Let's break it down this way.
Raridon; Newsome; Farniok; Honas - these are just some of the head-to-head battles where Debby has come out on top. If they continue to crater not only do we get a leg up in the recruiting battles, but our position as the superior program gets strengthened.
Connie can still lose a couple elsewhere. Is that likely? Probably not. But consider: they do play PSU/Mich/NW - so it's a possibility. Of course, that means we can't lose and that's asking a lot. But in the scenario I've outlined Iowa gets a maximum benefit.