CIS White Boomer ManI just don't know what Walz brings to the table.
CIS White Boomer ManI just don't know what Walz brings to the table.
Yes that is about it it appears.Well his "weird" tag line was cute for awhile...
Yeah I am just thinking the momentum of the polls plus the bigger influx of early voting that the right is pushing will help. With the toss up, I agree it can go either way with the 4 states I highlighted but Trump has been making a stronger push the last couple of weeks with those states.Nate Silver, whom I think might be the best at this literally says it's a statistical toss-up just fyi. Harris will almost assuredly win the popular vote (which is just stupid but that's another discussion). The problem for her is Trump has more swing states he is currently favored in then she does. She has to win PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Then she has to win Nevada as well. That's assuming she loses NC, GA, and AZ which I think she probably does. I think she wins WI and MI but loses PA and NV but very small margins btw.
IMO, that's why she should have chosen either Kelly from AZ or Shapiro from PA as her VP.
It was a safe pick to not outshine Kamala.I just don't know what Walz brings to the table.
Yes I get that but dumb.It was a safe pick to not outshine Kamala.
Yeah although statistically speaking if the 7 swing state polls are off by even 1 point to the left or right (and they likely will be), the winning candidate will likely win almost all of them which will make the margins look bigger.
Yeah nothing gets by youYes I get that but dumb.
Yes that is about it it appears.
I don't have a clue who vets people these days.
I didn't understand Tim Cain either.
Well put. That dude made Pence look exciting.Tim Cain was a head scratcher,.. Apparently Dems have decided that a female candidate must be paired with a balding, non-threatening, middle aged, white dude.
Well put. That dude made Pence look exciting.
I'm not really worried at all about Trump winning in the southern states, but I'd really like to see him get all 3 of the "Blue Wall" states just for a nice Fvck you, icing on the cake.I had another thread keeping tabs since July or Aug using 538 avg polling for each of these swing states. After Kamala got into the race there was a massive bump in every poll for the Dems. She made great inroads on every swing state by making it an actual toss up or flipping it. Since the start of the month I have noticed Trump has started to take away all the momentum that she had (again, I am going by these 538 polls) and extending his lead in these states and in some states taking it where Kamala had an upper hand to a complete toss up. The four states that should worry the Dems would be PA, MI, NV, and WI. Kamala has been in the lead by around 1% or more in these states but recent avg polling show Trump turning these into a lot closer races as you will see below as my final look on 10/25/24:
-Ohio- Trump +8.4
-PA- Trump .3
-MI- Harris +.7
-WI- Harris +.2
-AZ-Trump +1.8
-NV- Harris +.5
-FL- Trump +6
-GA- Trump +1.5
-NC- Trump +1.2
After doing some statistics, science, and reading I believe Trump will win and ride this enthusiasm into flipping all 4 of those states above. I think the main thing that hurt Kamala is just time and being in front of cameras then the algo hitting people in these states. She hasn’t really done herself any favors and the rights social media machine is better suited for the dumbed down voter that will most likely flip these races. And yes I know Trump says and does the dumbest shit but that has been baked into what he is for years now while Kamala is relatively new to a lot of America. It is easier on social media to jump on the new shiny toy and bring it down compared to the toy that we collectively broke down already.
Final score is Trump 295 Kamala 243
Vance/GabbardTrump wins. The race will be called by 10:00 PM election night.
Hopefully, the D's run someone with a brain in 2028. They will be facing Vance.
pretty amazing the amount of angst some of these guys display arguing about two people who don't give two sh!ts about anyone other than themselves. Presidents come and go but the problems never get solved and in many cases get worse.I get a chuckle out of all you guys who think you have a clue about anything. It's almost as entertaining as the football and basketball board experts.
Vance/Gabbard
Vance is a weirder version of Ron DeSantis (and that's no small feat). If Republicans run him in 28 they lose regardless of who his running mate is.
Oh I know, I would even go back further to 2016. Polls, while not perfect, gives us somewhat of an idea but not the full picture anymore. To me it’s the polls then an educated guess from what you are seeing.Not taking a shot at you Bruno as your work on this seems pretty solid. But I just can’t take polls seriously anymore. Especially after that red tsunami in 2022.
Oh I know, I would even go back further to 2016. Polls, while not perfect, gives us somewhat of an idea but not the full picture anymore. To me it’s the polls then an educated guess from what you are seeing.
If Trump wins this is our last election that doesn't look like Hungary's or Russia's. Democrats won't be allowed to take the White House. We are a stupid stupid country. Half the country is ignorantly choosing an autocracy. No way did I ever dream this could happen in my country.I personally perfer Pete Buttigieg but yea Shapiro would have been good. The good news is Dems have a good bench for 2028 imo. Shapiro, Whitmer, Pete, and several others. However, this will require Rs to certify the election in 2028 and I don't think that will happen.
And after Biden won fairly convincingly in 24 and all the crazy crap that has went on with trump since then, it is just mind blowing that trump is gaining momentum. Seems this should have been a landslide but, here we are. Crazy.
Well, obviously Biden was not a good president and Harris is not a good candidate...
No candidate is bad enough to put trump in office.
We are living in strange times, indeed. Whether it's a passing phase or our new MO is to be determined.And after Biden won fairly convincingly in 24 and all the crazy crap that has went on with trump since then, it is just mind blowing that trump is gaining momentum. Seems this should have been a landslide but, here we are. Crazy.
My post was a prediction on who might be on the ticket, not necessarily my preference. Vance is too far right for me, but it’s a step in the right direction from Trump.Vance is a weirder version of Ron DeSantis (and that's no small feat). If Republicans run him in 28 they lose regardless of who his running mate is.
Even if you believe Biden was a bad President, you had several other choices in the R primary yet overwhelmingly chose Trump. That says a lot.Well, obviously Biden was not a good president and Harris is not a good candidate...
The problem is, assuming Trump wins in '24, do you honestly believe Vance will certify the 2028 election should a Dem win the Presidency? What happens in that scenario if Vance does not certify it? What systems do we have in place then?My post was a prediction on who might be on the ticket, not necessarily my preference. Vance is too far right for me, but it’s a step in the right direction from Trump.
Yep. I would say it's 55/45 in favor of Trump. It comes down, imo to PA and Nevada.I still think trump wins but I don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion. Harris has better odds to win than trump did in 2016.
Tom, if this happens, I’ll drive to wherever you want to meet up and I’ll buy you dinner at the restaurant of your choice. Flag this. Let’s revisit in 2028.If Trump wins this is our last election that doesn't look like Hungary's or Russia's. Democrats won't be allowed to take the White House. We are a stupid stupid country. Half the country is ignorantly choosing an autocracy. No way did I ever dream this could happen in my country.
I have no doubt we will have an election in 2028. What happens if it's close and Ds win narrowly? You honestly can't see Trump and Vance trying to do what they did in 2020? I mean we literally have a precedent for it now. Literally.Tom, if this happens, I’ll drive to wherever you want to meet up and I’ll buy you dinner at the restaurant of your choice. Flag this. Let’s revisit in 2028.
I’m not voting for the POS, but I also know that if he wins, in 4 years we will have another democratic election just as we always have.
Yes, I believe Vance will certify the 2028 election if a Dem wins. If that were to happen, I believe the election results would be upheld in court.The problem is, assuming Trump wins in '24, do you honestly believe Vance will certify the 2028 election should a Dem win the Presidency? What happens in that scenario if Vance does not certify it? What systems do we have in place then?
And you still wouldn't have voted for him, so what's your point?Shapiro should have been the presidential candidate...
It goes to Congress and the courts. I have faith in the systems we have in place.I have no doubt we will have an election in 2028. What happens if it's close and Ds win narrowly? You honestly can't see Trump and Vance trying to do what they did in 2020? I mean we literally have a precedent for it now. Literally.
Heck, you might be right but what if we have a 2020 repeat? How is that handled? Honest question
Wow, you have more faith than I do. Vance has already said he believes the 2020 election was stolen. What if he's the nominee in 2028?Yes, I believe Vance will certify the 2028 election if a Dem wins. If that were to happen, I believe the election results would be upheld in court.
Yea, the same Congress that acts like a circus? The same court that Trump has put his people in place? No chance that could go awry.It goes to Congress and the courts. I have faith in the systems we have in place.