Looking at line ups for next 4-5 years I don't see how we beat Penn State without a few more stud commits.
Can we win a National Title without Hall or Lee in our line up in the next 5 years?
- Thread starter WiscHawkFan75
- Start date
Why not? It is not like they are only going to place one guy at Lee's weight and Hall's weight. Somewhere along the line the Hawks will need a couple finalists and if not Hall or Lee (assuming they live up to the hype) it will be someone else. If they don't get those two or either of them, they will get someone to place at those weights.
Nope. Not a chance in hell. If we don't get them, fold up shop and send the kids home.
Off the top of my head:
2015-2016 6 AA's (1 - 4 finalists)
125 - Gilman JR
133 - Clark JR
141 - Carton JR/Grothus SR/Turk TRFR
149 - Sorensen SO
157 - Rhoads SR/Cooper SR/Grothus SR/Kemmerer TRFR
165 - Paddock RSFR
174 - Meyer JR
184 - Brooks JR
197 - Burak SR
285 - Stoll RSFR
2016-2017 7 AA's (2 - 5 finalists)
125 - Gilman SR
133 - Clark SR
141 - Turk RSFR/Carton SR
149 - Sorensen JR
157 - Kemmerer RSFR
165 - Paddock SO/Marinelli TRFR
174 - Meyer SR
184 - Brooks SR
197 - Holloway RSFR
285 - Stoll SO
2017-2018 6 AA's (1 - ? finalists)
125 - Mejia RSFR
133 - Renteria RSFR
141 - Turk SO
149 - Sorensen SR
157 - Kemmerrer SO
165 - Marinelli RSFR
174 - Paddock JR
184 - Wilcke SO
197 - Holloway SO
HWT - Stoll JR
IMO - We definitely have an outside shot, kind of like last season, but we'll need some breaks, but top 3 in all 3 years I noted. Hard telling without going through other teams lineups though...
Last edited:
At some point though, we'll need a unicorn or two for bonus points or need 8-10 AAs which some predict every year but rarely happens. We have some very good talent coming in but not a next level Metcalf, DT, Ruth, Streibler etc, at least imho.
BTW, I just don't think we'll get Hall. Reading the tea leaves, it looks like it's down to tOSU, Minne or Nebraska. Who knows...the kid plays it close to the vest. Iowa would be great for him because it's the exact area he needs to toughen up in. Handfighting, ties etc...his technique and defense is ready to go.
17-18 paddock will move up to 74. Young might be at that weight also. Iowa will always be fine, problem is psu keeps recruiting top level guys at every weight. Hard to beat that.
Ah, so 157 Kemmerer/Young, 165 Kemmerer/Young, then 174 - Paddock. That fills the hole, thanks.
While it sure seems like both Lee and Hall are as high caliber prospects as there can be at this stage...you still never really know what you are getting when you bring in a 17 or 18 year old to college campus. I think any fan anywhere would crack a big smile if their team signed either or both of these guys, but that alone doesn't guarantee any team titles down the road.
That being said, I do very much agree with the statement above...you really need at least 2-3 major points scoring studs on your team and then another 3-5 pretty salty mid-to-high AA types. Realistically, there are very few occasions where any team is placing 8 or more AA's and even then a 7th or 8th placer doesn't add up very fast. You have to have guys in the finals and/or racking up bonus points along the way to say a 3rd place finish, etc.
But...we might already have those guys coming in now. It would be great though to add another very high end prospect.
Yes we can. It would certainly help to get those guys though. For all we know Marenilli might end up having a better career than Hall, and Kemerer might be a two time champ. It's hard to speculate when they're still in high school.
Excellent observation. In recent tourneys, we have also seen guys that got knocked into the backside and looked like they just gave up. Moore and DSJ being two. I remember 2000, I believe, when TJ and Doug lost and came back on fire on the backside. Mentality!
In short...no. I think Iowa has to have 1 of the 2 in order to win it as a team in the next 5 years. Mostly because if you don't get them, either Ohio State or Penn State will by default.
An Iowa line-up without Lee or Hall will not beat a Penn State Line-up with: Lee Suriano,Cortez, Retherford, Cenzo, Nolf, Nickal, Nevills and crew.
An Iowa line-up not featuring Lee or Hall will not beat a Ohio State Line-up featuring: Nato, Snyder, Hall, Pletcher, Hayes, Jordan and crew.
I honestly don't think you have a chance at Hall. (Just an opinion, nothing at all backing that up), which means Iowa has an awful lot of eggs in the Lee bucket. (Which I do think you have a good chance of getting)
An Iowa line-up without Lee or Hall will not beat a Penn State Line-up with: Lee Suriano,Cortez, Retherford, Cenzo, Nolf, Nickal, Nevills and crew.
An Iowa line-up not featuring Lee or Hall will not beat a Ohio State Line-up featuring: Nato, Snyder, Hall, Pletcher, Hayes, Jordan and crew.
I honestly don't think you have a chance at Hall. (Just an opinion, nothing at all backing that up), which means Iowa has an awful lot of eggs in the Lee bucket. (Which I do think you have a good chance of getting)
I try to be respectful and courteous but this is rediculous. Of course we have a chance every year. Studs and loaded teams fail all the time. Just because PSU or any schools signs someone does not mean it pans out. There is no reliable way to make any educated guesses on teams or finishes more than current season. Any production about one day past NCAA finals has very little chance of being actuate. I believe people judge Caels coaching ability based on Taylor and Ruth as if he took lead and turned t to gold. Yes, he is a great coach but he has his weakness and struggles like everyone. Getting the guys is only the beginning. Getting them developed and hitting potential is the real deal. Injuries, transfers and other things play an enormous part of outcome. I love discussion but let's try to keep some level of reality would be nice.
Easy...shiny dome. Glares on TV if the lights reflect it just right
Yeah, Cael's hairline defintely took a loss or two in it's day. Seriously doubt it even reached AA status but that's debateable.
You have your opinion and I have mine. That's ok. I feel that if Iowa lands neither of those two and PSU or TOSU lands one then Iowa will not beat them anytime soon. What you are saying about developing talent is certainly true...but I think the game is different than it was even 10 years ago. Recruits are more exposed, have more access to top level technique from an early age, top level guys like Hall and Lee are a lot less of a gamble. Hall would be an All American right now. He has already beaten top level College guys. Lee is a world champ in two different age divisions and teched a returning world champ en route. Could they flop, yea, its possible, injuries happen (Altons) but it's a lot less likely to have a top guy not pan out than it was 10 years ago.
I feel that in today's college wrestling climate you almost need to have guys who can step in and be top 3 right away in order to win it. (Ohio State: Nato, Jordan, Snyder, Penn State: Rutherford or before that NIco as a freshman or before that DT and Ruth). IMHO if Iowa gets neither Hall or Lee, and one of them goes to either PSU or TOSU the will be significantly behind.
Plus it's not like either Cael or Tom Ryan have shown trouble in getting guys developed and hitting potential. So yea, I feel like that's pretty realistic.
RELAX. The future is bright. We have Mejia and Renteria committed for 125 and 133. Turk at 141 is going tobe much better then his #47 ranking. BS and Kemerer(top 10 recruit) at 149/157. Martinelli at 165 (top 3 recruit). Wilcke is going to surprise people when he's down at 184. Holloway at 197 just beat two guys rated higher then him this summer, one being Hunter Ritter. Stoll(top 15 recruit) has been working hard all summer. I'm sure there will be more on the way. We will be just FINE.
Most of the folks here are well past elementary school. We have a pretty good understanding of how this thing works. Some of us have even been around long enough to know that shit happens on the way to the top of the podium. I think I'll stick with that for the time being and let the chips fall where they may....................
In Summary: I'm gonna keep watching just in case you're wrong............................
Hate to say it, but I agree with this take. These days, you need some flat-out studs in your lineup to win it all. Yes, any team with 9 or 10 AA's will have a great shot at a team title, but that's darn rare. The formula these days is to have a couple of massive point-scorers who are virtually guaranteed champs, like Taylor/Ruth and Streibler. Sure, coaching is important, but the very cream of the crop could win their national titles wrestling at Slippery Rock. While coaching has its place, these elite talents don't need much.
Well, you have to identify them, land them, then hope they stay in school, don't get injured, live up to the hype, yada, yada, yada. Iowa alone has had many a high school "legend" that went completely belly-up upon arrival. All of these things are great in theory, and after the fact, in reality it's a little bit tougher. IMO.
I guess the trick is to land a whole bunch of can't miss studs and let the percentages carry the day.....................
Recruit 10 studs. If 5 of them pan out you'll win NCAAs.
Easier said than done. But that seems to be the paradigm of this decade so far.
Easier said than done. But that seems to be the paradigm of this decade so far.
I think it could be done. Look at our lineups the last 5 years that finished 3-3-4-4-2. I believe that all of these teams legitimately competed for a national title. And none of those lineups really had a superstar recruit like Lee or Hall on it. Sure we didn't win it because teams with super star recruits won, but I think we generally underperformed as a team during that stretch and had realistic shots to win with our studs developed from non top 10 recruits, last year being the exception, it was not a horrible performance, but not the best but underperformed a little, and Ohio state over performed a pinch, and everybody else seemed to underperform a lot vs them at the tournament.... but i'll not get into that 
remember we tied them at the B1Gs, I believe the squads were relatively even.
Maybe its the eternal Hawkeye optimist in me but I think this team will always contend for a title and be capable of winning in March with TnT as head coach. That being said, we WILL get 1 of the 2.
remember we tied them at the B1Gs, I believe the squads were relatively even. Maybe its the eternal Hawkeye optimist in me but I think this team will always contend for a title and be capable of winning in March with TnT as head coach. That being said, we WILL get 1 of the 2.
Honestly, I think the 2015-2016 season ends as a top 5 team, but I don't think they have the firepower to overcome, PSU, Okie State, and maybe not tOSU even without Synder.
However the 2016-2017 season I think the Hawks have a fantastic shot at winning the whole thing. PSU will be losing Nico, McIntosh, and Conaway without anything proven to replace them with. Okie loses Ringer and Mardsen again without proven replacements. Those are some big shoes to fill.
Meanwhile the Hawkeyes will be posed for their best lineup in years with the potential for another big time recruit to still be added:
125- Gilman, Senior. Title threat
133- Clark. Senior. Title threat
141- Turk. RSFR/Soph. Top 50 recruit here with a high ceiling, or perhaps an immediate impact Freshman commits such as Chad Red or Veteran Topher Carton.
149- Sorenson. JR. High AA, darkhorse title threat.
157- Kemerer. RSFR/Soph. Top 10 recruit with high ceiling.
165- Marinelli. TR FR. Top 3 recruit with very high ceiling. I know everyone like to RS, but not when a National Championship is on the line. The other option is Paddock who will be a Soph, Marinelli will be ready as a Freshmen and TnT will not be able to resist when a team title is so close to be had.
174- Meyer. SR. Ready to be a high AA by this point.
184- Brooks. SR. Grinder is a mid range AA.
197- Holloway/Wilcke. RSFR
Hvy- Stoll. Soph. Top 15 recruit, will have a learning year under his belt in the Big Ten and will be ready for a jump to the big time. He Marinelli, Turk, and Kemerer are the wildcards in a sensational lineup.
That lineup can win it all. No doubt about it. 197 is the only spot that might be construed as a "hole."
However the 2016-2017 season I think the Hawks have a fantastic shot at winning the whole thing. PSU will be losing Nico, McIntosh, and Conaway without anything proven to replace them with. Okie loses Ringer and Mardsen again without proven replacements. Those are some big shoes to fill.
Meanwhile the Hawkeyes will be posed for their best lineup in years with the potential for another big time recruit to still be added:
125- Gilman, Senior. Title threat
133- Clark. Senior. Title threat
141- Turk. RSFR/Soph. Top 50 recruit here with a high ceiling, or perhaps an immediate impact Freshman commits such as Chad Red or Veteran Topher Carton.
149- Sorenson. JR. High AA, darkhorse title threat.
157- Kemerer. RSFR/Soph. Top 10 recruit with high ceiling.
165- Marinelli. TR FR. Top 3 recruit with very high ceiling. I know everyone like to RS, but not when a National Championship is on the line. The other option is Paddock who will be a Soph, Marinelli will be ready as a Freshmen and TnT will not be able to resist when a team title is so close to be had.
174- Meyer. SR. Ready to be a high AA by this point.
184- Brooks. SR. Grinder is a mid range AA.
197- Holloway/Wilcke. RSFR
Hvy- Stoll. Soph. Top 15 recruit, will have a learning year under his belt in the Big Ten and will be ready for a jump to the big time. He Marinelli, Turk, and Kemerer are the wildcards in a sensational lineup.
That lineup can win it all. No doubt about it. 197 is the only spot that might be construed as a "hole."
Last edited:
I think our lineup this season can win it all as well, and many are writing the hawks off.
125 Gilman Title threat - Top 3
133 Clark Title Threat - Top 2
141 Carton - 1-2 or 2-2
149 Sorensen Title threat - Top 3
157 Cooper 2-2 maybe R16 or R12
165 Paddock 2-2 maybe R16 or R12
174 Meyer Mid to High AA Top 5
184 Brooks Mid to High AA Top 5
197 Burak High AA Top 3
285 2-2 maybe R16 or R12
Just guesses without really knowing how 141, 157, 165, and 285 will perform in varsity action. Also the possibility of Grothus at 141, which I would put at low to mid AA 5-8. That would really add the strength we need to put us over the top I believe, 7 AA's and at least 2 finalists, and one champ Clark. I think that Clark can and will beat Brewer, he needs to set up his shots like he did when he actually scored a takedown in the finals. I think Gilman and Sorensen can be champs but have a tougher road facing Megaludis/Tomasello and Tsirtsis/Retherford. I hope one of them at least can make the finals, if they both do then awesome! But if not then they need 3rd.
I don't think it is at all unrealistic to think that can contend with OkSt and PSU. Who i consider the frontrunners along with us, with tOSU a step behind with the shirting of Snyder and H.Stieber coming off of two major elbow surgeries, one Tommy john on each elbow, expected to be back January. We'll see how that turns out if he can return to form or not.
125 Gilman Title threat - Top 3
133 Clark Title Threat - Top 2
141 Carton - 1-2 or 2-2
149 Sorensen Title threat - Top 3
157 Cooper 2-2 maybe R16 or R12
165 Paddock 2-2 maybe R16 or R12
174 Meyer Mid to High AA Top 5
184 Brooks Mid to High AA Top 5
197 Burak High AA Top 3
285 2-2 maybe R16 or R12
Just guesses without really knowing how 141, 157, 165, and 285 will perform in varsity action. Also the possibility of Grothus at 141, which I would put at low to mid AA 5-8. That would really add the strength we need to put us over the top I believe, 7 AA's and at least 2 finalists, and one champ Clark. I think that Clark can and will beat Brewer, he needs to set up his shots like he did when he actually scored a takedown in the finals. I think Gilman and Sorensen can be champs but have a tougher road facing Megaludis/Tomasello and Tsirtsis/Retherford. I hope one of them at least can make the finals, if they both do then awesome! But if not then they need 3rd.
I don't think it is at all unrealistic to think that can contend with OkSt and PSU. Who i consider the frontrunners along with us, with tOSU a step behind with the shirting of Snyder and H.Stieber coming off of two major elbow surgeries, one Tommy john on each elbow, expected to be back January. We'll see how that turns out if he can return to form or not.
Agree with prognosis for a good team in 2017. The concern is that Ohio State and Penn State are going to be stocked as well. I think it's a stretch to say we've been legitimate title contenders the past five years. We have not been within 10 points of the title...18 points shy in 2015, 31 points in 2014, 50.5 in 2013, 35.5 in 2012, and 11 in 2011. Only once in that span have we scored over 100 points. We've been a solid top-4 team with not enough studs. That's our challenge.
I don't see how anybody can disagree with the OP. If we don't land some top flight studs, the recent crop that we got (while very good) is not deep enough to sustain us. We need too many things to go perfect and need things to unravel in Happy Valley. We are counting on guys like Paddock, Holloway, Stoll and Wilke to be up there with the best college wrestlers in the country and maybe they will be, but signing a Mark Hall to help fill out the upper weights makes that title seem much more attainable going forward. Marinelli, Kemmerer and Turk with be earning points for the Hawks and soon, but they are going to need some help. We land Hall and Lee and all is right with the world and the Hawks are the favorite to win national titles again.
We've got 6 solid weights and 4 who knows weights (and when I say who knows I mean not an All-American and very few points at NCAA's - not written in stone however, so we'll see). That's not a very good formula IMO. I would have loved to see Gilman get another shot at Tomasello at NCAA's, he doesn't worry me as much as Mega when it comes to Gilman. If he keeps his head out of his hind end, he can beat everyone, including Megaludis. Clark needs to better fit the weight and he'll be hell on wheels, Brewer will of course be problematic if he remains at 133. I look for Clark to score a lot of points this year, all year. Sorensen needs to open up, that's the only thing keeping him off the top step IMO. It kept him from getting there last year, hopefully that hit home. IMO he's our best overall wrestler, and he was a RS Freshman and 4th (that's where the program is sadly). He just needs to believe and sky's the limit.
I think we'll see really good things out of Meyer. He's got "it", and its his spot now. He'll be a bright spot. Not sure what to think about Sammy, we know he's gifted, I guess we'll see. Burak will "robot" his way on to the podium somewhere. Sturdy and steady, keeps getting better.
We've got a shot, but its a long shot. As Tarp correctly stated, we've had decent placement but not a serious threat to win it in most of the last 5 years. Can't make hay that way without some serious improvement, which I don't see happening this year. Good thing these things aren't won on paper or message boards..............
