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Can Someone on the Right Explain the Best Case Scenario for Trumps Tariff Plan?

This is the idea except that the last line that the costs will go down. In tariff environments even domestic producers increase their prices because they can.

Also the thing that isn't being discussed is the climate for corruption. Because in a tariff environment if I can bribe my way to an exception I can get huge economic advantages over my competitors.
I agree. I just find the whole ideal that his economic policy is based on all these tariffs and followers believe that costs will go down absurd.

If you think through the whole thing, there is no chance this doesn’t lead to massive inflation. Logically tariffs raise prices on things….
 
Yup. I have to admit. I never thought, "You think your life sucks now, wait until you get a load of what WE have planned!!!" would actually work as a closing message. It's one of several things that don't make any sense but evidently we aren't going to bother checking into any of these things so here we are. MAGA's are about to get everything they voted for and I think Democrats should pretty much let them have it. Unfortunately it will suck for us too, but it doesn't matter how many times they are warned they just won't believe it.
I believe in the power of the people. The people clearly want this. Trump has the mandate. So get to work, Donny. Deport 20 million people, give us all massive tariffs, end the income tax and replace it with a 20% consumer tax, do it all. Don't chicken out on your promises.
 

The administration has been reviewing tariffs on Chinese goods since President Biden took office — steep duties on about $370 billion of imports from China each year, put in place by former President Donald Trump as one of his signature policy moves.

The Biden administration has decided to keep those Trump tariffs in place — and in addition, add a range of strategic items to the list. The decision was first reported by Bloomberg.
 
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Imagine thinking people were better off the last 4 years compared to the previous 4 years. Then seeing people say they were not happy with the direction the country was going in and decided to vote for someone else. Yet these people still think the sky is falling. This county is stupid beyond belief.
Oh, my family is certainly better off at the end of the Biden times compared to the end of the drump times. No question.
If your family isn’t better off, buckle down Sonny boy. It is your fault.
 

The administration has been reviewing tariffs on Chinese goods since President Biden took office — steep duties on about $370 billion of imports from China each year, put in place by former President Donald Trump as one of his signature policy moves.

The Biden administration has decided to keep those Trump tariffs in place — and in addition, add a range of strategic items to the list. The decision was first reported by Bloomberg.
Getting rid of tariffs is far more difficult than putting them in place because you have to get the other country to agree to remove their counter-tariffs as well or you really put American goods at a disadvantage. Now, I don't know if that's why they were never removed or not but I'm betting that was a big part of it.
 
a man in a suit is talking into a microphone with the words man did you see how woke i was
 
Oh, my family is certainly better off at the end of the Biden times compared to the end of the drump times. No question.
If your family isn’t better off, buckle down Sonny boy. It is your fault.
You better buckle down because the country is going into dictatorship. I’m on his side so I’ll reap all the benefits. It’s all your fault you don’t want to be on the right side and better yourself.
 
You better buckle down because the country is going into dictatorship. I’m on his side so I’ll reap all the benefits. It’s all your fault you don’t want to be on the right side and better yourself.
Zzzz.
Maybe I should have used the old trope and suggested grabbing the bootstraps…
 
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The administration has been reviewing tariffs on Chinese goods since President Biden took office — steep duties on about $370 billion of imports from China each year, put in place by former President Donald Trump as one of his signature policy moves.

The Biden administration has decided to keep those Trump tariffs in place — and in addition, add a range of strategic items to the list. The decision was first reported by Bloomberg.
Targeted tariffs are often offset by tax credits and other tax breaks to alleviate the effect of the tariff on domestic companies. Targeted tariffs have been used for as long as I can remember, and we have seen them used in recent years with tariffs placed on electric vehicle components and solar panels (which have been offset by various other tax benefits)

Totally different policy from blanket tariffs. There is a reason no other presidential candidate has proposed it in recent memory - because it is an objectively awful idea.
 
I believe in the power of the people. The people clearly want this. Trump has the mandate. So get to work, Donny. Deport 20 million people, give us all massive tariffs, end the income tax and replace it with a 20% consumer tax, do it all. Don't chicken out on your promises.
This. Dems need to get out of the way and let Trump and his people do it. America wants this, so let them have it and face the results.
 
Funny how many countries, including China, have tariffs on US goods and yet the lemmings on here parrot the bullshit about it being a tax on our consumers if we return the favor.

Hey dipshits, perhaps a tariff in goods from China empowers other countries to develop their manufacturing and workforce to compete on the global stage. Perhaps China can eliminate competition through scale and human rights violations and a tariff would let a country like Mexico to step in and meet demand or at least catch up to the Chinese on certain products.

A tariff is not a tax on the US consumer unless you believe China is the only place in the world that can meet demand.
 
Here's the real plan as I understand it.

Today, If we want to sell our cars in China (Chevy, Ford, etc.), they'll charge us a triple digit tariff, so we can't do it. We could make them there, but the Chinese government has to own like 51% of the business.

As an example of a tariff the other way, we put a 25% tariff on foreign made pickup trucks. Toyota doesn't want to pay the tariff, so instead they make the pickup trucks here. It provides us jobs, and they get to sell trucks.

There are a number of industries where we could probably do this kind of thing.

I do think it will have some impact on prices, but it's not going to result in massive inflation. I do still believe the inflationary effect will negatively impact consumer prices. I don't know if it'll be noticeable. It's noticeable that right now groceries are much more expensive than they were in 2019-2020, unnaturally more expensive. I would hope there isn't that effect. Some are predicting a deflationary effect in other segments, like housing.

Time will tell. I'm very confident Trump and his advisors will be more equipped to handle shifts to the economy in a way that's favorable to the American people than the Biden admin was. I do think there may be some uncomfortable reckoning to do with the situation Trump is left with, but time will tell. I'll wait until his 4 years are up to assess.
 
Like if everything somehow went tremendously well, what’s the goal and how does it work?

Thanks in advance.
I’m not a fan of tariffs at all, but they exist for a reason. If he strategically targets specific countries/products to try to grow/protect US production some of those could be long-term successful (there’s a reason Biden never pulled the chip manufacturing tariffs). If he applies generally across the board to everything vs. strategic hits, it’s going to blow up in his face.

Tariffs literally have 1 job - to raise the price of imports. They are inflationary by design.
 
Here's the real plan as I understand it.

Today, If we want to sell our cars in China (Chevy, Ford, etc.), they'll charge us a triple digit tariff, so we can't do it. We could make them there, but the Chinese government has to own like 51% of the business.

As an example of a tariff the other way, we put a 25% tariff on foreign made pickup trucks. Toyota doesn't want to pay the tariff, so instead they make the pickup trucks here. It provides us jobs, and they get to sell trucks.

There are a number of industries where we could probably do this kind of thing.

I do think it will have some impact on prices, but it's not going to result in massive inflation. I do still believe the inflationary effect will negatively impact consumer prices. I don't know if it'll be noticeable. It's noticeable that right now groceries are much more expensive than they were in 2019-2020, unnaturally more expensive. I would hope there isn't that effect. Some are predicting a deflationary effect in other segments, like housing.

Time will tell. I'm very confident Trump and his advisors will be more equipped to handle shifts to the economy in a way that's favorable to the American people than the Biden admin was. I do think there may be some uncomfortable reckoning to do with the situation Trump is left with, but time will tell. I'll wait until his 4 years are up to assess.
4 years? He will have 2 and then the House will be up for grabs again. Nobody will give him 4 years. Americans have very little patience. And don't forget the fact, Profits above everything else for da corporations.
 
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Well, what is sure to happen is that when the economy goes up the democrats will claim that the Republicans are taking credit for the recovery they started. It's as certain as the sunrise.

Now as far as tariffs are concerned, I suspect it will help bring back jobs to the US that are currently elsewhere. As others have said, there is currently an EV tax credit. These are dependent on each vehicle that is purchased. Certain country of origin requirements need to be met to qualify. If these aren't net, you don't get the tax credit. These are in fact a tariff of sorts already. These had the goal of bringing back manufacturing to the US. Whether or not this has been effective is TBD.

"Vehicles must be assembled in North America to be eligible. Granted, a lot of automakers pushing new battery electric cars are building plants stateside; however, that doesn’t help buyers who are eyeing vehicles being sold on product cycles today. For example, the Hyundai Ioniq 5 would be ineligible for the credit since the EV is built at Hyundai’s Ulsan plant in South Korea. This puts manufacturers that have already begun assembling vehicles in North America at an advantage, meaning buyers may seek out options like the Ford Mustang Mach-E, which is built at the Ford Cuautitlán Assembly in Mexico, or the Volkswagen ID.4 that’s built in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

Assembly location is only one part of the eligibility requirements. Next come the battery components, of which a lot must also come from North America.

The legislation’s sourcing requirements break up battery components into two different categories: mineral and non-mineral. At least 40 percent of non-mineral components must be sourced in either North America or from one of the 20 countries that the U.S. has entered into a free trade agreement with by 2023. Come 2029, 100 percent of all materials must be sourced from these origins. On the battery mineral front, at least 40 percent of the minerals sourced for the battery cells must be sourced from North America or the same free trade countries described earlier in 2023. This volume also increases year over year until it reaches 80 percent in 2027.

To make things even more complicated, starting in 2025, any vehicles that have minerals sourced or processed from locations that the U.S. have deemed “countries of particular concern”—namely, China and Russia—would become immediately ineligible. This could be alarming and potentially disruptive for automakers that have parent companies or assembly locations in China, such as Polestar."

Source:
 
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I also suspect that some of this tariff talk from Trump will be used as a negotiating ploy as much as anything.
 
I do think it will have some impact on prices, but it's not going to result in massive inflation. I do still believe the inflationary effect will negatively impact consumer prices. I don't know if it'll be noticeable. It's noticeable that right now groceries are much more expensive than they were in 2019-2020, unnaturally more expensive. I would hope there isn't that effect. Some are predicting a deflationary effect in other segments, like housing.

Time will tell. I'm very confident Trump and his advisors will be more equipped to handle shifts to the economy in a way that's favorable to the American people than the Biden admin was. I do think there may be some uncomfortable reckoning to do with the situation Trump is left with, but time will tell. I'll wait until his 4 years are up to assess.
As of 2022 17.9% of US goods were imported by China. If Trump follows through on his 60% tariff that is the equivalent of raising prices on US buyers by 10.7%. And that is assuming that US mfgs don’t raise their prices accordingly. Then we have the tariffs he has promised on all other imports on top of that.

You can say “it’s not going to result in massive inflation”, but most economists predict it will. As you say time will tell….personally my guess is Trump won’t do the full tariff thing because someone smarter than him will tell him he will lose the house and senate in 26 if he does.
 
My take is as follows. As long as trade is conducted with friendly countries tariffs aren't necessary. But in case of a hostile entity whose intent is for you to cease existing, it would be silly to continue trading with them like everything is just fine, particularly in a one-sided (trade deficit is insanely one-sided) manner -- you would simply be funding your enemy and strenghtening them day by day until they are in a position to carry out their wish to kick your ass. So you basically accept some short-term price hits for long-term victory and significant concessions in the interim.
 
Well, what is sure to happen is that when the economy goes up the democrats will claim that the Republicans are taking credit for the recovery they started. It's as certain as the sunrise.

Now as far as tariffs are concerned, I suspect it will help bring back jobs to the US that are currently elsewhere. As others have said, there is currently an EV tax credit. These are dependent on each vehicle that is purchased. Certain country of origin requirements need to be met to qualify. If these aren't net, you don't get the tax credit. These are in fact a tariff of sorts already. These had the goal of bringing back manufacturing to the US. Whether or not this has been effective is TBD.

"Vehicles must be assembled in North America to be eligible. Granted, a lot of automakers pushing new battery electric cars are building plants stateside; however, that doesn’t help buyers who are eyeing vehicles being sold on product cycles today. For example, the Hyundai Ioniq 5 would be ineligible for the credit since the EV is built at Hyundai’s Ulsan plant in South Korea. This puts manufacturers that have already begun assembling vehicles in North America at an advantage, meaning buyers may seek out options like the Ford Mustang Mach-E, which is built at the Ford Cuautitlán Assembly in Mexico, or the Volkswagen ID.4 that’s built in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

Assembly location is only one part of the eligibility requirements. Next come the battery components, of which a lot must also come from North America.

The legislation’s sourcing requirements break up battery components into two different categories: mineral and non-mineral. At least 40 percent of non-mineral components must be sourced in either North America or from one of the 20 countries that the U.S. has entered into a free trade agreement with by 2023. Come 2029, 100 percent of all materials must be sourced from these origins. On the battery mineral front, at least 40 percent of the minerals sourced for the battery cells must be sourced from North America or the same free trade countries described earlier in 2023. This volume also increases year over year until it reaches 80 percent in 2027.

To make things even more complicated, starting in 2025, any vehicles that have minerals sourced or processed from locations that the U.S. have deemed “countries of particular concern”—namely, China and Russia—would become immediately ineligible. This could be alarming and potentially disruptive for automakers that have parent companies or assembly locations in China, such as Polestar."

Source:
I have a lot of money in my 401k. I hope to hell the economy keeps doing well. But let's face facts. If Trump only gets half his wishes for tariffs we are very likely looking at a recession.
 
Well I already wasn’t filthy rich nor reaping anything. You get that, right?
I'm just saying. Trump's tariffs would drive prices up for a good portion of everything you buy. Unless you're rich enough to benefit from his rich tax cuts to offset these increased prices, you're very likely to be poorer under Trump.
 
The best way to increase exports is to increase savings (don't borrow, so end budget deficits/pay down Nat. Debt)

Savings-Investment=Exports-Imports

Trump wants to raise tariffs by 10% on everybody but China and he wants to raise them 60% on China. Most of the stuff we buy from China will move the production to other countries and not the US.

I am against raising the tariffs on any country other than China. On China, I would demand China demilitraize the S. China Sea and if they didn't, then raise tariffs 1% every month on all Chinese imports. Leave it at a 1% raise/month for 3 months, then double it to a 2% raise/month for 3 months, then 4% for 3 months, then 8% for 3 months, etc.

The goal is to end all commerce with China within 3 years and bankrupt China. The US made China rich and the US can bankrupt China.

99% of what we buy from China could be made in Mexico, India, etc.
 
Well, what is sure to happen is that when the economy goes up the democrats will claim that the Republicans are taking credit for the recovery they started. It's as certain as the sunrise.

Now as far as tariffs are concerned, I suspect it will help bring back jobs to the US that are currently elsewhere. As others have said, there is currently an EV tax credit. These are dependent on each vehicle that is purchased. Certain country of origin requirements need to be met to qualify. If these aren't net, you don't get the tax credit. These are in fact a tariff of sorts already. These had the goal of bringing back manufacturing to the US. Whether or not this has been effective is TBD.

"Vehicles must be assembled in North America to be eligible. Granted, a lot of automakers pushing new battery electric cars are building plants stateside; however, that doesn’t help buyers who are eyeing vehicles being sold on product cycles today. For example, the Hyundai Ioniq 5 would be ineligible for the credit since the EV is built at Hyundai’s Ulsan plant in South Korea. This puts manufacturers that have already begun assembling vehicles in North America at an advantage, meaning buyers may seek out options like the Ford Mustang Mach-E, which is built at the Ford Cuautitlán Assembly in Mexico, or the Volkswagen ID.4 that’s built in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

Assembly location is only one part of the eligibility requirements. Next come the battery components, of which a lot must also come from North America.

The legislation’s sourcing requirements break up battery components into two different categories: mineral and non-mineral. At least 40 percent of non-mineral components must be sourced in either North America or from one of the 20 countries that the U.S. has entered into a free trade agreement with by 2023. Come 2029, 100 percent of all materials must be sourced from these origins. On the battery mineral front, at least 40 percent of the minerals sourced for the battery cells must be sourced from North America or the same free trade countries described earlier in 2023. This volume also increases year over year until it reaches 80 percent in 2027.

To make things even more complicated, starting in 2025, any vehicles that have minerals sourced or processed from locations that the U.S. have deemed “countries of particular concern”—namely, China and Russia—would become immediately ineligible. This could be alarming and potentially disruptive for automakers that have parent companies or assembly locations in China, such as Polestar."

Source:
Did you know most cars are actually assembled in US/N.A. already? it's far cheaper to bring the parts here and then put together the final product, than it is to ship them via cargo ship.
The best way to increase exports is to increase savings (don't borrow, so end budget deficits/pay down Nat. Debt)

Savings-Investment=Exports-Imports

Trump wants to raise tariffs by 10% on everybody but China and he wants to raise them 60% on China. Most of the stuff we buy from China will move the production to other countries and not the US.

I am against raising the tariffs on any country other than China. On China, I would demand China demilitraize the S. China Sea and if they didn't, then raise tariffs 1% every month on all Chinese imports. Leave it at a 1% raise/month for 3 months, then double it to a 2% raise/month for 3 months, then 4% for 3 months, then 8% for 3 months, etc.

The goal is to end all commerce with China within 3 years and bankrupt China. The US made China rich and the US can bankrupt China.

99% of what we buy from China could be made in Mexico, India, etc.

This might be the silliest economic proposal I've ever seen.
 
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Did you know most cars are actually assembled in US/N.A. already? it's far cheaper to bring the parts here and then put together the final product, than it is to ship them via cargo ship.


This might be the silliest economic proposal I've ever seen.
If the US increases savings by ending budget deficits, it would involve raising taxes and cutting spending. By doing that people have less money. If people have less money they spend less money. If people spend less money, then the purchases of imports go down. It is that fricking simple.

Rarely in this chat room does anybody talk about it because it is inconvenient. We all want more tax cuts and more gov spending. We all want something for nothing and then wonder why the country is on the wrong track.

Truman, Ike and Bill Clinton each balanced the budget 3 times and the econ. and markets boomed each time.
 
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