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Analysis: Is Iowa good enough Defensively to win a National Championship? On March14, Per KenPom: Offensive efficiency: #2; Defensive efficiency: #50

* On average, teams that win the national title rank in the top ten of adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tournament.

* Last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.

@TheTruthTheWholeTruth or anybody else: Any idea what our defensive efficiency rating is?

Here is our offensive efficiency:

 
@TheTruthTheWholeTruth or anybody else: Any idea what our defensive efficiency rating is?

Here is our offensive efficiency:


Currently at 73

It really feels like our ceiling is around 60 but I’m still seeing overall improvements over last year, namely Defensive EFG% in the top 50. We’d really be talking if Iowa could clean up giving up so many offensive rebounds
 
Currently at 73

It really feels like our ceiling is around 60 but I’m still seeing overall improvements over last year, namely Defensive EFG% in the top 50. We’d really be talking if Iowa could clean up giving up so many offensive rebounds
And interior d. The guards need to help down when opponents throw the ball over Luka.
 
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* On average, teams that win the national title rank in the top ten of adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tournament.

* Last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.

Currently at 73

It really feels like our ceiling is around 60 but I’m still seeing overall improvements over last year, namely Defensive EFG% in the top 50. We’d really be talking if Iowa could clean up giving up so many offensive rebounds

 
Great thread. In my humble opinion, Iowa has to focus on improving that D every time out. See what the Fr. and Joe T. can give you. Iowa has to rebound better on D that is a fact. I have always hated the zone that left the corner 3 open, I would love to know what % teams shot against Iowa from the corner 3. I agree Iowa should use more fouls wisely to set the tone. Garza is the only guy I would try to protect. Here is a crazy thought, Iowa is so good on O that they don't need to shot fast because it actually hurts your D. In some years the early shot is the best shot you get, well Iowa is so good they have the luxury to pass it up and still get a great look. Bo Ryan is the best I ever saw figuring out every possesion matters. Don't turn it over or take shots that put your D at a disadvantage. I think Iowa should try to play more man because they don't disrupt or create turnovers but it would help prevent more easy looks and make rebounding easier. Defend the lane better, take away the easy buckets in the lane and make the looks from 3 harder. That is my "moneyball" approach.
 
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Play more JoeT over JBo and defense improves and JoeT cleans up on loose balls.

Play more keegan over Connor at 4 and defense a little and rebounding improves a lot.

Go two bigs with Nunge and Garza and the rebounding matches up with nearly anyone... Fran to his credit has assembled a lot of different levers to use this year.
 
Defensively vs Gongaza, Iowa:

* Gave up 99 points

* Was -11 in Rebounding (49-38)

* Gave up 16 offensive rebounds

* Defended the 3 poorly (GU was 13-26 from 3)

* Allowed GU to shoot 51.4% from the field
 
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Defensively vs Gongaza, Iowa:

* Gave up 99 points

* Was -11 in Rebounding (49-38)

* Gave up 16 offensive rebounds

* Defended the 3 poorly (GU was 13-26 from 3)

* Allowed GU to shoot 51.4% from the field
The rebounding and Defensive FG% was exposed....

IOWA did ‘win‘ the 2nd half, and I’m guessing the minutes will,prove out the bigger lineup I’d better...
 
Just lots of problems defensively. Go 2 bigs and if we try to play man both bigs get put in the spin cycle. Suggs obviously a problem for anyone and everyone. Patrick is obviously a work in progress but damn, as a coaches kid you would think he would have some idea on defense. He does not. He might be worse than JBO on defense. This is another reason Touissant needs more minutes. We have plenty of scoring. I’ll live with a few turnovers and such. We missed a ton of 3’s and free throws and still scored 88. Have to find a way to be better on defense.
 
Until they commit to defense, it'll be rough. Seth Davis sounded almost sad when he said that if only Iowa played better defensively they would be tough. (Paraphrasing). :)

part of the problem is lack of talent on that end. There is only so much you can scheme. Guys like Bohannon, Frederick, and even Wieskamp just are not good at containing dribble penetration. The struggle to stay in front of ball handlers which necessitates help and open things up elsewhere.

Hawkeyes have an elite offense that stresses opponents inside and out. Unfortunately they struggle inside and out on the other end. Almost wonder if a passive zone that packs inside and dares opponents to shoot jumpers would be preferable given the personnel.
 
Until they commit to defense, it'll be rough. Seth Davis sounded almost sad when he said that if only Iowa played better defensively they would be tough. (Paraphrasing). :)

Is it possible to “commit to defense” and play Bohannon more than 10-15 minutes per game (or even less)? I don’t think so. Wisconsin is committed to defense, and passed on J Bo because he lacks the athleticism to be even a mediocre Big Ten defender. Fran bet on J Bo’s offense, and has been rewarded for his decision. But so long as J Bo is a main cog, it is not possible to be committed to defense.
 
Is it possible to “commit to defense” and play Bohannon more than 10-15 minutes per game (or even less)? I don’t think so. Wisconsin is committed to defense, and passed on J Bo because he lacks the athleticism to be even a mediocre Big Ten defender. Fran bet on J Bo’s offense, and has been rewarded for his decision. But so long as J Bo is a main cog, it is not possible to be committed to defense.
It is possible, as a team perhaps. In JBo's case, he lacks the quickness you need for sure. He's valuable to dish and shoot although his shooting lately is not good. His shooting will pick up, but as you say, defensively he is not that good. Joe T at point might be a good move at this juncture.
 
Until they commit to defense, it'll be rough. Seth Davis sounded almost sad when he said that if only Iowa played better defensively they would be tough. (Paraphrasing). :)
Iowa was averaging 100 points per game coming into today.

crazy that we needed that 100 again today in order to win by 1 point.

yikes.....
 
It is possible, as a team perhaps. In JBo's case, he lacks the quickness you need for sure. He's valuable to dish and shoot although his shooting lately is not good. His shooting will pick up, but as you say, defensively he is not that good. Joe T at point might be a good move at this juncture.

I would encourage folks to watch this breakdown of Iowa's defense against Gonzaga. There are limitations due to physical ability, but the mistakes here are high school level. This is stunningly bad. Iowa should be embarrassed by the effort shown in transition defense. If that is going to be the effort, no way a conference title or deep tourney run are coming.

 
if you wanna beat the good teams like Gonzaga & do things like win a B1G title & a National Championship, you gotta be elite defensively & offensively.

See the tweet at the end of this post. This is not elite defense.

As you can see:

* 21 straight bad losses (because of bad defense) over 3 seasons.

* 7 bad losses (because of bad defense), on average, over those 3 seasons.


Check it out:

 
if you wanna beat the good teams like Gonzaga & do things like win a B1G title & a National Championship, you gotta be elite defensively & offensively.

I've been as pessimistic about Iowa's defense as anybody heading into this season, but it's important to stay realistic. Iowa is certainly capable of beating good teams "like Gonzaga" with their defense as mediocre as it is. I mean simply having a big offensive game can still win a shootout. They could even win a Big Ten title with mostly middling defense if they happen to have big offensive games at the right time, although considering how tough the conference is that is a much tougher ask. Winning a national title obviously tougher unless you can get it together on both ends, but Iowa's offense certainly good enough to win some games in the tourney because even then you can still get some fortunate matchups.


It would greatly help Iowa if they could improve their defense, but even if it doesn't improve they can still have a very good season.
 
I've been as pessimistic about Iowa's defense as anybody heading into this season, but it's important to stay realistic. Iowa is certainly capable of beating good teams "like Gonzaga" with their defense as mediocre as it is. I mean simply having a big offensive game can still win a shootout. They could even win a Big Ten title with mostly middling defense if they happen to have big offensive games at the right time, although considering how tough the conference is that is a much tougher ask. Winning a national title obviously tougher unless you can get it together on both ends, but Iowa's offense certainly good enough to win some games in the tourney because even then you can still get some fortunate matchups.


It would greatly help Iowa if they could improve their defense, but even if it doesn't improve they can still have a very good season.
i just think that if you are having a off shooting day/night (which happened vs GU & will happen again), what should not be off is your effort on defense.

And by effort on defense, I mean:
* Rebounding (GU had 16 offensive rebounds)
* Getting back on D (GU had how many dunks & layups?)
* Getting the 50/50 balls (did Iowa get any?)
 
Iowa isn't going to be good defensively(meaning kenpom top 30). They just aren't. They lack the athletes all across the lineup to pull that off.
BUT, they could be respectable (say kenpom 50-60) even with their limitations.
How they get there is the million dollar question.
As a fan of offense, they are usually a blast to watch. I don't want to lose that offensive minded, push the ball, fire away scoring mentality.
It comes down to getting just a few more stops a game. Maybe half a dozen or so possessions.
 
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I've been as pessimistic about Iowa's defense as anybody heading into this season, but it's important to stay realistic. Iowa is certainly capable of beating good teams "like Gonzaga" with their defense as mediocre as it is. I mean simply having a big offensive game can still win a shootout. They could even win a Big Ten title with mostly middling defense if they happen to have big offensive games at the right time, although considering how tough the conference is that is a much tougher ask. Winning a national title obviously tougher unless you can get it together on both ends, but Iowa's offense certainly good enough to win some games in the tourney because even then you can still get some fortunate matchups.


It would greatly help Iowa if they could improve their defense, but even if it doesn't improve they can still have a very good season.
We're not holding our breath for "a very good season."

We have our eye on a Great season. All this talk about #1 in the country and National Champs and Final Four...I don't think there's a chance with defense as poor as it is.

IMO, a great season would be Iowa making it to the Elite 8. I have no further expectations.
 
We're not holding our breath for "a very good season."

We have our eye on a Great season. All this talk about #1 in the country and National Champs and Final Four...I don't think there's a chance with defense as poor as it is.

IMO, a great season would be Iowa making it to the Elite 8. I have no further expectations.
we should make the Sweet 16

after that? i am not holding my breath because at that point the teams are really good & anything can happen (a bad shooting night; a buzzer beater loss; etc)
 
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A lot of teams play 4 guards and smaller lineups these days. It was a 6-5 guard for Gonzaga who got 18 rebounds on Saturday.
 
A lot of teams play 4 guards and smaller lineups these days. It was a 6-5 guard for Gonzaga who got 18 rebounds on Saturday.
Well, CJF has ripped down 5 boards this year, JoBo averages 2.2 boards for his career and JoeT has 8 in 7 games, so when any of these 2 are in game together it’s is 5 versus 3 IOWA guys and that contributes to why Iowa gets out rebounded.
 
Well, CJF has ripped down 5 boards this year, JoBo averages 2.2 boards for his career and JoeT has 8 in 7 games, so when any of these 2 are in game together it’s is 5 versus 3 IOWA guys and that contributes to why Iowa gets out rebounded.

I knew our guards' defensive numbers weren't anything to write home about, but yeeeesh. I get that rebounding isn't necessarily a priority for guards, but they can at least try and get in a position to limit open 3's. CJF is competent offensively, but not elite. He's not Allen Iverson, he's not elite enough offensively to overcome his lack of size or defense (he's listed at 6'3 but that's at least an inch too big). Optimally, a quality 2-guard is a legit 6'4 or 6'5. Having more length can make a difference, especially on defense.
 
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We're not holding our breath for "a very good season."

We have our eye on a Great season. All this talk about #1 in the country and National Champs and Final Four...I don't think there's a chance with defense as poor as it is.

IMO, a great season would be Iowa making it to the Elite 8. I have no further expectations.
I consider a Elite 8 potentially part of a very good season. Final Four somewhat just luck of the draw. The best team in the country is generally less than 50/50 to make the Final 4.

I mean think about that. The overall #1 seed usually slightly under 50% at making it to Final 4. Hard to be too sad if any particular team doesn’t make it.

In terms of the tourney all you can do is get a top 3 or 4 seed and hope fortune shines on you.
 
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