Fran recruits the guys and put out lineups that are are mismatched defensively/on boards. Being mentally tough is part of winning. Bo Ryan's teams used to win nearly every close game---he recruited guys that were strong mentally, confident, competitive on both offense and defense.
The statistical odds that Iowa would miss all three 1 and 1's is pretty low---less than 10% based on the FT percentages. Yet they did---pressure of the moment contributed---mentally weak, part of a losing is losing confidence.
In UCLA game, the odds that UCLA would make their first 9 shots was extremely low. The odds that Wisconsin and UCLA would be able to shoot north of 60% from 3pt line is pretty low. At some point these statistical oddities are a trend---the defenses/lineups Fran puts out are enabling opponents to excel.