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Biden, Trump neck and neck nationally, in battleground states: CBS Poll

binsfeldcyhawk2

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Looks like the Trump verdict didn't move the needle.

President Biden and former President Trump are basically tied nationally and in battleground states, according to new polling from CBS News.

The CBS News/YouGov poll found that Trump received 50 percent support nationally among likely voters, while Biden received 49 percent. In battleground states, 50 percent of likely voters selected Biden, while 49 percent backed Trump, according to CBS.

The poll also found that Trump’s recent conviction in the New York hush money case is not a major issue for most voters when deciding whom to support. More than half of respondents said that the guilty verdict was “not a factor” in their decision, 28 percent said it was a “major factor” and 17 percent said it was a “minor factor.”

Instead, an overwhelming majority said that issues like the economy, inflation and the state of the democracy would be the major factors in their votes.

The poll also found that Biden had the edge over Trump among key voting groups. Eighty-one percent of Black likely voters said they would support Biden, while 18 percent said they would back Trump.

Fifty-four percent of surveyed women also said they support Biden, while 45 percent support Trump. Independents are more divided when asked whether they would support Biden or Trump, with 50 percent selecting Biden and 48 percent choosing the former president.

The poll comes as the two front-runners are barreling toward a likely 2020 rematch in November. Trump and Biden are also neck and neck according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average, which shows Trump with 45.5 percent support and Biden with 44.7 percent.

The poll was conducted June 5-7 among 2,063 U.S. adult residents. It also included an oversample in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The poll has a margin of error is 3.2 percentage points among all adults and 3.8 points among registered voters.

 
If Biden now has a 1% lead in battleground states, I'd say Trump's conviction definitely has an impact. Trump has consistently led by a couple points in battleground states.
That's fair...I just thought it'd move the needle more than that. But to your point, a couple percentage pts means a lot in this election.
 
That's fair...I just thought it'd move the needle more than that. But to your point, a couple percentage pts means a lot in this election.
To me this election won't be about independents or minorities. This is ALL about the two bases. Which base is more motivated in November?

We know the hard core Trumpers will show. We know the hard core never Trumpers will show. How many people outside of those two groups are motivated enough to vote? Is the Trump hate strong enough to bring out the meh Democrats? Outside of the hard core Trumpites, how many of the meh Republicans show up to vote for Convicted Felon Donald Trump?
 
Has America ever had a felon become President so he can “pardon” himself? Would the Supreme Court have to sign off on such an action? Or…. Would America even need a Supreme Court if Trump the Felon becomes POTUS one more time?
Such exciting times we Americans are facing!
 
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To me this election won't be about independents or minorities. This is ALL about the two bases. Which base is more motivated in November?

We know the hard core Trumpers will show. We know the hard core never Trumpers will show. How many people outside of those two groups are motivated enough to vote? Is the Trump hate strong enough to bring out the meh Democrats? Outside of the hard core Trumpites, how many of the meh Republicans show up to vote for Convicted Felon Donald Trump?
I've never felt less motivation to vote, but I still will. You're spot on!
 
Will The United States and Russia sign a “non aggression pact” by March 1st, 2025? Or might Trump insist Russia be invited to join NATO?
Will the Epstein client list be revealed before the election? Will a name or two impact voters?
 
Has America ever had a felon become President so he can “pardon” himself? Would the Supreme Court have to sign off on such an action? Or…. Would America even need a Supreme Court if Trump the Felon becomes POTUS one more time?
Such exciting times we Americans are facing!

To be fair he can't pardon himself of state charges. He would just pardon himself of federal charges.
 
To me this election won't be about independents or minorities. This is ALL about the two bases. Which base is more motivated in November?

We know the hard core Trumpers will show. We know the hard core never Trumpers will show. How many people outside of those two groups are motivated enough to vote? Is the Trump hate strong enough to bring out the meh Democrats? Outside of the hard core Trumpites, how many of the meh Republicans show up to vote for Convicted Felon Donald Trump?
They don't yet realize what the black vote is going to do after the sham trials
 
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To be fair he can't pardon himself of state charges. He would just pardon himself of federal charges.

Long term I don't think these NY state charges will be an issue for Trump,.. Will likely be rectified via mis-trial, appeal or supreme court decision...
 
Long term I don't think these NY state charges will be an issue for Trump,.. Will likely be rectified via mis-trial, appeal or supreme court decision...

He doesn't have strong legal grounds to get anything overturned on appeal.

It won't be much of a problem but that's more because the crimes are the most minor class of felonies.
 
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Very interesting that Michelle Obama has much shorter odds than Newsom or Kamala.

2024 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BETTING ODDS
Donald Trump 5/6
Joe Biden 5/4
Michelle Obama 14/1
Robert Kennedy Jr. 28/1
Nikki Haley 40/1
Gavin Newsom 50/1
Kamala Harris 66/1
Gretchen Whitmer 100/1
All Other Candidates listed at 150/1 or higher
 
Why don't they call it a fraud conviction, which in essence is what it is, instead of a "hush money" conviction. It might resonate with some of more intelligent voters.
 
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Why don't they call it a fraud conviction, which in essence is what it is, instead of a "hush money" conviction. It might resonate with some of more intelligent voters.
Because calling it a hush money conviction makes it easier for them to attack as a political show trial.
 
Based on what? And which legal commentators.
This. Despite what tv dramas tell us, overturning convictions isn’t a common occurrence.

This is where the bashing of the trial as a witch-hunt or political hitjob hurts them…I’ve seen very few attack the case on its merits, most of which could be chalked up to prosecutorial discretion.
 
Somewhat hard to believe, but, looking that the Electoral map, Trump has a good chance to get to 270 based on recent polling. 5 months to go, a lot can change and who knows how reliable the polls truly are
 
Somewhat hard to believe, but, looking that the Electoral map, Trump has a good chance to get to 270 based on recent polling. 5 months to go, a lot can change and who knows how reliable the polls truly are
So Biden might be so unpopular that he loses to a convicted felon?
 
To me this election won't be about independents or minorities. This is ALL about the two bases. Which base is more motivated in November?

We know the hard core Trumpers will show. We know the hard core never Trumpers will show. How many people outside of those two groups are motivated enough to vote? Is the Trump hate strong enough to bring out the meh Democrats? Outside of the hard core Trumpites, how many of the meh Republicans show up to vote for Convicted Felon Donald Trump?
2020 showed us that hate for trump is stronger than love for trump. More people came out to vote against trump, than those who voted for him. By about 10 million votes. If Biden was running against anyone else, he'd lose.
 
2020 showed us that hate for trump is stronger than love for trump. More people came out to vote against trump, than those who voted for him. By about 10 million votes. If Biden was running against anyone else, he'd lose.
Now we have 4 years of Trump and 4 years of Biden to compare and contrast, we also have two old guys who are now 4 years even older to compare.

For me it's not a question of die hards in either direction... but who is more motivated among the non-diehards. Based on my two choices, I will be sitting out on the presidential vote. I have enough motivation to vote for the local stuff and amendments etc. But I am not interested in having either of those old dudes as president, and I'm not fond of Kamala as a back-up option for Joe... I suppose I could be swayed to vote for Trump depending on his running mate but there are better odds Britney Greiner is a dude than me voting for Trump.
 
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