ago were everywhere, is very very interesting. Not sure you all are seeing the same thing there in Iowa. To me it tells me for sure something has changed - the people who proudly voted for him in the past two elections are now embarrassed to admit it this year. Will translate into lower passion and numbers at poll booth. And maybe not voting for him for some of those that do.


I noticed this as well recently as I have been traveling across rural western iowa. I saw more than a few farms & houses that had yard signs for every republican candidate except for Trump.
 
Okay.

So you have very strong opinions against abortion.

I don’t agree with your position, but I respect you value what you do. I, and no one else, has the right to tell you your values are wrong.

I just disagree with it strongly.

I strongly disagree with your statement. Heartbeat bill are wrong, and the group of people that support and advance them are wrong.

It is through their desires women across the country have lost rights and will continue to navigate an unnecessarily chaotic environment when it comes to reproductive healthcare.
 
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Some people. S IL and there are still a number of folks that fly their Trump flags. Even with all the stupidity.

"He is still better than the lawyer lady!" <no he isn't>

Yeah, MAGA is lost. They'll need reprogramming once Trump is out of the picture for good.

I'm talking about the people who maybe even vote GOP most of the time but aren't in the cult. All three of my BiLs voted for Trump in 16/20, none of them are this time and all are ready for him to be out of politics for good.

It's funny, all three have, essentially, asked "When did he become nuts?" My response "About 1974, too many people ignored the crazy for too long"
 
Sorry, the racist lies and fear tactic bullshit is getting tiresome. His lead is crumbling in Iowa because we see firsthand who immigrants are, and we like what they bring. We don’t like how the Republican Party is slipping towards white supremacist fascism. We don’t like how MAGA hates American ideals. How your brand of “Conservative” conserves nothing of the values we grew up with in Iowa. Maybe you should move to Hungary where that’s more acceptable.
 
I strongly disagree with your statement. Heartbeat bill are wrong, and the group of people that support and advance them are wrong.

It is through their desires women across the country have lost rights and will continue to navigate an unnecessarily chaotic environment when it comes to reproductive healthcare.
Oh, I absolutely agree with you that legislation passed with the intent of restricting a woman’s healthcare rights and autonomy over her own body is wrong.

I’m simply saying to doobi I respect the fact that he has those convictions and don’t feel right about telling him he is wrong to feel that way since he views it as protecting the life of a baby. Just because I think he’s misguided in that belief doesn’t mean I can’t respect him for what he believes is right.

The whole issue is Roe v Wade should have never been overturned because now it allows states like Texas to persecute women.
 
Yeah, MAGA is lost. They'll need reprogramming once Trump is out of the picture for good.

I'm talking about the people who maybe even vote GOP most of the time but aren't in the cult. All three of my BiLs voted for Trump in 16/20, none of them are this time and all are ready for him to be out of politics for good.

It's funny, all three have, essentially, asked "When did he become nuts?" My response "About 1974, too many people ignored the crazy for too long"
Trump being Trump!

And I really think there has been an MSM "sane-washing" effect. "Liberal" media--more like "both sides" media.
 
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I strongly disagree with your statement. Heartbeat bill are wrong, and the group of people that support and advance them are wrong.

It is through their desires women across the country have lost rights and will continue to navigate an unnecessarily chaotic environment when it comes to reproductive healthcare.
"Reproductive healthcare"
 
Sorry, the racist lies and fear tactic bullshit is getting tiresome. His lead is crumbling in Iowa because we see firsthand who immigrants are, and we like what they bring. We don’t like how the Republican Party is slipping towards white supremacist fascism. We don’t like how MAGA hates American ideals. How your brand of “Conservative” conserves nothing of the values we grew up with in Iowa. Maybe you should move to Hungary where that’s more acceptable.


What MAGA doesn't understand (because they are racist) is that demonizing immigrants purely for existing is racist.

Notice, they don't demonize Europeans who came here on a work visa and overstayed (there are thousands of those). They demonize people who came here on refugee or asylum status to get away from horrific circumstances. Why? Because those people came from SE Asia, Central Africa or Latin America. White conservatives think they are better than any of them because "those" people aren't white conservatives.
 
Trump being Trump!

And I really think there has been an MSM "sane-washing" effect. "Liberal" media--more like "both sides" media.

Dead serious. The 1st example where I remember thinking "WTF is this dude doing?" was when he pushed the other USFL owners to sue the NFL. Why? Because he desperately wanted in their club and they wouldn't let him in. He thought he could force his way in.
 
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