At $100k and moving forward to $200k, I do think the miners with a good balance sheet and/or are developing a viable HPC product for the AI industry, are better plays. It's going to be much easier for say $CLSK to move from $8 to $16 than $BTC to go from $90k to $180k. I think $IREN is insanely undervalued in the latter class.
You might be correct. All I know about mining is that I can't easily or affordably do it myself (or I would), and I would tend to favor miners that have access to low cost electricity. That's problematic for me. Using a Canadian company as an example. Their reporting requirements differ from US publicly traded companies, and they waste no time reorganizing when it is in their favor.
When I look for shorter term percentage gains I turn to options for speculation (in addition to my hedging). Volatility has been largely predictable until recently. BTC has been moving today, but I might be caught in a bull trap on calls right now. BTC can trade sideways for long periods of time. The easy money was pre election. Everyone who had a clue knew Trump was going to win, and BTC was going to go up. At least they should have.
I'm really fairly conservative. Even my speculation is conservative because I use derivatives. I think maybe the next easy trade might be short natural gas. I could bore you with my reasons.
Generally I don't trade. I have traded around the last three elections. Elections have proven to be profitable for me. 2016 VIX calls most of the night, then short Brent and WTI. 2020 VIX calls and then long Brent and WTI. During the Biden administration I thought the natural gas pricing didn't match up with fundamentals and I shorted natural gas for a very large gain. 2024 I traded went long BTC calls prior to the election, traded VIX election night, quickly shorted oil, and am now wondering if we have the same natural gas news sensationalized that doesn't match gas in storage 5 year average.
The reason I don't trade that much any more is that is impossible to compete against a super computer. I use IB and have access to dark pools, can disguise my orders (algos, etc) and I still say this. Because there are darker pools retail investors can't get to. If I can't see true market depth, volume and transparent pricing I know I shouldn't be playing in that arena.
I use futures selectively. I like the fact I can at least access the COT reports (commitment of traders). Hedgers and institutions need to disclose their positions.
I also favor longer term speculative positions. LEAPs. Obviously more expensive and need to have the capacity to keep feeding the trade. The Biden administration short natural gas trade is an example of that. It went on a long time and I was down and had to keep averaging down until it paid off. Somewhere in there lost use of capital needs to be factored in.
eta, and the two bozos on here are still arguing with me about Russian energy revenue and oil and think they are right. Like I don't know and like I don't put money where my mouth is.
