Okay Iowa fans, my name is Jesse and I have a youtube channel about wrestling. I recently did a video I hope yall enjoy. What do yall think are Iowa's chances of catching Penn State for the team title? Let me know where I over or under estimated a wrestlers potential. It's going to be a great season!! WRESTLING IS HERE!!
Can Iowa beat Penn State for team title?
- Thread starter Jesses_Wrestling_Show
- Start date
Okay Iowa fans, my name is Jesse and I have a youtube channel about wrestling. I recently did a video I hope yall enjoy. What do yall think are Iowa's chances of catching Penn State for the team title? Let me know where I over or under estimated a wrestlers potential. It's going to be a great season!! WRESTLING IS HERE!!
Cool. Thanks, Jesse. Who’s your favorite team?
I just subscribed the other day.
Well then, you ain’t so casual. Lol
I am an NC State fan!! But I just love wrestling so I watch Iowa and the Big 10 as much as I can.
I actually just watched your video last night. I'm always up for wrestling opinions from non black and gold bleeders! NC State has definitely been relavant as of late. Good luck with your channel.
As far as beating PSU this year, no if they stay healthy. If I remember last year correctly, Iowa was in the same boat. A lock for a repeat with everyone back, then we got decimated by injury. Don't give the F%n boys the team title just yet.
As far as beating PSU this year, no if they stay healthy. If I remember last year correctly, Iowa was in the same boat. A lock for a repeat with everyone back, then we got decimated by injury. Don't give the F%n boys the team title just yet.
Last edited:
Thank you much appreciated, I have alot to learn but it has been fun. Yep, you have to wrestle the season. And if 1 guy goes down that changes the whole dynamic.
After watching Iowa have unprecedented injuries last year, anything can happen. I was thinking Iowa might break the all-time scoring record in the summer, and by January they were a long shot to win.
A lot can happen in a wrestling season.
Yes, Iowa has a chance.
Welcome Jesse. Should be a fun year.
Uh...."faulter"?
Seriously though, I'd put the chances at about PSU's chances of making the CFP about now.
Iowa is the ONLY team with a "realistic" chance to beat PSU. The problem is, that "realistic" chance needs a lot of things to go right for them and some things not to for PSU.
PSU has RBY, Starroci and Brooks. All of whom are defending 2xers, and they only have 1 or 2 guys with an "ok" chance to beat them in their respective weight classes. Even then, they have NEVER lost to their closest competition(Fix, Mekhi Lewis, Hidlay and Keckeisen). So, they are about as close to a lock for 60+ points from those 3 as it gets.
That leaves them 7 more guys to build on 60+ points. Dean and Kerkvliet are both top 4 guys that I just don't see placing outside of that slot. So they are probably good for another 30+. So, that puts them close to 100, with Steen, Bartlett, Van Ness, 157? and Facundo left to score points. Say, 2 of the 5 AA and they end up around 120 or so. That 120 is everyone wrestling well, but not over the top with bonus points.
So, an "average" performance for PSU should net them about 120. What would it take for Iowa to get to that number?
125: Lee- 26.5 points taking 1st in rather dominant fashion.
133: Teske-8 points and 7th place.
141: Woods- 21 points taking 1st.
149: Murin-8 points and 7th place.
157: DNP
165: Kennedy- 8 points and 7th place.
174: ? For now, I can't give them more than 2 points at this weight.
184: Assad-3 points R12.
197: Warner 18 points and 2nd place.
285: Cass-16 points and 3rd place.
The above only nets 110.5 and that has 3 guys placing, that never have, and 2 others tieing their best ever placements. To get to 120, they would probably need Brands to come back healthy and AA, while at least one of Teske, Murin or Kennedy place at least a couple spots higher than 7th.
With the above said, I just don't see Iowa taking out PSU, unless 1 of PSU's key top 5 guys get injured or some MAJOR upsets happen to PSU that we just haven't seen at NCAA's in quite some time...
PSU has RBY, Starroci and Brooks. All of whom are defending 2xers, and they only have 1 or 2 guys with an "ok" chance to beat them in their respective weight classes. Even then, they have NEVER lost to their closest competition(Fix, Mekhi Lewis, Hidlay and Keckeisen). So, they are about as close to a lock for 60+ points from those 3 as it gets.
That leaves them 7 more guys to build on 60+ points. Dean and Kerkvliet are both top 4 guys that I just don't see placing outside of that slot. So they are probably good for another 30+. So, that puts them close to 100, with Steen, Bartlett, Van Ness, 157? and Facundo left to score points. Say, 2 of the 5 AA and they end up around 120 or so. That 120 is everyone wrestling well, but not over the top with bonus points.
So, an "average" performance for PSU should net them about 120. What would it take for Iowa to get to that number?
125: Lee- 26.5 points taking 1st in rather dominant fashion.
133: Teske-8 points and 7th place.
141: Woods- 21 points taking 1st.
149: Murin-8 points and 7th place.
157: DNP
165: Kennedy- 8 points and 7th place.
174: ? For now, I can't give them more than 2 points at this weight.
184: Assad-3 points R12.
197: Warner 18 points and 2nd place.
285: Cass-16 points and 3rd place.
The above only nets 110.5 and that has 3 guys placing, that never have, and 2 others tieing their best ever placements. To get to 120, they would probably need Brands to come back healthy and AA, while at least one of Teske, Murin or Kennedy place at least a couple spots higher than 7th.
With the above said, I just don't see Iowa taking out PSU, unless 1 of PSU's key top 5 guys get injured or some MAJOR upsets happen to PSU that we just haven't seen at NCAA's in quite some time...
I think we can win with a healthy Spencer who wins his 4th; Real winning; PK, Warner and Cass in the finals (not impossible); and Abe, Murin and one other (likely Teske) taking AA honors. It's tough, but not impossible. I think PK is going to shock people this year.
Would help if Daton Fix showed up on Saturday night and beat RBY as well.
This is a very fair assessment. However, they have the 4 champs who can only fall, no where to score more points. Big Cass has owned lil KerKin and I guess we will find out soon if that continues. That will be big for the HAWKS!
Also Warner taking out dizzy dean is a place where we pick up a few points. Now you look at the other weights with new faces, and at least on paper as of right now. IOWA has an edge to score more. Woods is the Real deal!!! Kennedy is someone who could put up some points that are not predicted.
Brands, Assad, Teske all would need to do what us fans believe they can. YES a very tall order, but it is what they live for!
The Ironbird likes!!!
Going into last season, 83% of the folks out there said PSU didn't have much of a chance to catch Iowa. Going by that alone, I'd never say Iowa has no chance this year. Shit happens..
Kerk finished 4th last year(and, would have finished 3rd had he not injury defaulted out of the 3rd place match) so he most certainly has room to move up especially with Stevenson gone. Warner is a guy who could just as easily finish 4th or 5th as he does of getting back into the finals. PSU could pick up a decent amount of points at 149 and 165 which I believe they only got 2 points combined from these 2 weights combined in 2022 so they can certainly topple that in 2023.
Last edited:
Iowa could win but it would require a perfect storm. Lee, woods, Warner and Cass all have the ability to win. Lee and woods should (141 is weakkkkkkkk) and warner/Cass will have outside shots. Need aa finishes at 149, 165 and 184 at minimum to have a chance.
How it could happen. Not all of this needs to happen at each weight, but a combo of it will.
125-Lee needs to win and bonus 4/5 of his opponents. PSU needs to score zero points
133- Teske needs to place and it would be nice if Fix beat RBY
141-Woods needs to win and Bartlett needs to stay off the stand
149-Murin placing 5th and SVN staying off the stand
157- no points for either team
165- PK top 5 and Fucundo staying off the stand
174-Brands finding the stand and Lewis beating Carter.
184-Assad finding the stand and Trent or Parker beating Brooks
197-Warner placing higher then Dean
285 Cass placing higher then Kerk
If these things happen in iowas favor and not in PSU. Then Iowa has a chance.
125-Lee needs to win and bonus 4/5 of his opponents. PSU needs to score zero points
133- Teske needs to place and it would be nice if Fix beat RBY
141-Woods needs to win and Bartlett needs to stay off the stand
149-Murin placing 5th and SVN staying off the stand
157- no points for either team
165- PK top 5 and Fucundo staying off the stand
174-Brands finding the stand and Lewis beating Carter.
184-Assad finding the stand and Trent or Parker beating Brooks
197-Warner placing higher then Dean
285 Cass placing higher then Kerk
If these things happen in iowas favor and not in PSU. Then Iowa has a chance.
Doutfull, but I'll be rooting for all the season. Go Hawks!!!
Glory, Courtney and deagastino are the only three that I can realistically see going 7 minutes with Lee. Glory is the only one who has a chance at keeping it to a decision if Lee is 100%
Lee won't be 100% , if he could be , no one has a chance of keeping it to a decision.
No.
But we can make it close.
It’ll take us and the rest of ncaa upsetting lions in March.
Hoping we see a new approach to peaking.
Treat the regular season as practice, even big ten. When guys match up with a psu guy at Big Tens finals, they need to play around a bit and see what works and doesn’t work, no big deal.
Than come March add in something a bit different that psu won’t expect.
Example, Warner working on that tilt that won him the Buchanan match. Didn’t see that til March. Could be the difference.
But we can make it close.
It’ll take us and the rest of ncaa upsetting lions in March.
Hoping we see a new approach to peaking.
Treat the regular season as practice, even big ten. When guys match up with a psu guy at Big Tens finals, they need to play around a bit and see what works and doesn’t work, no big deal.
Than come March add in something a bit different that psu won’t expect.
Example, Warner working on that tilt that won him the Buchanan match. Didn’t see that til March. Could be the difference.
Iowa needs to figure out how to keep their team healthy, get some help from PSU losses, have a couple Hawks overachieve, and they have a long shot chance.
Edit to add:
Iowa keeping guys healthy feels unlikely.
Penn State guys getting upset feels unlikely.
Edit to add:
Iowa keeping guys healthy feels unlikely.
Penn State guys getting upset feels unlikely.
What is a more likely scenario: Iowa beats Penn state to win it all, or mizzou places ahead of Iowa taking 2nd place overall?
I don't pretend to have the knowledge base as most here and I do admit I'm a PSU fan and pretty bandwagon ish since I didn't watch as much when PSU was back in the pack. In my defense I still find it hard to remember to watch or record the matches. It's not like we get it shoved in our faces like college football.
Tonight made it pretty clear on why I said no chance. We don't rise to the occasion and they do and some major league rising to the occasion would have to happen on our end along with flopping on their end. Not happening.
Looking ahead, Warner has been hot and cold at times but all in all a tough out. Just think how we are going to look at 197 next year. Hoping to qualify may be the reality.
It's November. It's early. I said before this match that I was glad Warner would see Elam before NCAA's. He's a great athlete that has a great angle on his single leg. I didn't like the match-up when the change was made, but then I realized that it's good he's seeing it now rather than in a Semi-final match. Warner can win that match as well as beat anybody at that weight class. Yes, there are 4 or 5 guys at that weight class that can beat each other. It simply depends on the day. My answer is still yes, Iowa can beat Penn State. Are we favored no, but can we pull it out, yes--we are close enough to make it happen. It's a long season and goodness knows last year we had our share of misfortune, so let's hope we stay healthy and give it hell. It's going to be a good dual meet as well! Go Hawks!
Wish I could share your optimism. PSU just seems to keep improving and widening the gap.
Hope like hell I'm wrong!
I do not see where you see widened the gap? They were favored in their matches and won close matches. Nothing that can not be addressed.
NOTE: To the F-in coaches, clearly there style is, get an early TD, and STALL ride! They overlay(ride the near ankle) MAYBE watch some videos of how to counter!?!?!?Exploding off bottom and not letting them run you outa bounds would be a great start! Hit a flying switch, Grandby roll, front flip..... DON'T go out without trying something!!!
