Bubble Question

[sienajay2009]

Hey guys and gals - haven't been posting, but still watching every game and reading along with y'all's comments as the season has progressed.

I love this team, and with a few close, better results (read: those 3 wins the team should probably have that were 'bad' or 'tough' losses) would this team be squarely on the bubble?

And, more importantly - if the Hawks win the next three games, finish the regular season 10-8, which quite possibly could have them finish anywhere from 4-6 in the league, would they have a legitimate shot at getting a bid in the big dance?

With wins over Maryland and Wisconsin, both on the road, I would say yes.

Sure, this is pie in the sky talk, but I just think with how weak the bubble is, I'd hope the committee would consider them.

Anyway, checking in after a while of not posting (mostly because I forgot my password ) but I'm having a blast watching these young guys develop, and I now think they have a legit shot at winning their last three games.

Anyway, thanks in advance for your heated debates and reaction!

Best,
Jay

 

[FairfIowafan1984]

Hello jay with a RPI of 108 and BPI 91 if we were to win our next 3 games which could happen if the terps and badgers keep playing the way they have I think Iowa would make it getting to the big ten championship game and losing. 21-14 would do it i feel but I'd give us about a 2-3 percent chance of that.

The bubble is really weak this year, weaker then any season i can ever remember. But i would be fine with this team making the NIT, the best years are here to come with good recruits coming in and the 7th youngest team in D1.

And to answer your question yes i think with the Omaha game back as a win and the Minnesota game which should have probably been a win, Nebraska game back. That puts us at 18-10 which would be 10-12 seed or next 4 out imo.

 

[DavenportHawk8]

This team has to win 5 straight (last 3 games and then 2 in the BTT). IF they do that, they will be most likely 1 of the last 4 teams in, possibly the last.

Any loss down the stretch and they are essentially eliminated from post season (NIT maybe). The NIT is screwy that it takes the conf champ and there are several teams with better RPI #'s than Iowa. So I doubt Iowa would get the call if they were 18-14 or 17-15.

 

[LarryMullenJr.]

I assume we'd take any post-season bid to get the young'uns some experience. Granted the CBILGBTQ thing isn't exactly what we want, but games versus recuperation seems like a no-brainer

 

[lovedwatchingLester]

All the Hawks can do is play with effort every game start to finish and win. They have the ability to do so, but it would be the best finish in Iowa history if my memory serves me right

 

[SDHawkDoc]

I assume we'd take any post-season bid to get the young'uns some experience. Granted the CBILGBTQ thing isn't exactly what we want, but games versus recuperation seems like a no-brainer

I can't point to an official statement from the AD's office, but I've asked the question about other tournaments and the response on the forum was nope.

There are apparently 3 options: 1. NCAA 2. NIT 3. No post season play

 

[DavenportHawk8]

I can't point to an official statement from the AD's office, but I've asked the question about other tournaments and the response on the forum was nope.

There are apparently 3 options: 1. NCAA 2. NIT 3. No post season play

Iowa has stated that they will play in the NCAA, NIT, or sit at home. They do not play in the other tournaments.

I think the Big Ten even stated that they would not like their institutions to participate in the other tournaments CBI or CIT. But I know Penn State has been playing in them the last few years. So I wonder if PSU is just paying their own way or what to play in those tournaments. I think you have the "pay to host" in those tournaments.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

Iowa has stated that they will play in the NCAA, NIT, or sit at home. They do not play in the other tournaments.

I think the Big Ten even stated that they would not like their institutions to participate in the other tournaments CBI or CIT. But I know Penn State has been playing in them the last few years. So I wonder if PSU is just paying their own way or what to play in those tournaments. I think you have the "pay to host" in those tournaments.

I'm not doubting you, I just hadn't seen an official statement. Did Barta, or someone else in admin say that?

 

[DavenportHawk8]

I'm not doubting you, I just hadn't seen an official statement. Did Barta, or someone else in admin say that?

Back in 2012 I think it was when Iowa was on the "bubble" there was some talk about the "other" tournaments and Barta said it would be NCAA, NIT or bust. I can't find the exact quote but I remember hearing it. It was after the MSU debacle in the BTT.

 

[War Hawkeye]

I would really like to see this team at least make the NIT. That experience could go a long way for these young guys. I also think they have the mentality to do some damage.

 

[LarryMullenJr.]

Frankly I don't have a problem with that (NIT at worst) plan. Is it better to play North Eastern Arkansas A&M or let the guys heal? Especially with the Europe trip they'll have, playing for the sake of playing isn't always good. October, sure. March, not always.

 

[relishingwinning18]

If we win our last 3 games our RPI would be 74. Bubble for sure, but we'd have to win at least one in BTT to keep it there. Assuming we did this, we would be 8 or 9 seed with Michigan our first game. NW or MSU would have to lose their last 3 for us to pass them. Then Purdue as #1 seed next round. Beating Michigan would get us to 69th. If we lose to Purdue, we stay 69th. If we lost to Michigan, we would drop to 81st.

Fantasy for sure, and unlikely we win our last 3 to be honest.

 

[jhawkinaz]

Frankly I don't have a problem with that (NIT at worst) plan. Is it better to play North Eastern Arkansas A&M or let the guys heal? Especially with the Europe trip they'll have, playing for the sake of playing isn't always good. October, sure. March, not always.

I understand your point, and I think it has some merit. I would argue that this team needs to play in the post season. I know the CBI is a far cry from March Madness......but these young guys can get some experience from it.

Traveling (possibly) for tournament games, film work on an unfamiliar opponent on short notice, feeling the pressure and nerves of a one-and-done environment.....all of these things can be valuable experiences for the real thing down the road, IMO.

Hopefully the NIT comes calling and its not even an arguement.

 

[StormHawk42]

If we win our last 3 games our RPI would be 74. Bubble for sure, but we'd have to win at least one in BTT to keep it there. Assuming we did this, we would be 8 or 9 seed with Michigan our first game. NW or MSU would have to lose their last 3 for us to pass them. Then Purdue as #1 seed next round. Beating Michigan would get us to 69th. If we lose to Purdue, we stay 69th. If we lost to Michigan, we would drop to 81st.

Fantasy for sure, and unlikely we win our last 3 to be honest.

That's actually better than I expected. Road wins are everything when determining RPI.

 

[luvmyhawks]

I understand your point, and I think it has some merit. I would argue that this team needs to play in the post season. I know the CBI is a far cry from March Madness......but these young guys can get some experience from it.

Traveling (possibly) for tournament games, film work on an unfamiliar opponent on short notice, feeling the pressure and nerves of a one-and-done environment.....all of these things can be valuable experiences for the real thing down the road, IMO.

Hopefully the NIT comes calling and its not even an arguement.

Technically, they are pretty much in a one and done for the remainder of the season.

 

[El Simbolo]

If our next five games result in 4 wins and 1 loss with a combination of beating PSU, the equivalent of Michigan, and any two of Maryland/Wisconsin/Purdue we'll basically have an RPI of 70 either way after the BTT quarterfinals.

 

[El Simbolo]

We're not currently on NYC buckets NIT bracketology watch list, but that was before beating IU. They have us tagged as predicted under .500 record. RPI forecast predicts us to 16-15 now.

 

[relishingwinning18]

If we did get to bubble talk, would they throw out the UNO game because Cook didn't play?

 

[SDHN2013]

Man I just want to see this young team in the NIT. That could be exciting to watch but as of right now they wouldn't be in the field I would guess. NCAA is crazy talk barring some miraculous run the likes of which has never been seen before. Lets just get one of these next 2 at least then handle PSU and win 1(hopefully more) at the conference tourny and we could slide in the NIT and make a nice run like the 2013 team did. (Of course I would love a NCAA bid but c'mon).

 

[jhawkinaz]

Technically, they are pretty much in a one and done for the remainder of the season.

What does that even mean?

 

[soybean]

What does that even mean?

He means we need to win out or go home. Advance and survive if you will.

 

[EZ2BJZ]

Frankly I don't have a problem with that (NIT at worst) plan. Is it better to play North Eastern Arkansas A&M or let the guys heal? Especially with the Europe trip they'll have, playing for the sake of playing isn't always good. October, sure. March, not always.

This is a young team. Any type of post season experience they can get is good. I don't understand your "let the guys heal" position. Unless there are serious injuries, and any player with a serious injury wouldn't be playing anyway, they will have plenty of time to rest between the end of this season and next. We are talking about teenagers and 20 year-olds here. How much time do you think they need to recuperate from the season?

Yes, I understand the other tournaments outside the NIT and NCAA are out, and I'm not arguing against that position, but again I don't get the needing rest sooner before next season talk. If Iowa is fortunate enough to get in the NIT, I think making a run in that would be great for the young guys. We're talking invaluable experience.

I still do not believe Iowa can make it to the NCAA tourney without winning the BTT, even if they won their last 3 regular season games and 3 in the BTT to finish 21-14. As I stated in a different thread, 20 wins is no longer the magic number to get in and Iowa has an incredibly low RPI right now. Yes, it's possible, but very unlikely.

 

[FairfIowafan1984]

This is a young team. Any type of post season experience they can get is good. I don't understand your "let the guys heal" position. Unless there are serious injuries, and any player with a serious injury wouldn't be playing anyway, they will have plenty of time to rest between the end of this season and next. We are talking about teenagers and 20 year-olds here. How much time do you think they need to recuperate from the season?

Yes, I understand the other tournaments outside the NIT and NCAA are out, and I'm not arguing against that position, but again I don't get the needing rest sooner before next season talk. If Iowa is fortunate enough to get in the NIT, I think making a run in that would be great for the young guys. We're talking invaluable experience.

I still do not believe Iowa can make it to the NCAA tourney without winning the BTT, even if they won their last 3 regular season games and 3 in the BTT to finish 21-14. As I stated in a different thread, 20 wins is no longer the magic number to get in and Iowa has an incredibly low RPI right now. Yes, it's possible, but very unlikely.

Most years I would agree with you but 21-14 would get us in this year with the bubble so weak this year. I don't recall the bubble ever being so weak also we would probably have a RPI in the low 60s, high 50s going 3-1 in the BTT.

They said we had to win the BTT to get in the tournament in 2002 or 2000 was it? We lost in the championship game and still got in pretty easily I believe 10th seed if memory serves right.

But like I've said I would be happy with the NIT this year maybe this team could make a run and getting in those extra games will help us in the future with this young squad.

 

[EZ2BJZ]

Most years I would agree with you but 21-14 would get us in this year with the bubble so weak this year. I don't recall the bubble ever being so weak also we would probably have a RPI in the low 60s, high 50s going 3-1 in the BTT.

They said we had to win the BTT to get in the tournament in 2002 or 2000 was it? We lost in the championship game and still got in pretty easily I believe 10th seed if memory serves right.

But like I've said I would be happy with the NIT this year maybe this team could make a run and getting in those extra games will help us in the future with this young squad.

I hope you're right, but I really don't see this young team winning 6 in a row, anyway. I guess it would depend on who Iowa beat in the BTT. It's certainly possible if Iowa did in fact go on that run that they would get in. It really depends on other teams too, like unforeseen conference tournament winners, teams with late surges like Iowa, etc.

Iowa lost to Ohio State in the conference title game in 2002. They did not make the NCAA tourney that year.

 

[thirteenandtwo]

He means we need to win out or go home. Advance and survive if you will.

so if we lose our next 3 games... then go on to win the Big Ten Tournament.... we're not in?

 

[jhawkinaz]

He means we need to win out or go home. Advance and survive if you will.

I know what he is trying to mean......but it couldn't be further from accurate. We could lose every game up to the BIG tourney, win that , and go dancing. We could also get into the NIT with probably 2 or 3 more losses.

So, TECHNICALLY, that statement is jibberish.

 

[Suterman]

We need to win the B1G tournament to get in to the NCAA's. Win 2 of the last 3 and win one in the B1G tournament and we are in the NIT (IMO). I am in the minority here, but I would love to play a home game or 2 in the CBI. Why not?

 

[thirteenandtwo]

I'd love to get into the NCAA and win the whole gawd dam thing... but that's just me.

 

[luvmyhawks]

I know what he is trying to mean......but it couldn't be further from accurate. We could lose every game up to the BIG tourney, win that , and go dancing. We could also get into the NIT with probably 2 or 3 more losses.

So, TECHNICALLY, that statement is jibberish.

Sorry, I forgot about winning the tourney. And I wasn't talking NIT. And I said pretty much. So, yeah.

 

[relishingwinning18]

This is a young team. Any type of post season experience they can get is good. I don't understand your "let the guys heal" position. Unless there are serious injuries, and any player with a serious injury wouldn't be playing anyway, they will have plenty of time to rest between the end of this season and next. We are talking about teenagers and 20 year-olds here. How much time do you think they need to recuperate from the season?

Yes, I understand the other tournaments outside the NIT and NCAA are out, and I'm not arguing against that position, but again I don't get the needing rest sooner before next season talk. If Iowa is fortunate enough to get in the NIT, I think making a run in that would be great for the young guys. We're talking invaluable experience.

I still do not believe Iowa can make it to the NCAA tourney without winning the BTT, even if they won their last 3 regular season games and 3 in the BTT to finish 21-14. As I stated in a different thread, 20 wins is no longer the magic number to get in and Iowa has an incredibly low RPI right now. Yes, it's possible, but very unlikely.

Assuming we did this, we would have beat Illnois, Purdue, and Michigan ST/NW, and our RPI would be 58ish. We'd probably be a lock to be honest. Per Lunardi, he currently has Ga Tech (98th), TCU (60th), Marquette (67th), and Syracuse (77th). Illinois St is also in with an RPI of 33, but only has 2 top 100 wins. 2!

The real key to any of these teams getting in, is the smaller tourney's. You'd want teams like Gonzaga/St Mary's, Monmouth, Nevada, Cinn,Dayton/VCU, Mid Tenn, Wich St, and UNC Wilmington to all win their conf tourneys.