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Bruno’s FINAL prediction for president

Nate Silver, whom I think might be the best at this literally says it's a statistical toss-up just fyi. Harris will almost assuredly win the popular vote (which is just stupid but that's another discussion). The problem for her is Trump has more swing states he is currently favored in then she does. She has to win PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Then she has to win Nevada as well. That's assuming she loses NC, GA, and AZ which I think she probably does. I think she wins WI and MI but loses PA and NV but very small margins btw.

IMO, that's why she should have chosen either Kelly from AZ or Shapiro from PA as her VP.
Yeah I am just thinking the momentum of the polls plus the bigger influx of early voting that the right is pushing will help. With the toss up, I agree it can go either way with the 4 states I highlighted but Trump has been making a stronger push the last couple of weeks with those states.
 
Yeah although statistically speaking if the 7 swing state polls are off by even 1 point to the left or right (and they likely will be), the winning candidate will likely win almost all of them which will make the margins look bigger.

Plain English podcast today went over this, even if the polls are off within the margin of error either way, it could result in fairly large swings in the electoral college.

I’m talking about a true landslide - Reagan and Mondale was 61/39. Something like that just isn’t going to happen either way until something drastically changes in the electorate.
 
Yes that is about it it appears.

I don't have a clue who vets people these days.

I didn't understand Tim Cain either.

Tim Cain was a head scratcher,.. Apparently Dems have decided that a female candidate must be paired with a balding, non-threatening, middle aged, white dude.
 
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Tim Cain was a head scratcher,.. Apparently Dems have decided that a female candidate must be paired with a balding, non-threatening, middle aged, white dude.
Well put. That dude made Pence look exciting.
 
Didn't see that one coming.

Heidi Klum Wow GIF by Lifetime
 
I had another thread keeping tabs since July or Aug using 538 avg polling for each of these swing states. After Kamala got into the race there was a massive bump in every poll for the Dems. She made great inroads on every swing state by making it an actual toss up or flipping it. Since the start of the month I have noticed Trump has started to take away all the momentum that she had (again, I am going by these 538 polls) and extending his lead in these states and in some states taking it where Kamala had an upper hand to a complete toss up. The four states that should worry the Dems would be PA, MI, NV, and WI. Kamala has been in the lead by around 1% or more in these states but recent avg polling show Trump turning these into a lot closer races as you will see below as my final look on 10/25/24:
-Ohio- Trump +8.4
-PA- Trump .3
-MI- Harris +.7
-WI- Harris +.2
-AZ-Trump +1.8
-NV- Harris +.5
-FL- Trump +6
-GA- Trump +1.5
-NC- Trump +1.2

After doing some statistics, science, and reading I believe Trump will win and ride this enthusiasm into flipping all 4 of those states above. I think the main thing that hurt Kamala is just time and being in front of cameras then the algo hitting people in these states. She hasn’t really done herself any favors and the rights social media machine is better suited for the dumbed down voter that will most likely flip these races. And yes I know Trump says and does the dumbest shit but that has been baked into what he is for years now while Kamala is relatively new to a lot of America. It is easier on social media to jump on the new shiny toy and bring it down compared to the toy that we collectively broke down already.

Final score is Trump 295 Kamala 243
I'm not really worried at all about Trump winning in the southern states, but I'd really like to see him get all 3 of the "Blue Wall" states just for a nice Fvck you, icing on the cake.
 
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I get a chuckle out of all you guys who think you have a clue about anything. It's almost as entertaining as the football and basketball board experts.
pretty amazing the amount of angst some of these guys display arguing about two people who don't give two sh!ts about anyone other than themselves. Presidents come and go but the problems never get solved and in many cases get worse.
 
Not taking a shot at you Bruno as your work on this seems pretty solid. But I just can’t take polls seriously anymore. Especially after that red tsunami in 2022.
 
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Vance is a weirder version of Ron DeSantis (and that's no small feat). If Republicans run him in 28 they lose regardless of who his running mate is.

He did show out pretty well in the debate but before that… pretty cringey.
 
Not taking a shot at you Bruno as your work on this seems pretty solid. But I just can’t take polls seriously anymore. Especially after that red tsunami in 2022.
Oh I know, I would even go back further to 2016. Polls, while not perfect, gives us somewhat of an idea but not the full picture anymore. To me it’s the polls then an educated guess from what you are seeing.
 
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Oh I know, I would even go back further to 2016. Polls, while not perfect, gives us somewhat of an idea but not the full picture anymore. To me it’s the polls then an educated guess from what you are seeing.

Like I said. I appreciate your efforts on this. It’s pretty interesting. Scary but interesting. Can’t believe you said fun you twisted sumbitch.
 
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I personally perfer Pete Buttigieg but yea Shapiro would have been good. The good news is Dems have a good bench for 2028 imo. Shapiro, Whitmer, Pete, and several others. However, this will require Rs to certify the election in 2028 and I don't think that will happen.
If Trump wins this is our last election that doesn't look like Hungary's or Russia's. Democrats won't be allowed to take the White House. We are a stupid stupid country. Half the country is ignorantly choosing an autocracy. No way did I ever dream this could happen in my country.
 
And after Biden won fairly convincingly in 24 and all the crazy crap that has went on with trump since then, it is just mind blowing that trump is gaining momentum. Seems this should have been a landslide but, here we are. Crazy.
 
And after Biden won fairly convincingly in 24 and all the crazy crap that has went on with trump since then, it is just mind blowing that trump is gaining momentum. Seems this should have been a landslide but, here we are. Crazy.

Well, obviously Biden was not a good president and Harris is not a good candidate...
 
All I know is if Harris somehow wins, I am dragging my internet nuts all over the Trump posters. Cockiest SOB’s I’ve seen this side of the stevenpatrick days.
 
And after Biden won fairly convincingly in 24 and all the crazy crap that has went on with trump since then, it is just mind blowing that trump is gaining momentum. Seems this should have been a landslide but, here we are. Crazy.
We are living in strange times, indeed. Whether it's a passing phase or our new MO is to be determined.
 
Vance is a weirder version of Ron DeSantis (and that's no small feat). If Republicans run him in 28 they lose regardless of who his running mate is.
My post was a prediction on who might be on the ticket, not necessarily my preference. Vance is too far right for me, but it’s a step in the right direction from Trump.
 
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Well, obviously Biden was not a good president and Harris is not a good candidate...
Even if you believe Biden was a bad President, you had several other choices in the R primary yet overwhelmingly chose Trump. That says a lot.
 
My post was a prediction on who might be on the ticket, not necessarily my preference. Vance is too far right for me, but it’s a step in the right direction from Trump.
The problem is, assuming Trump wins in '24, do you honestly believe Vance will certify the 2028 election should a Dem win the Presidency? What happens in that scenario if Vance does not certify it? What systems do we have in place then?
 
I still think trump wins but I don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion. Harris has better odds to win than trump did in 2016.
 
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If Trump wins this is our last election that doesn't look like Hungary's or Russia's. Democrats won't be allowed to take the White House. We are a stupid stupid country. Half the country is ignorantly choosing an autocracy. No way did I ever dream this could happen in my country.
Tom, if this happens, I’ll drive to wherever you want to meet up and I’ll buy you dinner at the restaurant of your choice. Flag this. Let’s revisit in 2028.

I’m not voting for the POS, but I also know that if he wins, in 4 years we will have another democratic election just as we always have.
 
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Tom, if this happens, I’ll drive to wherever you want to meet up and I’ll buy you dinner at the restaurant of your choice. Flag this. Let’s revisit in 2028.

I’m not voting for the POS, but I also know that if he wins, in 4 years we will have another democratic election just as we always have.
I have no doubt we will have an election in 2028. What happens if it's close and Ds win narrowly? You honestly can't see Trump and Vance trying to do what they did in 2020? I mean we literally have a precedent for it now. Literally.

Heck, you might be right but what if we have a 2020 repeat? How is that handled? Honest question
 
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2020 was a shit show primarily because of covid, and peoples attempts to make voting easier, regardless of what procedures had been authorized by their state legislature,.. Things should be better going forward.
 
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The problem is, assuming Trump wins in '24, do you honestly believe Vance will certify the 2028 election should a Dem win the Presidency? What happens in that scenario if Vance does not certify it? What systems do we have in place then?
Yes, I believe Vance will certify the 2028 election if a Dem wins. If that were to happen, I believe the election results would be upheld in court.
 
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I have no doubt we will have an election in 2028. What happens if it's close and Ds win narrowly? You honestly can't see Trump and Vance trying to do what they did in 2020? I mean we literally have a precedent for it now. Literally.

Heck, you might be right but what if we have a 2020 repeat? How is that handled? Honest question
It goes to Congress and the courts. I have faith in the systems we have in place.
 
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Yes, I believe Vance will certify the 2028 election if a Dem wins. If that were to happen, I believe the election results would be upheld in court.
Wow, you have more faith than I do. Vance has already said he believes the 2020 election was stolen. What if he's the nominee in 2028?

He seems to have far less integrity than Pence. Also, election results being upheld in a court that Trump has at least a 6-3 advantage in? Again, you have far more faith than do I.
 
It goes to Congress and the courts. I have faith in the systems we have in place.
Yea, the same Congress that acts like a circus? The same court that Trump has put his people in place? No chance that could go awry.
 
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