So we want James Madison to win the tourney because you are saying if App State wins, James Madison could get an at-large?
***Bubble Watching 2024!!!***
- Thread starter EvilMonkeyInTheCloset
- Start date
Correct, we should be rooting for the Dukes to win the Sun Belt Tourney.
American conference is getting interesting, You got FAU, Memphis still kinda sorta alive and South Florida. South florida is really starting to become a threat. Lets say they win out regular season then make it to championship with memphis and lose, does the comittee award 3 bids to the American? FAU is no lock either so something to watch. Also if Drake and Indiana State make the finals at Arch madness does the loser get a bid?
17 of South Florida's 23 wins have come against Q3 & Q4 opponents + they have 2 Q4 Ls. They have no shot at an at-large bid, only chance they'll make it is if they win the AAC.
Memphis may get back into the conversation if they win @ FAU on Saturday. But they still have a Q3 & a Q4 loss and they have terrible metrics compared to other bubble teams. I think for the most part, we want FAU to just win the AAC tournament and that'll likely be a 1 bid league.
I also know there are probably some Drake/UNI lovers on this board who probably don't want to hear this, but it's really difficult for the Valley to get multiple bids when Drake and Indiana St are playing 20+ games in Q3&4 every season. There's a reason that most bracketologies have Drake on the outside looking in right now--The best win they can pickup without winning Arch Madness is a Q2 win against Bradley so it wouldn't really move the needle much.
I think that if Iowa beats the Illini and wins their first B1G tourney game they in for sure. Lose to the Illini and lose the first tourney game, they are probably out. Split the games and it will be tense.
Other than maybe Ohio St - if they keep winning - I feel like Iowa isn't really competing with anyone in the B1G for an at-large bid, imo. Everyone else (PU, ILL, WIS, MSU, NW, NEB) is pretty much in, without complete nuclear meltdowns by either of NW or NEB between now and next week @ the BTT.
So in that sense, I don't think this game has much impact on Iowa aside from BTT seedings. Hawks have a much better shot at playing NW on Friday than MSU, so I think it would be better if NW wins out in their last 2 reg. season games and boosts their image & metrics so that when Iowa beats them in Minneapolis next week, it'll make Iowa's own resume even better.
Also, would be beating NW x2 (away & neutral), and MSU (away) only once, if NW ends up as Iowa's BTT Friday opponent.
Games of bubble interest for tonight, 3/7;
Colorado @ Oregon, 8p CST on ESPN2 - GO Ducks!
Utah @ Oregon St, 10p CST on ESPNU - GO Beavers!
Colorado @ Oregon, 8p CST on ESPN2 - GO Ducks!
Utah @ Oregon St, 10p CST on ESPNU - GO Beavers!
Beavers WIN! Need them to beat Colorado on Saturday night! It would also help some more if Oregon takes out Utah and send them to the NIT!
Do we want Indiana St to lose to MO St in this MVC Quarterfinal? Would a loss keep them from an at large bid?
I think so. Remember the committee has shown a penchant in recent years to lean more towards favoring P6 teams on the bubble (becuz big bad P6 teams play tuff seduces and r bedder dan garbage mid majors....... - some f***ing idiots on the committee, who shouldn't be on an NCAA basketball tournament committee)
Yes, they have been absolutely stunned by the success of mid-majors in recent years despite how good and unpredictable and inviting of the parity and "madness" this tournament has proclaimed to be over the years.
We are coming off a tournament that saw TWO mid-majors in the Final Four, yet the committee will still favor 17 and 18 win teams that probably don't deserve tournament bids over 3-6 loss mid majors who have had tremendous seasons but got upset by a hero ball chucking conference opponent that got hot in their tournament.
This isn't the '90s where a 17-14 Maryland is still light years better than a 27-3 Stephen F. Austin on a neutral court.
With that said, yeah if both Indiana State and Drake don't end up in the MVC Finals (especially Drake), then that conference will be a 1-bid league.
/mini rant
Time for a bump as we head into the weekend:Because I'm bored, let's go ahead and make this the official thread to keep track of both our bubble status, and that of our fellow bubble-inhabiting companions in this closing stretch of the 2023-2024 season:
Based on Lunardi's bracketology-
(Last Four In)
Seton Hall
Providence
Gonzaga
Wake Forest*
(First Four Out)
Texas A&M*
Mississippi
Utah
Butler
(Next Four Out)
Villanova
Drake
Cincinnati
Colorado
-Some quick thoughts......I penciled in Wake Forest and flipped TAMU, after Saturday's results. Not gonna change much more than that, as Lundardi hasn't updated things Friday. Also, Drake losing to UNI probably ends any hope they had of getting an at-large bids, but what does that mean for Iowa considering there's plenty to debate about who the better team is between the two of us.
Here's a list of the rest of the contenders (whether you think they're in or not is up for debate........hence the purpose of this thread):
AAC-
South Florida**
Florida Atlantic
----------
Memphis
Charlotte
SMU
UAB
A10-
Richmond**
Dayton
----------
Loyola, Chicago
ACC-
Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
Clemson
-----------
NC State
Syracuse
Big East-
Seton Hall
Providence
-------------
Butler
Villanova
B12-
Kansas State
Texas
-------------
Cincinnati
Big Ten- (Pur, Wis, Ill, NW, Neb)
Michigan State
Iowa
----------------
(Anyone else?.....PSU? Minn? OSU?)
MVC-
Indiana State**
Drake
MWC-
Nevada
Colorado State
New Mexico
-----------------
UNLV?
P12-
Oregon
Colorado
Utah
SEC-
Texas A&M
Mississippi
Sun Belt-
Appalachian State**
James Madison
WCC-
St. Mary's**
Gonzaga
**- currently leading their conference, could possibly/debatably still be an at-large team if they don't win conference tournament (which could potentially also work against other bubble teams)
Last Four in-
Villanova
New Mexico
St. John's
Virginia
First Four out-
Providence
Colorado
Iowa
Utah
Next Four out-
Memphis
Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
Drake
AAC-
South Florida**
Florida Atlantic
----------
Memphis
Charlotte
SMU
UAB
A10-
Richmond**
Dayton
----------
Loyola, Chicago
ACC-
Clemson
Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
-----------
NC State
Big East-
Seton Hall
Providence
-------------
Butler
Villanova
B12-
Kansas State
Texas
-------------
Cincinnati
Big Ten- (Pur, Wis, Ill, NW, Neb)
Michigan State
Iowa
----------------
Ohio State
Indiana
MVC-
Indiana State**
Drake
MWC-
Nevada
Colorado State
New Mexico
-----------------
UNLV?
P12-
Oregon
Colorado
Utah
SEC-
Texas A&M
Mississippi
Sun Belt-
Appalachian State**
James Madison
WCC-
St. Mary's**
Gonzaga
AAC-Time for a bump as we head into the weekend:
Last Four in-
Villanova
New Mexico
St. John's
Virginia
First Four out-
Providence
Colorado
Iowa
Utah
Next Four out-
Memphis
Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
Drake
AAC-
South Florida**
Florida Atlantic
----------
Memphis
Charlotte
SMU
UAB
A10-
Richmond**
Dayton
----------
Loyola, Chicago
ACC-
Clemson
Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
-----------
NC State
Big East-
Seton Hall
Providence
-------------
Butler
Villanova
B12-
Kansas State
Texas
-------------
Cincinnati
Big Ten- (Pur, Wis, Ill, NW, Neb)
Michigan State
Iowa
----------------
Ohio State
Indiana
MVC-
Indiana State**
Drake
MWC-
Nevada
Colorado State
New Mexico
-----------------
UNLV?
P12-
Oregon
Colorado
Utah
SEC-
Texas A&M
Mississippi
Sun Belt-
Appalachian State**
James Madison
WCC-
St. Mary's**
Gonzaga
SMU and UAB are probably toast at this point. Memphis is still a dark horse after a strong finish, but today's loss to FAU almost felt like a play-in game for the Tigers. Charlotte is another team to keep an eye on in the conference tournament. They finished 3rd in AAC, but key losses at the end of the regular season will see them on the outside looking in unless they go on a deep run in the AAC Tournament.
At this point, USF and FAU are locks for the tournament.
A10-
Another sneaky conference to keep an eye on for bid stealers. Dayton, who many have solidly in the tournament, went 3-1 since the creation of this thread, but that loss comes to a team that finished ahead of them in the conference and is somehow still on the outside according to bracketologists, in Loyola, Chicago. In fact, with a win over La Salle today, after Richmond's upset loss to George Mason, the Ramblers could actually SHARE the A10 regular season conference title.
It would be really sad if Dayton and Richmond somehow got in the tournament and Loyola got left out despite winning the regular season title and having the win over Dayton and just a two pt loss to Richmond.
Of course the committee could also throw their hands up and say, nope they'll just be a one-bid league this year.
ACC-
Clemson appears to be a lock at this point, while unsurprisingly, Wake Forest fell off a cliff after poor little Duke cried to the world about their court storming. The Demon Deacons are well on the edge of the bubble according to Lunardi, but surprisingly none of their conference mates have made up much ground either.
Virginia appears to be in with 12 conference wins, despite being the last team on Lunardi's line. Pittsburgh and Syracuse still need to do work, but are definite bubble teams that Iowa will have to contend with. Pitt is in a better spot because they still have a game against NC State today, and can get to that unwritten 21-win magic line. Syracuse is gonna need wins in the ACC tournament and probably some help to sneak in.
NC State is on the outside even if they beat Pitt today. Iowa fans will want to be Wolfpack fans today.
Big East-
