If Fran had stayed, I am confident that we would have still lost Freeman and Dix. Probably Harding as well, IMHO. For the sake of argument, let's assume everyone else stayed. So the starting lineup would have looked something like this:
PG: Portal player TBD
SG: Pryce
SF: Joshua Lewis
PF: Traore
C: Dembele
You can assume that Fran would have hit the portal for help, particularly at PG. With revenue sharing available, he would have more money to work with; yet his track record at recruiting the portal is what it is. So you can expect his starting PG to be somewhere between Bakari Evelyn and Drew Thelwell, in terms of ability. Perhaps serviceable, but not particularly strong.
I'm willing to assume he also might have landed JT Power, who followed Fran to Penn. The one-time 5-star recruit has averaged a combined 1.7 points and 0.9 rebounds in two seasons at Duke and Virginia, so I don't think he'd be particularly impactful for Iowa. But maybe he could be a contributor.
So, comparing position to position:
- Bennett Stirtz vs. an unknown portal player -- massive advantage Stirtz
- Brendan Hausen vs. Pryce Sandfort -- strong advantage Hausen
- Tavion Banks (or Cooper Koch) vs. Joshua Lewis -- modest advantage to Banks/Koch (I was never sold on Lewis)
- Cam Manyawu vs. Seydou Traore -- clear advantage to Manyawu. Love Traore's athleticism, but Manyawu has the skills
- Alvaro Fulgueiras vs. Ladji Dembele -- strong advantage to El Pulpo. Both a little undersized, but Alvaro has way more upside
Bench:
- Combs, Howard, Banks/Koch, Jirak, Sage(?)
- Koch, Tadjo, Power, Kingsbury, Johnson-Arigu, Diakite, Briscoe, perhaps another portal PG
This is the only area where I might give the advantage to Fran's guys, if only for the numbers. Both teams lack depth at PG.
As the OP said, this takes a little imagination and guesswork. But this is where I landed.