In order to make this easier for everyone to follow, the next step in the process is to do the math on at-large bids vs tournament "locks".
NCAA Tournament breakdown:
32 Automatic Qualifiers
36 At-large bids
Projected Tournament "Locks" by conference:
AAC-
Florida Atlantic
(odd considering they are currently 3 games back on AAC-leading South Florida, who can clinch the outright conference regular season title with one win in their remaining 3 games. Several prognosticators are even bullish to put the 21-5 Bulls in lest they run the gammit and win the AAC Tournament as well).
A10-
Dayton
(As mentioned above, weirdly enough, Dayton is appearing as a lock for the NCAA Tournament, however after an upset loss to George Mason, they find themselves a game behind Richmond and Loyola, Chicago in the conference standings. That has left some beginning to question whether perhaps Dayton will need to win the A10 Tournament or will they be able to salvage what's left of their schedule to give them some cushion and an at-large bid come Selection Sunday)
ACC-
North Carolina
Duke
Clemson
(Obviously, Duke/UNC have been locks for a while, but Clemson has been well-represented in mock brackets, despite being two games back on Virginia, who also holds a head-to-head win over the Tigers, but is suspiciously hanging at the back-end of many projections, including being one of Lunardi's Last Four BYES. I will hold on the Cavaliers for now, but I would have to think one more win, bringing them to 12 in the ACC, would secure them "Lock" status)
Big 12-
Houston
Iowa State
Kansas
Baylor
Texas Tech
BYU
(It's no secret the Big 12 is gonna get the most teams. The question is just how many. Right now, the only teams with any real work to do are Texas and Oklahoma, and even then most mocks seem to have them safely in without needing to sweat it out on Selection Sunday. TCU is probably a win or two from lock status, but they're in a better position than the two aforementioned teams)
Big East-
Connecticut
Marquette
Creighton
(The Big East will be the conference to keep on eye on for bid stealers and bubble bursters, as several teams have entered the conversation in the last few weeks. Villanova is a team Iowa could be fighting for a final bid, along with Seton Hall and Providence, who are both projected to make the final cut with a couple more wins. Then you factor in teams like St. John's and Butler, who could burst some bubbles with strong finishes and a run in the Big East Tournament.)
Big Ten-
Purdue
Illinois
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Nebraska
(I think we can assume Nebraska and Northwestern will make the cut barring any epic collapses. That leaves Michigan State as the only other potential lock with "work to do". The rest are in desperation mode, and that lost has suddenly expanded as well. Of course, our hometown Hawks have a lot of work to do, but again, I've said for weeks. Talk to me when they get to 19 wins. They'll have their opportunities to reach that magic number here in the next two weeks. Meanwhile, there's outside-looking-in bubble hopefuls that include Minnesota, Maryland, and even Ohio State after a couple of big victories in the past week or so. In fact, you could probably throw in every single Big Ten team not named Michigan as not-yet-eliminated as far as their bubble chances go. It will definitely make for an interesting Big Ten Tournament to see who ends up snagging that last at-large bid.)
MWC-
Utah State
San Diego State
(Only a couple teams are virtual locks at this point, but most projections have as many as 6 MWC teams pretty safely in the tournament. Nevada and New Mexico are next in line and are probably gonna reach lock status by the end of the week. Boise State and Colorado State still have some work to do, but most are pitting them in that 7-10 safely-in range. UNLV is another one to keep an eye on as a bid stealer if they get hot in the final two weeks.)
Pac 12-
Arizona
Washington State
(The Pac 12 only has two teams that can feel confident as "locks" heading into the final couple of weeks of action. Teams like Oregon, Utah, Colorado, and even UCLA still have a lot of work to do to convince the committee they should take one of those last few at-large bids. These will be some of the bubble teams to keep an eye on, as Iowa fans.)
SEC-
Tennessee
Kentucky
Auburn
Alabama
Florida
South Carolina
(Outside of whose bubbles will burst, perhaps the biggest drama come Selection Sunday will be which conference ends up with more representatives between the Big 12, the perceived best conference in the nation this year, and the SEC. Florida and South Carolina are "soft" locks right now, but really barring any disastrous collapses, will be safely in the tournament, especially given the competition on the bubble. The teams with actual work left to do are Mississippi and Mississippi State, followed by current outside-looking-in bubble hopefuls Texas A&M and LSU. MSU can gain lock status with any one win in their final 4 (UK, Aub, TAMU, SC), though they may have to sweat a bit if they only manage a 1-3 finish with that lone win coming against the Aggies. Mississippi sits at 19-8 but a 6-8 conference record, and dropping 5 of their last 6, is what's holding them back. They will probably need at least 3 more wins to feel any kind of confidence about their chances come Sunday.)
Other-
Saint Mary's
(The Gaels are pretty much a lock at this point, even if they lose out after a 14-0 start to league play, if for nothing else, because there just aren't enough potential bad losses left for them to take, particularly thanks to the clever way they structure their conference tournament. The only real damage they could do at this point is hurt their final seed line, should they fall off down the stretch against Pepperdine, Gonzaga, and in the WCC Tournament.
Gonzaga, meanwhile, can probably cinch up lock status with what could sneakily be a bracket buster game of sorts, in a road trip to 3rd place San Francisco. The Dons sit at 22-7 overall, 11-3 in the WCC just behind Gonzaga, and a strong finish including a deep run in the WCC Tournament could have many bubble teams biting their finger nails.
Drake and Indiana State are far from locks, outside of winning the MVC Tournament, however both have solid resumes and have spent quite a bit of time on mock brackets. We've talked about Drake and how they'll probably need to make the MVC Finals at this point to even have a chance, but the Sycamores, who can clinch the MVC regular season title outright with wins over Evansville and Murray State, sit at 24-5 with really only one "bad" loss, which coincidentally came in their first game as a ranked team in 45 years, when they fell at home 80-67 to Illinoise State. If they, and Drake go chalk to the MVC Finals, then it will be a shame if the loser of that gets left out of the tournament.
Edit- Wanted to add James Madison as one to watch. This was a team that was ranked at one point to start the season, and currently sits a game behind Appalachian State in the Sun Belt. They're 26-3, and short of dropping any of their remaining regular season games, should they make the Sun Belt final at 30-3, it would at least raise some eye brows if they didn't take an at-large bid compared to some other teams hovering around the bubble.)
