Biden, Trump remain in tight race nationally, latest poll finds

[cigaretteman]

President Biden and former president Donald Trump remain locked in a tight race nationally, with Biden drawing 50 percent support and Trump drawing 48 percent among registered voters, according to an NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist National Poll released Thursday. The result is also within the margin of error among those who say they definitely plan to vote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/05/30/election-2024-campaign-updates/

 

[fsu1jreed]

I remember when Hillary was supposed to win big

 

[seminole97]

National poll of registered voters is less informative, and likely misleading, in comparison to statewide polls of likely voters, for purposes of predicting the presidential race.

 

[cigaretteman]

National poll of registered voters is less informative, and likely misleading, in comparison to statewide polls of likely voters, for purposes of predicting the presidential race.

Yep, only a handful of states actually matter for the outcome.

 

[torbee]

I remember when Hillary was supposed to win big

She kind of did. Polls can't really break down how a narrow Electoral College window might open and allow for an upset despite losing the popular vote though.


More Americans voted for Hillary Clinton than any other losing presidential candidate in US history.

The Democrat outpaced President-elect Donald Trump by almost 2.9 million votes, with 65,844,954 (48.2%) to his 62,979,879 (46.1%), according to revised and certified final election results from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Clinton’s 2.1% margin ranks third among defeated candidates, according to statistics from US Elections Atlas. Andrew Jackson won by more than 10% in 1824 but was denied the presidency, which went to John Quincy Adams. In 1876, Samuel Tilden received 3% more votes than Rutherford B. Hayes, who eventually triumphed by one electoral vote.

 

[torbee]

This is an excellent post-mortem. People forget that even the much-maligned 538 poll average still gave Trump a 30% shot or so of winning the Electoral College while predicting a clear Clinton popular vote win. Bascially, the polling said Clinton would get 2-4% more of the popular vote, but still COULD lose if everything broke perfectly for Trump.

Which is exactly what happened.

Lost in a Gallup: Revisiting the final hours of the 2016 campaign

This excerpt from Lost in Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections revisits the many confident expressions about Hillary Rodham Clinton’s candidacy in the final days and hours before the 2016 general election. A close outcome seemed possible, but her defeat was implausible. Clinton won

www.ucpress.edu