#1 Michigan St.
You won't find anyone with a different team in the preseason No. 1 spot. The Spartans debuted Monday at No. 1 in the AP Top 25 for the first time in program history. Coming off a Final Four showing, the biggest reason for MSU's positioning above all others is the fact it returns the borderline-consensus preseason pick for national player of the year, Cassius Winston. But the emergence of Xavier Tillman and then the growth of Aaron Henry sets up MSU to have as much strength, length, athleticism, veteran savvy and offensive creativity and integrity as any team in America. There is a snag, though: Josh Langford's foot injuries won't go away. That's a major downer; reports say he's not expected to be back until January at the earliest. Still, the Spartans set up as the best team if/when he's healthy. Maybe this team doesn't win a national title, but it's hard to make a case for any other club to be No. 1 before we tip off the season.
# 5 Maryland
By belief, and not by contrarian design, you'll find a number of teams throughout these rankings that are either ranked higher or lower than pretty much anywhere else you look. Maryland's one of those. I'm still a believer in Anthony Cowan, despite the fact he's not truly tapped into his potential the past two seasons. Jalen Smith could take a leap so big this season, he winds up playing himself into the 2020 draft's top 10. In January, freshman big Chol Marial could/should factor in. Defensive stalwart Darryl Morsell returns, too. Terps fans, it's been a long time since your team was assembled with this much talent and experience. No school in history has been No. 2 in the AP Poll for more weeks (26) and yet never been No. 1 than Maryland. Can this be the year?
# 14 Ohio St.
I'll buy Ohio State at a bargain. D.J. Carton could be the most utilized freshman in the Big Ten. Kaleb Wesson is probably the best post player in the league. Luther Muhammad is the best Big Ten guard you don't know about. Plus, Chris Holtmann's proven his coaching chops at this point. He's won 20 or more games six seasons straight despite doing that at three schools and with a lot of unexpected roster issues along the way in most of those seasons. Here, 69% of the team's minutes return, which is nice. The Buckeyes have the potential to boast a top-10 defense in the sport.
# 18 Purdue
The Boilermakers lose a top-five player in program history in Carsen Edwards, but they return three top-100 players in college basketball: Matt Haarms, Trevion Williams and Nojel Eastern. Plus, an interesting transfer plug-and-play guy in Jahaad Proctor (19.5 ppg at High Point), who will definitely eat up some of those shots Edwards was taking the past two seasons. Purdue should wind up having a deeper roster this season as well. I'd be surprised if Evan Boudreaux and Sasha Stefanovic don't get a lot of run and keep Purdue's offense humming. For the second time in his tenure, Matt Painter will have Purdue dancing for a sixth straight season.
# 28 Wisconsin
I do worry a bit when I think I'm optimistic on Wisconsin's big-picture standing in the sport, think about what the team was last season -- when it was good, not great -- and realize it nevertheless finished 16th at KenPom. But when you lose a top-three player in program history in Ethan Happ, I've gotta dock some points. The most tragic story of the offseason was UW assistant Howard Moore losing his wife and daughter and dog in a car accident, while he and his son survived. Moore is taking the season off, and our best is sent to him and his loved ones. D'Mitrik Trice, who has a wonderful feel for the game and gives Wisconsin good long-range variety, should step in as the MVP of the Badgers.
# 34 Iowa St.
Tyrese Haliburton is the national breakout player to know. He was spectacular playing for USA Basketball over the summer. He had a 136.8 ORtg at KenPom last season, third-best in the country, and is a top-five point guard in America. Not getting nearly enough pub heading into November.
#35 Illinois
It's been more than a decade since hopes were this high in Champaign. Brad Underwood begins his third season with the Illini and has four notable talents who should get Illinois to the NCAA Tournament: sophomore guard Ayo Dosunmu (likely first-round pick), sophomore PF Giorgi Bezhanishvili, junior guard Trent Frazier and freshman Kofi Cockburn. Welcome back to the table, Illinois.
# 38 Michigan
One of 60 schools with a coaching change, but no coaching hire was a bigger deal than Juwan Howard returning to Ann Arbor to replace John Beilein. Howard will have a steep curve to learn -- he's never coached in college -- but thankfully he gets one season of one of the toughest defenders in college hoops: senior point guard Zavier Simpson. I'm lower on UM than most and think it's right on the cut line for the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday. Franz Wagner's wrist injury to start the season hurts the cause.
# 50 Indiana
The Hoosiers lose about 40% of their production from last season, but I still feel as though I'm higher on Archie Miller's team than most. Could have a breakout transfer in Joey Brunk (via Butler), and it wouldn't surprise me if Trayce Jackson-Davis' overall production winds up top-three among Big Ten freshmen. Senior guard Devonte Green should be the best player in cream and crimson.
# 59 Iowa
If Iowa had been able to hold on to Isaiah Moss and Tyler Cook, it would be a borderline preseason top 25 team. The Hawkeyes do have an overlooked talent in sophomore Joe Wieskamp, who should hit approximately 45% of his 3-pointers from the small forward position.
# 72 Rutgers: Steve Pikiell has Rutgers at a truly respectable level -- having gone from 135 to 130 to 73 in the KenPom rankings in his time there -- and will rise yet again this season.
# 74 Penn State: The Nittany Lions have a top-25 player in Lamar Stevens (19.9 ppg, 7.7 rpg), but this was a 14-18 team last season with a bumpy offense. I'm an uncommon seller on PSU this season. We'll see.
# 79 Minnesota: I love me some Daniel Oturu, the Gophers' sophomore stretch power forward who can mold himself into an NBA player.
# 97 Northwestern: Seems like the Wildcats will turn to A.J. Turner to lead from the small forward spot. Things have stalled in Evanston.
#115 Nebraska: Fred Hoiberg can have the Cornhuskers vying for the NCAA Tournament about 16 months from now, but the first season will be rocky with all the changeover and an identity flip from the Tim Miles era. Only one player is back from last season's team!
#131 Northern Iowa: UNI needs to get its act together on both sides of the boards. The Panthers ranked 319th in offensive rebounding last season but were 12th in defensive rebounding -- the greatest disparity in the sport.
#153 Drake: Darian DeVries was one of the five most impressive first-year coaches last season, driving Drake to a 24-10 mark and second in the MVC.
353. Mississippi Valley State: The final school is one with a new coach -- former NBA guard Lindsey Hunter -- and a roster that's a complete rebuild and based mostly off junior college transfers.
A couple of observations:
1. I didn't put Kansas in here, but the Jayhawks are ranked at #2 and they have Moss averaging 15 ppg. I think Moss is going to have a lot of fun this year.
2. The Big Ten doesn't seem very strong this year. You've got Michigan St. at #1, Maryland at # 5, then Ohio St. drops to #14, #18 is Purdue then Wisconsin is at #28. The Big Ten is definitely top-heavy.
3. Indiana at #50! What's going on over there?
4. ISU is the first team from Iowa in the rakings. Not going to be a good year for the state of Iowa.
5. Rutgers is at # 72. Can anyone explain to me why Rutgers is in the Big Ten?
6. Lastly, I had no idea that there are 353 teams in division one basketball. That just seems ridiculous to the nth degree. Football has 130. And that seems ridiculous.
You won't find anyone with a different team in the preseason No. 1 spot. The Spartans debuted Monday at No. 1 in the AP Top 25 for the first time in program history. Coming off a Final Four showing, the biggest reason for MSU's positioning above all others is the fact it returns the borderline-consensus preseason pick for national player of the year, Cassius Winston. But the emergence of Xavier Tillman and then the growth of Aaron Henry sets up MSU to have as much strength, length, athleticism, veteran savvy and offensive creativity and integrity as any team in America. There is a snag, though: Josh Langford's foot injuries won't go away. That's a major downer; reports say he's not expected to be back until January at the earliest. Still, the Spartans set up as the best team if/when he's healthy. Maybe this team doesn't win a national title, but it's hard to make a case for any other club to be No. 1 before we tip off the season.
# 5 Maryland
By belief, and not by contrarian design, you'll find a number of teams throughout these rankings that are either ranked higher or lower than pretty much anywhere else you look. Maryland's one of those. I'm still a believer in Anthony Cowan, despite the fact he's not truly tapped into his potential the past two seasons. Jalen Smith could take a leap so big this season, he winds up playing himself into the 2020 draft's top 10. In January, freshman big Chol Marial could/should factor in. Defensive stalwart Darryl Morsell returns, too. Terps fans, it's been a long time since your team was assembled with this much talent and experience. No school in history has been No. 2 in the AP Poll for more weeks (26) and yet never been No. 1 than Maryland. Can this be the year?
# 14 Ohio St.
I'll buy Ohio State at a bargain. D.J. Carton could be the most utilized freshman in the Big Ten. Kaleb Wesson is probably the best post player in the league. Luther Muhammad is the best Big Ten guard you don't know about. Plus, Chris Holtmann's proven his coaching chops at this point. He's won 20 or more games six seasons straight despite doing that at three schools and with a lot of unexpected roster issues along the way in most of those seasons. Here, 69% of the team's minutes return, which is nice. The Buckeyes have the potential to boast a top-10 defense in the sport.
# 18 Purdue
The Boilermakers lose a top-five player in program history in Carsen Edwards, but they return three top-100 players in college basketball: Matt Haarms, Trevion Williams and Nojel Eastern. Plus, an interesting transfer plug-and-play guy in Jahaad Proctor (19.5 ppg at High Point), who will definitely eat up some of those shots Edwards was taking the past two seasons. Purdue should wind up having a deeper roster this season as well. I'd be surprised if Evan Boudreaux and Sasha Stefanovic don't get a lot of run and keep Purdue's offense humming. For the second time in his tenure, Matt Painter will have Purdue dancing for a sixth straight season.
# 28 Wisconsin
I do worry a bit when I think I'm optimistic on Wisconsin's big-picture standing in the sport, think about what the team was last season -- when it was good, not great -- and realize it nevertheless finished 16th at KenPom. But when you lose a top-three player in program history in Ethan Happ, I've gotta dock some points. The most tragic story of the offseason was UW assistant Howard Moore losing his wife and daughter and dog in a car accident, while he and his son survived. Moore is taking the season off, and our best is sent to him and his loved ones. D'Mitrik Trice, who has a wonderful feel for the game and gives Wisconsin good long-range variety, should step in as the MVP of the Badgers.
# 34 Iowa St.
Tyrese Haliburton is the national breakout player to know. He was spectacular playing for USA Basketball over the summer. He had a 136.8 ORtg at KenPom last season, third-best in the country, and is a top-five point guard in America. Not getting nearly enough pub heading into November.
#35 Illinois
It's been more than a decade since hopes were this high in Champaign. Brad Underwood begins his third season with the Illini and has four notable talents who should get Illinois to the NCAA Tournament: sophomore guard Ayo Dosunmu (likely first-round pick), sophomore PF Giorgi Bezhanishvili, junior guard Trent Frazier and freshman Kofi Cockburn. Welcome back to the table, Illinois.
# 38 Michigan
One of 60 schools with a coaching change, but no coaching hire was a bigger deal than Juwan Howard returning to Ann Arbor to replace John Beilein. Howard will have a steep curve to learn -- he's never coached in college -- but thankfully he gets one season of one of the toughest defenders in college hoops: senior point guard Zavier Simpson. I'm lower on UM than most and think it's right on the cut line for the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday. Franz Wagner's wrist injury to start the season hurts the cause.
# 50 Indiana
The Hoosiers lose about 40% of their production from last season, but I still feel as though I'm higher on Archie Miller's team than most. Could have a breakout transfer in Joey Brunk (via Butler), and it wouldn't surprise me if Trayce Jackson-Davis' overall production winds up top-three among Big Ten freshmen. Senior guard Devonte Green should be the best player in cream and crimson.
# 59 Iowa
If Iowa had been able to hold on to Isaiah Moss and Tyler Cook, it would be a borderline preseason top 25 team. The Hawkeyes do have an overlooked talent in sophomore Joe Wieskamp, who should hit approximately 45% of his 3-pointers from the small forward position.
# 72 Rutgers: Steve Pikiell has Rutgers at a truly respectable level -- having gone from 135 to 130 to 73 in the KenPom rankings in his time there -- and will rise yet again this season.
# 74 Penn State: The Nittany Lions have a top-25 player in Lamar Stevens (19.9 ppg, 7.7 rpg), but this was a 14-18 team last season with a bumpy offense. I'm an uncommon seller on PSU this season. We'll see.
# 79 Minnesota: I love me some Daniel Oturu, the Gophers' sophomore stretch power forward who can mold himself into an NBA player.
# 97 Northwestern: Seems like the Wildcats will turn to A.J. Turner to lead from the small forward spot. Things have stalled in Evanston.
#115 Nebraska: Fred Hoiberg can have the Cornhuskers vying for the NCAA Tournament about 16 months from now, but the first season will be rocky with all the changeover and an identity flip from the Tim Miles era. Only one player is back from last season's team!
#131 Northern Iowa: UNI needs to get its act together on both sides of the boards. The Panthers ranked 319th in offensive rebounding last season but were 12th in defensive rebounding -- the greatest disparity in the sport.
#153 Drake: Darian DeVries was one of the five most impressive first-year coaches last season, driving Drake to a 24-10 mark and second in the MVC.
353. Mississippi Valley State: The final school is one with a new coach -- former NBA guard Lindsey Hunter -- and a roster that's a complete rebuild and based mostly off junior college transfers.
A couple of observations:
1. I didn't put Kansas in here, but the Jayhawks are ranked at #2 and they have Moss averaging 15 ppg. I think Moss is going to have a lot of fun this year.
2. The Big Ten doesn't seem very strong this year. You've got Michigan St. at #1, Maryland at # 5, then Ohio St. drops to #14, #18 is Purdue then Wisconsin is at #28. The Big Ten is definitely top-heavy.
3. Indiana at #50! What's going on over there?
4. ISU is the first team from Iowa in the rakings. Not going to be a good year for the state of Iowa.
5. Rutgers is at # 72. Can anyone explain to me why Rutgers is in the Big Ten?
6. Lastly, I had no idea that there are 353 teams in division one basketball. That just seems ridiculous to the nth degree. Football has 130. And that seems ridiculous.
