Baseball Polls & RPI (5/15)

[BigOHawk]

Iowa team sheet:

(37-12, 13-7 in conf):
RPI: 30
Non conf RPI: 24
SOS: 81
Non Conf SOS: 171

Quad Records:
Q1: 6-6
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 5-2
Q4: 17-2

 

[ssckelley]

I don't believe that there has ever been a regular season champion in the B1G who didn't receive a bid to the NCAA baseball tournament. Second place? Yes . . . happened to Rutgers last year.

Maryland is currently sitting in RPI purgatory. I certainly wouldn't want to be in their shoes if they win two of three this weekend and finish in the upper 40s RPI. If they aren't the B1G tournament champions, regular season champions and are behind Indiana, Iowa (fingers crossed) and Rutgers in RPI, they may be nibbling their fingernails awfully hard as the brackets are announced.

Since 2014, 14 of the 16 B1G teams that had RPIs in the 30s or 40s have played in a Regional. Rutgers last year (2nd place; RPI 43) and Michigan in 2016 (5th place; RPI 39) are the only exceptions.

And, since 2014, here are the number of B1G teams in the tournament:
'14 - 2
'15 - 5
'16 - 3
'17 - 5
'18 - 4
'19 - 5
'21 - 3
'22 - 2

For all practical purposes, the B1G getting only 2 teams into the tournament appears to be the exception and not the rule. In the last 8 tournaments, the B1G has gotten 3 teams in twice, 4 teams in once and 5 teams in three times.

My current thinking - barring a meltdown by Iowa this weekend - the B1G will get at least 3 teams in and a 4th team will be either one of the last 4 in/first 4 out. Maybe Rutgers gets some sympathy votes this year after getting shafted last year.

Wasn't sure if there has been one or not. I was stunned when Rutgers got left out last year. It felt like the committee already had the brackets done and when Michigan won the BTT they crossed out Rutgers and inserted Michigan instead of re-doing the process.

Maryland has 5 Q4 losses (Iowa has 2) that are killing their RPI. They really need a sweep at PSU next weekend to get a boost to their RPI. They will be a dangerous team in the BTT as they have a ton of firepower in their lineup but their pitching is suspect. Fingers crossed but pitching is Iowa's strength and typically is a huge advantage in a tournament situation.

These are 3 "cannot lose" games against Northwestern. Even though they are road games the Wildcats is a Q4 opponent. I think Iowa needs to sweep these 3 games in order to comfortably be in the regionals. The RPI is going to take a hit just playing Northwestern but any losses will be an even bigger blow.

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

IF we can sweep the Mildcats, I think we have a good case for a 2. And if we don’t (2 out of 3), winning the BTT should get us there also.

 

[ssckelley]

2 days ago d1Baseball.com had Maryland in as a 2 seed.

 

[BigOHawk]

2 days ago d1Baseball.com had Maryland in as a 2 seed.

Yep, saw that and was a little surprised, maybe others viewing them better than us. Also , a sweep over NW will still lose us about 5-7 RPI points total vs NW. Maybe we pray for rain?

 

[AuroraHawk]

IF we can sweep the Mildcats, I think we have a good case for a 2. And if we don’t (2 out of 3), winning the BTT should get us there also.

IF Iowa advances to the NCAA tournament, I’d rather have them be a #3 seed in a Regional with a lower seeded host than a #2 seed in a Regional with a higher seeded host.

 

[Birky]

IF Iowa advances to the NCAA tournament, I’d rather have them be a #3 seed in a Regional with a lower seeded host than a #2 seed in a Regional with a higher seeded host.

No question.

 

[Alum-Ni]

Updated original post with polls and RPI from 5/15

 

[AuroraHawk]

FWIW, Warren Nolan’s site shows that Iowa would have faced a (+14) / (-55) today if the UIC game remained on the schedule. With games on Thurs-Sat this week and potentially playing a B1G tournament on Tuesday (fingers crossed), the decision to cancel, conserve pitching and be ready for “all in” against NW is a solid one.

Also, WN’s “Predicted Results” for Iowa shows a win over UIC and Iowa sweeping NW and finishing with a RPI of 12. Head scratcher. Doesn’t seem possible. How can Iowa go from 30 to 12?

Boyd’s World site (RPI simulator) concludes that Iowa must win 1 game this weekend to finish in the top 45 of RPI but cannot finish in top 32 (even with a sweep). As Iowa is currently #30 and will likely lose RPI points even with wins, this seems to be a more realistic estimation: http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html

 

[BigOHawk]

FWIW, Warren Nolan’s site shows that Iowa would have faced a (+14) / (-55) today if the UIC game remained on the schedule. With games on Thurs-Sat this week and potentially playing a B1G tournament on Tuesday (fingers crossed), the decision to cancel, conserve pitching and be ready for “all in” against NW is a solid one.

Also, WN’s “Predicted Results” for Iowa shows a win over UIC and Iowa sweeping NW and finishing with a RPI of 12. Head scratcher. Doesn’t seem possible. How can Iowa go from 30 to 12?

Boyd’s World site (RPI simulator) concludes that Iowa must win 1 game this weekend to finish in the top 45 of RPI but cannot finish in top 32 (even with a sweep). As Iowa is currently #30 and will likely lose RPI points even with wins, this seems to be a more realistic estimation: http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html

100% Aurora, was listening to the pod last night with Kyle Huesmann and Iowa color radio guy and even with a NW sweep and a 4-0 BTT record I'm not sure Iowa can break 20 RPI (they were discussing a long shot of Iowa hosting regional...)

Hawks will most likely drop approx 5 RPI spots even with a NW sweep yet they will see some good RPIs in BTT. Remember, the NW series runs Thursday - Saturday!

 

[AuroraHawk]

Link: NCAA RPI (5/15)

20. Auburn (96)
21. Oklahoma State (78)
22. Campbell (68)
23. Tennessee (67)
24. North Carolina (59)
25. Connecticut (47)

26. North Carolina State (39)
27. Oregon State (31)
28. Southern Miss (20)
29. Indiana
30. Iowa
31. Texas (-15) - 3 games at home against #7 WVU
32. Washington (-15) - 3 games at home against Cal (84 RPI)
33. Northeastern (-38) - 3 games at home against Charleston (72 RPI)
34. Louisville (-58) - 3 games at home against Florida State (64 RPI)
35. Troy (-73) - 3 games at home against Appalachian State (100 RPI)
36. Georgia (-80) - 3 games at home against #4 LSU (5 RPI)
37. Missouri (-87) - 3 games at home against Auburn (20 RPI)
38. Oklahoma (-88) - 3 games at home against #22 Okie State (21 RPI)
39. Oregon (-98) - 3 games at Utah (141 RPI)
40. Texas A&M (-98) - 3 games at Miss State (44 RPI)
41. Texas Tech (-103) - 3 games at home against Kansas (111 RPI)

B1G Teams
---------------------------------
29. Indiana (0)
30. Iowa
49. Maryland (-181)
50. Rutgers (-187)
76. Michigan State (-388)
80. Illinois (-425)
110. Nebraska (-597)

124. Michigan (-669)

Building off of @Alum-Ni 's fantastic work, I've added how many points Iowa trails/leads on the current RPI ladder.

I added #26-28 to the list, #31-41 to the list and included all of the B1G teams currently qualifying for the B1G tournament.

Takeaways?
1. Iowa will likely be looking at (minus 7-10) / (minus 55 - 75) for its games against Northwestern. Yes, Iowa might get some help from other "Indirect Games" and teams ahead of it losing but there is little to no chance that Iowa actually gains ground.
2. If Iowa sweeps Northwestern (likely drop of 21 to 30 RPI points), there's a very good chance that it falls to no worse than 34-36 range.
3. If Iowa takes 2 of 3 against Northwestern (likely drop of 70-95 points), they could fall into the upper 30s or low 40s.
4. If Iowa sweeps Northwestern, it looks pretty clear to me that Iowa will finish no worse than 2nd in B1G for RPI (EDIT: regular season)
5. If Iowa takes 2 of 3 against Northwestern, there's a chance that Maryland could catch Iowa by sweeping @ PSU but it would be very close. However, I don't think that Rutgers could catch Iowa by sweeping @ Minnesota. (EDIT: not factoring in B1G tournament)
6. Last year, going into the B1G tournament, Iowa had a RPI of #61: Lost to #148 RPI PSU; Beat #135 RPI Purdue; Beat #148 RPI PSU; Beat #57 RPI Michigan; Lost to #57 RPI Michigan. Went from #61 to #60 to close out the season after a 3-2 B1G tournament. By contrast, Michigan was #77 going into the B1G tournament. Beat #13 Maryland; Lost to #61 Iowa; Beat #16 Iowa; Beat #43 Rutgers. Went from #77 to #61 at conclusion of B1G tournament. So . . some movement is possible based upon tournament results and opponents.
7. I get feeling that there are a lot of people who feel as though Iowa is now a "shoo in" for an at-large bid. While fans are certainly entitled to speculate and have that fun, I sure hope that the players are laser focused. There's work left to be done.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Wasn't sure if there has been one or not. I was stunned when Rutgers got left out last year. It felt like the committee already had the brackets done and when Michigan won the BTT they crossed out Rutgers and inserted Michigan instead of re-doing the process.

Maryland has 5 Q4 losses (Iowa has 2) that are killing their RPI. They really need a sweep at PSU next weekend to get a boost to their RPI. They will be a dangerous team in the BTT as they have a ton of firepower in their lineup but their pitching is suspect. Fingers crossed but pitching is Iowa's strength and typically is a huge advantage in a tournament situation.

These are 3 "cannot lose" games against Northwestern. Even though they are road games the Wildcats is a Q4 opponent. I think Iowa needs to sweep these 3 games in order to comfortably be in the regionals. The RPI is going to take a hit just playing Northwestern but any losses will be an even bigger blow.

Welp, it's Iowa baseball once again playing meaningful baseball games at the end of the season against a bad Northwestern team, soooo............................

 

[ICWestfan]

26. North Carolina State (39)
27. Oregon State (31)
28. Southern Miss (20)
29. Indiana
30. Iowa
31. Texas (-15) - 3 games at home against #7 WVU
32. Washington (-15) - 3 games at home against Cal (84 RPI)
33. Northeastern (-38) - 3 games at home against Charleston (72 RPI)
34. Louisville (-58) - 3 games at home against Florida State (64 RPI)
35. Troy (-73) - 3 games at home against Appalachian State (100 RPI)
36. Georgia (-80) - 3 games at home against #4 LSU (5 RPI)
37. Missouri (-87) - 3 games at home against Auburn (20 RPI)
38. Oklahoma (-88) - 3 games at home against #22 Okie State (21 RPI)
39. Oregon (-98) - 3 games at Utah (141 RPI)
40. Texas A&M (-98) - 3 games at Miss State (44 RPI)
41. Texas Tech (-103) - 3 games at home against Kansas (111 RPI)


124. Michigan (-669)

Building off of @Alum-Ni 's fantastic work, I've added how many points Iowa trails/leads on the current RPI ladder.

I added #26-28 to the list, #31-41 to the list and included all of the B1G teams currently qualifying for the B1G tournament.

Takeaways?
1. Iowa will likely be looking at (minus 7-10) / (minus 55 - 75) for its games against Northwestern. Yes, Iowa might get some help from other "Indirect Games" and teams ahead of it losing but there is little to no chance that Iowa actually gains ground.
2. If Iowa sweeps Northwestern (likely drop of 21 to 30 RPI points), there's a very good chance that it falls to no worse than 34-36 range.
3. If Iowa takes 2 of 3 against Northwestern (likely drop of 70-95 points), they could fall into the upper 30s or low 40s.
4. If Iowa sweeps Northwestern, it looks pretty clear to me that Iowa will finish no worse than 2nd in B1G for RPI.
5. If Iowa takes 2 of 3 against Northwestern, there's a chance that Maryland could catch Iowa by sweeping @ PSU but it would be very close. However, I don't think that Rutgers could catch Iowa by sweeping @ Minnesota.
6. Last year, going into the B1G tournament, Iowa had a RPI of #61: Lost to #148 RPI PSU; Beat #135 RPI Purdue; Beat #148 RPI PSU; Beat #57 RPI Michigan; Lost to #57 RPI Michigan. Went from #61 to #60 to close out the season after a 3-2 B1G tournament. By contrast, Michigan was #77 going into the B1G tournament. Beat #13 Maryland; Lost to #61 Iowa; Beat #16 Iowa; Beat #43 Rutgers. Went from #77 to #61 at conclusion of B1G tournament. So . . some movement is possible based upon tournament results and opponents.
7. I get feeling that there are a lot of people who feel as though Iowa is now a "shoo in" for an at-large bid. While fans are certainly entitled to speculate and have that fun, I sure hope that the players are laser focused. There's work left to be done.

God the RPI sucks. Neg points for winning is about the stupidest damn thing ever.

Reading all this RPI nonsense is aggravating to the nth degree. I do appreciate all the hard work everyone puts in around here, just so we CAN be aggravated.

 

[AuroraHawk]

Iowa team sheet:

(37-12, 13-7 in conf):
RPI: 30
Non conf RPI: 24
SOS: 81
Non Conf SOS: 171

Quad Records:
Q1: 6-6
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 5-2
Q4: 17-2

Good facts:

On weekends, Iowa has not been swept all year. It has lost 3 series by a 2-1 margin - Texas Tech (#41) on the road; Maryland (#48) at home and Indiana (#29) at home. Neutral site wins against #5 LSU; #13 Indiana State and #49 Kansas State. Its Q4 losses were on the road. One was a mid-week game (ISU); one was against Minnesota (a team that is likely better than its RPI indicates). Entirely possible that Nebraska plays its way into an RPI of better than 100 (currently 109) which would change Iowa's Q2 record from 5-2 to 8-2.

It may not be a "great" resume but it is "good" one and, barring a meltdown in Evanston, Iowa will have made a compelling regular season case for at-large consideration.

 

[BigOHawk]

God the RPI sucks. Neg points for winning is about the stupidest damn thing ever.

Reading all this RPI nonsense is aggravating to the nth degree. I do appreciate all the hard work everyone puts in around here, just so we CAN be aggravated.

Yep, and that's why baseball needs to fix the RPI weight or come up with something like NET as in bball. The RPI is heavily manipulated by most and it's why you see random midweek games scheduled or canceled depending on those formulas. The Selection Committee definitely hangs its hat on this metric and it's pretty much #1 when considering a team for a regional.

 

[BigOHawk]

Good facts:

On weekends, Iowa has not been swept all year. It has lost 3 series by a 2-1 margin - Texas Tech (#41) on the road; Maryland (#48) at home and Indiana (#29) at home. Neutral site wins against #5 LSU; #13 Indiana State and #49 Kansas State. Its Q4 losses were on the road. One was a mid-week game (ISU); one was against Minnesota (a team that is likely better than its RPI indicates). Entirely possible that Nebraska plays its way into an RPI of better than 100 (currently 109) which would change Iowa's Q2 record from 5-2 to 8-2.

It may not be a "great" resume but it is "good" one and, barring a meltdown in Evanston, Iowa will have made a compelling regular season case for at-large consideration.

Indeed! I hate writing that Iowa is a lock but the fact is, as of now, they are 100% in and just 'do what you've done all year' will get them through the NW series and BTT.

Last year, a 61 RPI was a tough sell even with some good opponents and then dropping a game to sub 100 RPI team did us no favors. Starting 30 ish spots higher is a much better feeling. Both Rutgers and Maryland have to be sweating, especially Maryland as evidenced above...today, it's Indy, Iowa and Rutgers with Maryland, IMO, on the outside looking in. Bid stealers and those near the cut line improving their resume to be considered too...

NW is indeed terrible but played Indiana very tough for some reason although Iowa hits the ball better than Indy and has better pitching, I'd put Iowa's #1-#3 pitchers up against most anyone when they have their stuff. Vs. other years, yes, we are in much better RPI position and great point about Nebraska playing its way north of a triple digit RPI, that makes Q2 metrics look much better.