I don't know whether to feel worse or better after seeing that. In one sense, I feel worse because what happened should have never happened given our historical performance once we get up by 8 or more points. On the other hand, because it is such an outlier, the odds of it happening again are probably pretty slim, so you can't really take what happened in that game and try to extrapolate it out to the rest of the season because it's such a unique data point over the last 10 years.
Before the ISU game, Iowa 72-2 since 2015 when leading by 8 or more points
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This right here is why Kirk was doing what he was doing after up by 13 - 0.
That is a very interesting point of data. It could go any of which way depending on at what point in the game the lead is and how big the lead is. Both of those change the percent of probability. I hope Iowa can continue to keep that record going. I would guess on the opposite end of them being down 8pts or more they probably win at least 35-40%. Probability is about 52% chance of winning when leading by exactly 8pts, so that goes to show Iowa has done a great job defensively.
Where are you getting these statistics? I don't have the stats myself, but I would guess that Iowa wins less than 20% of games in which they are down 8 or more points. They aren't an offense that scores enough points to rally from deficits.
I said I would guess not that it is a absolute. But any team playing any other team has a 47-48% chance of winning when down by 8pts. Now more then 8pts obviously goes down by quite a bit . As Iowa has very good records generally, I just went with a lower guess then what the avg team from behind has in that specific situation. Of course numbers change and get different percentage as the score changes throughout the game.
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No. I am certain this is nowhere close to correct. None of it.
what were the two losses? I want to say that Penn st night game when mcsorley threw the last second td pass...think the hawks were up 14 at half in that one. no idea on the other one.
Once the seal has been broken though, that's when the sharks come searching. That would be my concern.........
PSU 2018: (12-0 Iowa /lost 30-24)
N’western 2020 (17-0 Iowa /lost 21-20 Covid season)
*2017 was the night game where Iowa lost to PSU on last second TD pass as time expired. 7-5 Iowa at half and then Iowa got down by 8. Went for two which shockingly failed. Then went up by 4 until the last second TD pass.
Iowa lost two games in 2014 after being up by eight plus. Maryland and the Rudock Nebraska OT game.
The infamous "that's football" last game of reg season.
They were up big in that Black Friday game. I'd forgot about that. This loss to ISU has to be a contender for top five worse under Kirk.
Don't remind me of this PSU game! If Hooker jumps off one foot he bats that ball and we win that game. That was the electric Wadley game too, good times.
Except he did it too late imo. The INT in middle of 3rd was the play of the game. I could excuse it on 2nd or 3rd down but to call that with your opponent on life support on a short field might be the most anti-KF play call in his career. I’m sure he and Tim had a conversation about it after the game.
